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I'm starting to realize how much variance affects results. 200k of break even although i am currently on a 35bi downswing so I was doing ok prior to that. I guess 200k hands is still a small sample. The mental strength needed to deal with variance really is huge. I'm not sure if I'm cut out for it, I've been punished over and over again for doing the right thing and it's affecting my mental health. Going to take a break and re-evaluate. Really is scary how badly things can go. Even at stakes where you might have a considerable edge. For all the hundreds of thousands of players trying to make it at poker statistically there will always be outliers (1000s of them) who might be winning players but just haven't run as well so never got to realize their potential. Maybe I'm one of them, who knows, there is always so much doubt involved in trying to gauge your own talent. Anyways just thought I'd try and put my thoughts into words because i'm struggling to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

Goodluck people hope you run better than I did.

5 Comments

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wolfobert 10 years, 4 months ago

you are not alone..
i'm quite sure i'm beating micros and even small stakes but when you on a downer it feels like hell and nothing works out. i think its important to focus on the hand you are playing at the moment and also to play within your bankroll and move down sometimes... gl!

gargamel_fk 10 years, 4 months ago

your post is so wrong on so many levels.
Firstly you are focused on external things you have no control on.
Secondly you avoid responsibility. Could you play better than you play now, play more,tables select better, work on improving,analyzing other regs that give you hell how they play?? The list could probably go on and on.
There is so many things that you can better yet you just chose to bullshit yourself so you could feel better about yourself. If you ever want to achieve something in your life just stop perceiving things the way you do now. It achieves nothing. It is just victimized way of looking at things and even if that's true that you are amazingly good and whats happening is just variance focusing on it makes things only worse not better. So stop doing it.
Being Results Oriented

TheRockyLobster 10 years, 4 months ago

Thanks for the link. I have no doubt I need to improve a lot, but I'm also fairly sure I'm good enough to beat the stakes I play. I was just trying to articulate my own limited experiences with variance. Being somewhat new to poker I'm very ignorant of variance. Even if it is not something i can control I don't think I should ignore it, but I do agree victimizing myself won't help. I think it's important to spend some time looking at the affects variance has on results because understanding is an important step in acceptance. Studying the game includes more than just learning strategy, you also want to learn about the nature of the game itself. The point of my reply is I don't think I'm "wrong on so many levels". I do think it is important to think about variance. I also agree I do need to take more responsibility for my results and I don't think I should let it affect my mental health, but that's a skill I need to learn. That article you linked looks like a good place to start learning.

gargamel_fk 10 years, 4 months ago

I believe there is a video series "Tolerance" on deucescracked by threads13 where he talks about Variance and dealing with results orientation.
Just don't watch anything else from him because he is terrible at poker. But the Tolerance serie is pretty good.

deadgambino 10 years, 4 months ago

I hear what you're saying and variance is definitely a factor; but its not the deciding factor because its your attitude that determines your altitude. One man once posed a question which we should all ask ourselves - who is the happier man, he who has braved the storm of life and lived or he who has stayed securely on shore and merely existed?

This is one of the best motivational speeches I've heard and I think that it might help you put things into focus. I felt as though it was speaking to me when I was on a downswing some time ago and it really gave me a perception realignment.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kt1ZFqHmSwA

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