yoren

Very reasonable.

This is a fold with all those hands 1 away from the money with 3.5 buy-in bubble. You can easily fold into the money. If you double here as a 60/40 equity favorite for instance, after a double your stack needs to be worth 1/(.6) or about 166% of what it's currently worth. I doubt that's true.

Worst value bet for OOP on river is AJcc? Then bet/call range would be something like straight+?

Of the three players, your range is the weakest on the flop, you should be auto checking everything unless you have a good exploitive reason to lead.

If leading is good on the flop, you'd most likely need to make the assumption that players are overfolding to it, so betting the river is quite inconsistent. You should expect btn's river range to be fairly Ax heavy which is rarely folding at that price on that board.

Theory wise? It's terrible. Exploitive wise? Maybe it's good. But if you're going to assume that a flop lead or flop/turn double barrel is going to be good, then you probably shouldn't be betting this river.

It's not an outrageous post. But you're missing some information needed.

How many players are left in the entire tourney, and how many players off the money are you?

If you're only 1 away from the money and you have 9.5 bbs with several shorter stacks around, it's almost certainly a fold when a mincash is 3.5x the buy-in.

I think your line is fine.

I think you might consider checking back flop or betting smaller with range. Betting this hand mighty imply that you're betting 100%, tho you do get a bit of value from a few worse Ace highs and King highs that might call and checkdown with you.

You're filtering for hands where your 3-bet is 100% called and you flopped nothing. A lot of the EV from 3-betting hands that are likely to become air comes from winning the pot pre flop. You get none of that EV when you assume you always run into their flat vs 3b range which you've done here.

I assume the EV values are over the course of the whole hand and not just postflop.

Also you filtered for when your hand is high card. That includes when you flop flush draws and gutters and AK high on dry boards. Postflop bets in those spots will be profitable.

You can't learn much from this filter.

serial mixer

Identify your problem areas, then prioritize working on high value areas first.

This might give you an idea of where to look (credit to Kalupso for linking this in another thread): http://www.husng.com/content/meaningful-and-meaningless-errors

I think, more specifically, it's easy to try to learn too fast. If you change 10 things in your game at once as opposed to changing one or two, it's harder to figure out which changes are working, why they are working, and how to efficiently incorporate each new change into your existing game.

It's better to know 5 things very well than to know 20 things kind of well.

The 14/2.5 came from having the 14 assumed value combos on river. If we bet 2/3rd pot, our opponent's price is 2.5:1. So we need to have 14/2.5 = 5.4 bluffs on river to make our opponent indifferent with his bluff catchers.

Seems like blocker effects will have a fairly large effect on value/bluff ratios. It's probably good to choose bluffs that contain cards the frequently show up in our value hands so that blockers in our opponent's hand will block our value and our bluffs and thus the value/bluff ratio won't be thrown off so much (having a K is probably pretty good?).

thumbs up

42:20, KJs, what do you 4b/get in pre flop? What's worst suited hand/pair you flat?

If you get to turn with AKo/TT/ATs (assuming you 4b AKs), that's 9+3+2 = 14 combos. Seems like that many combos should be able to support all your suited broadway combos as bluffs.

If you chose 2/3, 2/3 sizing, seems like you should be able to support 14/(2.5) or 5.4 bluffs on the river + (14+14/2.5)/2.5 ~= 7.8 bluffs on turn, so 13.4 bluffs total.

If you chose 2/3, pot sizing, seems like you should support 14/2 or 7 bluffs on river + (14+7)/2.5 = 8.4 bluffs on turn, so 15.4 bluffs total.

Let me know what you think.
1) I'm not sure if this approach is valid
2) Seems like blockers in villain's hand can have a decent effect on your bluff to value ratio here.
3) What's your minimum 2 street hand on turn/river assuming bricks, AQ?

I liked the focus on simplified strategies. It's much easier to translate this sort of stuff into my own game.

"This guy raises positional like this: 25/17/14/10/5 and folds 81% to 3bets"

Does that mean he opens 5% UTG? If so, you're 3-betting into a range that is like AQ/99+ (5.1%).

The preflop 3-bet is quite bad vs such a tight opening range.

When he checks twice, then c/c, he's always showdown bound and pretty much has one pair, AT/Axs/KJ/QJ/JTs or T9s/98s/88 sometimes and not much else. So if he's bluffing, which showdown bound hand is he bluffing with? AcTx or like KJo w/ one club seem like candidate hands, but he could lead AT on turn some % and at river most ppl either don't even consider cramming or would rather bluff catch. There's a relatively small number of hands he might turn into a bluff vs if he was peeling from the BB for instance, because he's peeling maybe like 10-13% of hands preflop in the SB, maybe he gets to the river with 45 one pair combos, maybe a bit less, probably only 15 combos that contain one club. He's jamming into a range that very much has flushes, including nut flushes (maybe not when you size so big on turn tho). If situation was reversed, how often do you find yourself bluffing? I'm inclined to think he has A6cc/A8cc/KJcc/QJcc a bunch here.

I've compared A2s to ATo. You're comparing A2s to a range of ATs/ATo. And your stoves aren't accurate. In your screenshots there's a note about the syntax. "'s' does not mean 'suited' in generic syntax."

"To say that shoving AT is a waste you gotta show the EV of playing AT post flop as a defense with the stack setup. Or prove that A2s is a better shove than AT."

Demonstrating conclusively that it is better to put ATo in a different range is not an easy task I'd think since there are a number of variables, opening range, call jam range, R when flat. Not claiming my word is definitive. Nor have you shown the opposite is true.

Qualitatively the argument is that if you're going to build your ranges, and you can only shove either A2s-A4s or ATo, and If swapping A2s-A4s in for ATo doesn't change your opponent's response, then I'd rather flat with ATo than with A2s-A4s because I think its flatting EV is higher with ATo than for the group of A2s-A4s. It's possible that all those hands are shoves. But I wonder if we should have a 30 bb cramming range at all. Or if maybe we should be shoving all of those hands.

As far whether A2s is a better shove than ATo, you can just stove the two vs different tight ranges, and usually A2s is going to perform better. But there are complications, right? Blockers change how often you get called. And shoving one over the other could cause your opponent to shift his strategy. Those effects could negate the equity boost.

Examples:

Assume open 61%, called by TT+, how often called, equity vs calling range
called 27 of 755 combos vs A2s, 3.58%, 30.0%
called 24 of 733 combos vs ATo, 3.27%, 26.5%

Assume open 61%, called by TT+/AK, how often called, equity vs calling range
called 39 of 755 combos vs A2s, 5.17%, 29.9%
called 36 of 733 combos vs ATo, 4.91%, 26.3%

"I don't get much of the explanation, well I can defend KJs profitably so I will defend. Ranges should be designed to exploit maximum the opponent strategy and a hand that can be a profitable defend can also be a profitable 3bet if you have a well set up plan."

Usually, there are a limited number of hands you can put in a range, in which case you should choose the best ones.

You have to be pretty confident that he doesn't shove AJo/KQs/ATs to fold AQo here. If he's shoving something really tight like 88+/AQ/AJs, you're losing 500 chips w/ AQo and winning ~500 chips with AQs.

Adding hands / AQo call cEV
77 / -330
ATs / +27
KQs / +347
AJo / +1325
66 / +1321
KJs / +1478

You get the idea. If he's actually the type to start shoving like KQo/ATo/A7s, a fold would cost you like 3.5 bbs.

I assumed the MP flatter was going to wake up with AKs/AA about 10% of the time that he flatted us.

Just as a starting point, if button is opening 60% and calling only JJ+/AK, then shoving nets 128k, or about 3.65 bbs. And the scenario where you're called and you lose occurs about 2% of the time.

Looks good to me. If you want more value from posting a spot like this, you should consider posting at least a guess as to what your opponent is shoving.

I would think that AKo is good enough to induce even with two short stacks. I'm curious whether ppl would prefer making it 200 to discourage flatcalls or making it 175 (or even smaller) with range to give some room for opponent to 4b/fold. Anyhow, you make it incredibly easy on your opponent when he has hands like AQ/AJ/AT/KQ/KJ/bunch of other good suited or connected stuff when you cram hands that will likely put money in behind if you don't shove. Shoving hands like AT seems like an incredible waste when you're never ever getting called by worse and when that hand plays really well in a single raised pot. I'd think A2s is a better shove than AT, but I would shove neither.

Thoroughly done. Very high quality material once again.

Very much enjoyed the format of this series.

R 43k UTG 16.6%, 33+ A7s+ A5s-A4s ATo+ K9s+ KJo+ Q9s+ J9s+ T9s 98s
C 34k MP1 8.3%, 66+ ATs+ AJo+ KQs

(From Hold'em Resources, chipEV nash sim)

looks fine, reasoning is fine, i would be a bit concerned that his river range might have too much Kx+ that he decides not to fold to attempt bluffing tho

Strange value line, but an even stranger bluff line. Also, I question whether he's legitimately competent playing 14/11/4. So tight!

I guess i'm not most ppl, b/c i don't 3b AQ preflop as CO vs utg1 unless utg1 is very aggro. I would check either flop or turn. IDK what to do on river.

Wow