ytyttyler

i think this is a b/f spot. you can beat tje AQ he decides to look you up with or JJ or 1010 if he thinks your are trying to steal when he checks back turn. and if he raises you then you can just call with your QQ and slow played AA and decide on a frequency that make sense based off hes raise sizing

and i mean that he bluffs hands that are not natural bluffs

This spot seems very strange because when you check/fold the river you are at the top of your range. Unless, you are going to check QQ and hope for a bluff from villain but that is still only 3 combos of hands you c/c in this spot. that being said this is a very weird spot and you might just be better off folding if the population trend is for him to only have AA. i still feel like he bluffs a solid number of hands here. you have under repped the hell out of your hand and it feels like a spot he can bail himself out with a shove

In the end, I completely messed up this hand which is why I posted it. I pushed on the turn. Only to have the MP reshove with a straight and BB smart enough to muck 88 face-up. shoving the turn made zero sense.. over played the hand like some shit..

its not three handed.. only included people that continued to the flop

No we it is a 6 max game, sorry for confusion i had to type it out

do you agree with the check back on the turn as played?

once we remove QQ from his range we are getting the odds to call. but based on the description of the player this would be a really strange play for him to make with anything worse than Q7 suited...

when you donk the turn here are you representing 99 and JJ, and then some pair plus gutshots for blance like AJ for example?

I dont know if this makes a ton of sense because bet/call on this turn looks more like a weird line for a set. I am thinking he made the call on the end because your donk on the turn looks like draw heavy type of play here and he assumed the J on the river only helped a small portion of your range if your sets are discounted

i just dont know what the BB has in his range that is a reraise for me on the flop. i guess he has K8, Q8, J10 (AJ and A10 would probably flat). and then he has 88, and card removed QQ (though he would likely raise preflop)

yea i agree with this analysis. it is possible to find enough bluffs in his range to make this spot right on the fringe, but that is assuming he is playing all his bluff this way. and depends on him deciding to bet this much on the river to be borderline. I think in a vacuum he has you here

Yea I think this spot is very close with the ranges you selected. But I think that you gave him a pretty tight call 3-bet range, if villain is sticky with hands like K9s, Q9s, or J9s pre then he has a larger value range then you are giving him credit for and it becomes an easier fold.

i just dont understand how checking back this river is ever an option after checking the turn. it doesnt get much better... seems really nitty

As played by checking the turn you are leaving his range as wide as it was when call the flop, obviously. So on the river here he has AQ, KQ, some QJs, 66 - JJ, AX floats, very small chance of holding onto A5.

You line looks fairly weak as played. So you are under repping your hand. He needs to be successful ~45% of the time to show an instant profit. and if you fold all the way up to AA in your range he is most certainly getting it.

This is sort of a strange way to think of it but if you checking the turn with AA is pointless if you are going to fold to a raise with it OTR. the check on the turn is inducing this type of play and hopefully you are balancing nuts with flush draws when checking back the turn if that is your thought process

the thing is..you are repping KQ, QJ, 77 and 33. So at this sizing if you fold your Q he is getting well more than the required folds if you call with only 77 and 33. 6 combos of full houses and 24 combos of Qs that fold. not including Q10 that is also possible

i am just wondering. so you are putting him on 77 or 33 only because he would most likely raise AQs pre and probably AQo. so he has 6 combos of winners. dont you think folding KQ here is a majorly exploitable play? what do you call 3bet with then other than full houses? he can just rep full houses if you 4bet the river he can fold and print money with a 3 bet here.. just a thought

not that it isnt likely that he doe 3bet very strong. i just mean in terms of raising here with the Q. youre basically opening up to a reraise and if he reraises you have to fold.

i guess he could have AA if he was playing really out of the ordinary.. its just a weird spot because he has no natural bluffs

As played it is a close to call or fold. better play with clear decision is check/call river. Your hand is too strong be be in a bet/fold here

if you check call he has 77,88, 98, 97, 56, 10-9, maybe even 1010, JJ. that would may bet that you beat on OTR

When i look at this hand trying to figure out the villains range, it seems like he is very capped. Also, doesnt it seem unlikely you would check a set to him OTF? I feel like you have to discount that part of your range as that is not a 100% chance you dont c-bet here

I think it really depends on the villain at this limit he easily could be doing this spew with A10 if he is a agro fish. He may have even floated KQ and just thinks you are bluffing with tons of straight and flush draws. Not to mention you tie all the other AK. I think that wouldve raised his sets on the flop there is no reason for him to pick this point to do it if he was slow playing them.

When he bets the pot like this you need to be calling him with AK as it is high in your range here. and you need to be defending 50% of the time or he can print money with this jam