zorgar
23 points
Call turn. Your hand is massively underrepresented and he can literally have any hand with this line and so his "chance" of overbluffing is just incredibly high.
Aug. 7, 2016 | 8:20 p.m.
One thing that comes to mind is how someone structures his 3bet range in nlhe HU, where he uses a certain range for the first 20 minutes and then switches to annother range of the same size but with different hands that have overall very similar equity preflop.
June 27, 2016 | 9:49 a.m.
Why 3,5bb open and why pot flop?
June 12, 2016 | 8:06 p.m.
No, because more people folded unplayable hands before you and thus increased the chance of playable hands for the people behind them. Also board textures should look different (slightly). I dont know how much of a difference this makes, but you should open slightly tighter OTB 9-handed compared to 6-handed.
To give you an example for this:
Suppose a game with 3 players, you know bu/sb will not fold an ace and thus raise first in if they have one. Suppose the button folded to you and its your turn in the sb, you now know that the button did not have an ace, so there must be all 4 aces left in the deck and thus all Ax combos. You now also know that all non-Ax must be reduced because he folded a non Ax
Scenario 1: Relative Ax combo to all combos (50x49 - 46x45)/(50x49) = 15,51%
Scenario 2: Relative Ax combo to all combos (52x51 - 48x47)/(52x51) = 14,93%
If you were just 2 players you would not have this information, this effect is obviously cumulative the more players folded to you.
June 9, 2016 | 12:06 p.m.
Your AI equity is kind of irrelevant when you cant ever realize it.
May 29, 2016 | 5:20 p.m.
You can cold 4bet pre here. But on this texture hero calls.
May 27, 2016 | 5:12 p.m.
Only hand that can realistically beat you is 68 OTR and this must be heavily discounted by his betsizing imo. Pretty clear valuebet OTR imo, dont bet big though.
May 23, 2016 | 12:32 a.m.
Well i was thinking that i must have a pretty clear range advantage OTR with the range i hastily made in my head for the river. Then i tried to figure out how many combos i could bluff and if this jj combo wasnt too high up my range. I also posted the results which i obviously didnt want to do here.
I also didnt think that this particular villain had a well enough constructed 3betting range to cover the board in general. As an afterthought i would probably check in the same spot the next time and take the free ev because i dont think villain is betting this river pretty much ever.
May 15, 2016 | 2:29 p.m.
I mean thats 2 combos, i can realistically have 55-99 (16) 8d9d and 9dTd vs his sizing (even though i would probably call a little less).
May 13, 2016 | 3:35 p.m.
BB: $25.55
UTG: $25.00 (Hero)
MP: $26.12
CO: $25.00
BN: $19.25
CO wins and shows two pair, Aces and Fives.
CO wins $48.35
Rake is $2.00
May 13, 2016 | 3:26 p.m.
Hand is wp. Could also check turn because your hand either has about 100% equity or none. I much prefer betting turn small though
May 12, 2016 | 4:11 p.m.
Well the Invoker thinks the button is exremely polarized and overbluffing OTT. He thinks he doesnt have enough 8x to support his bluffing range and he thinks kqo is likely ahead of the bluffing range. Ive no idea if any of the assumptions are correct but thats probably what he was thinking.
May 4, 2016 | 6:33 p.m.
UTG: $45.92
CO: $36.09
BN: $25.00
SB: $33.39 (Hero)
May 3, 2016 | 4:16 a.m.
Something is wrong with the betsize, i did not intend to bet so little at all. And you are right.
April 29, 2016 | 6:22 p.m.
Maybe im off here, but i feel that JJ in general is so high up my range that it should try to get to showdown with a high frequency. When i bet fold this hand i also need to be cbetting very little on this board overall to avoid getting pushed off my range
April 29, 2016 | 5:57 p.m.
Yeah i dont agree with my cbet tbh. I was thinking the exact same thing in the hand i should probaby cbehind a huge chunk of range on this flop.
April 29, 2016 | 5:39 p.m.
SB: $20.81
BB: $25.92 (Hero)
UTG: $18.28
MP: $26.39
CO: $25.35
April 29, 2016 | 5:25 p.m.
WP bb sizing means you can call the 3bet pretty easily here, calling 33 vs utg is close though.
April 29, 2016 | 3 p.m.
I want to compare different BU opening sizing (with about 51% RFI) to the corresponding BB defense Frequencies. These are just estimations and i cant go into exact detail because there are too many unknowns.
With 80% EQ realization:
BU opens 2,0bb -> BB needs 28% Realized Equity -> BB defends 100%
BU opens 2,5bb -> BB needs 34% Realized Equity -> BB defends 84,6%
BU opens 3,0bb -> BB needs 39% Realized Equity -> BB defends 57,5%
With 75% EQ realization:
BU opens 2,0bb -> BB needs 30% Realized Equity -> BB defends 100%
BU opens 2,5bb -> BB needs 36% Realized Equity -> BB defends 73,1%
BU opens 3,0bb -> BB needs 41% Realized Equity -> BB defends 49,3%
With 70% EQ realization:
BU opens 2,0bb -> BB needs 32% Realized Equity -> BB defends 93,6%
BU opens 2,5bb -> BB needs 39% Realized Equity -> BB defends 57,5%
BU opens 3,0bb -> BB needs 44% Realized Equity -> BB defends 38,5%
With 65% EQ realization:
BU opens 2,0bb -> BB needs 34% Realized Equity -> BB defends 84,6%
BU opens 2,5bb -> BB needs 42% Realized Equity -> BB defends 43,9%
BU opens 3,0bb -> BB needs 47% Realized Equity -> BB defends 30,6%
- We know that the shallower the stacks the higher the equity realization should be
- We know that if we are in position we generally have higher equity realization
Im now wondering why anyone would open more than 2bb from bu vs regs? Arent you just inflating the pot and thus increasing BB's equity realization? Also arent you getting the highest fold equity relative to you opening size the smaller you open because BB has a harder time realizing his EQ the smaller you open?
Im not even talking about you having to open less from the BU if you open bigger.
April 9, 2016 | 3:13 p.m.
Villain is much more likely to have the nutflushdraw OTT and your entire range will want to protect the turn if he has the nutflushblocker (which imo is pretty likely). I dont like betting small at all here.
I get your idea but i dont think it applies to this turnbecause he has WAY more nutflushdraws OTT.
I will look into this spot further because i might be totally off here.
April 7, 2016 | 8:50 p.m.
If you have these hands with a very high frequency in you turn range and are sure that the ah blocker is that bad for you then folding might be an option.
March 27, 2016 | 11:35 p.m.
I understand what you are saying exploitatively, but from a minimum defense frequency standpoint this hand is an absolute MUST call vs half pot size. I dont know what else you are intending to call (probably ak wihtout hearts and flushdraws).
March 27, 2016 | 11:15 p.m.
SB: Cyfron: $52.55
BB: yep-itsahemi: $18.91
UTG: abuserkid: $32.68 (Hero)
MP: neukrocen: $61.28
CO: IFlipTheNuts: $24.09
March 25, 2016 | 8:38 p.m.
Yeah in the hand i noticed this too. Problem is that the hand i could protect my range with block his ak a lot. I really need to think this through.
March 24, 2016 | 6:53 p.m.
SB: $27.04 (Hero)
BB: $57.18
UTG: $27.64
MP: $8.30
CO: $32.27
March 24, 2016 | 6:33 p.m.
SB: $77.43
BB: $59.15
UTG: $25.00
MP: $34.50
CO: $25.00 (Hero)
Hes not drawing dead as you can see and you certainly must bet turn bigger.
Aug. 8, 2016 | 2:05 p.m.