wikileakthis

I remember reading a thread on 2+2 some time ago that was monumental for me.

It was called (something along the lines of): "Nit/Station/Maniac: Guide for Basic Adjustment".

In a nutshell, by comparing Rock/Paper/Scissors to poker it explained how basic adjustment based on villain types could help improve Hero's bottom line.

Nit beats Station (by playing a tighter range and value betting thinly and getting paid by villain who does not fold often enough)

Station beats Maniac (by calling down too often and negating maniac's ability to steal pots by bluffing)

Maniac beats Nit (by forcing him into tricky situations through aggression and making the nit fold better hands).

Our adjustment to this villain should clearly be to station him to death and it would seem like you understand that. My worry however is that choosing to do so with such a trash hand will ultimately lead to a net loss over the long run as this hand is easily dominated even when we flop "gin".

I think you played it fine.

You are right that he has more 56 in his range than we do ours, but does he really have it that often in a 3b pot? Nahhhhh....

So I might throw in a small 2nd barrel to get value from 89Tx and random 8s, 99, TT that just turned a fd as well... But, it's not like checking back and getting to showdown is a mistake, cause as you said he has plenty of KK here, and we run the risk of getting c/r and having to fold the best hand some of the time...

You said in one of the other posts from this morning that people at this stake play pretty face up, and usually "announce" that they have a strong made hand like set/two pair...

Given the flop texture and the fact that we have an ace we have to at least discount and perhaps even remove AJ from his range.... Sure, it's still "possible", as is JJ.

So what else exactly are they valuebetting having taken such a passive line so far? KQ66? QT33? Honestly, c/folding this river is our worst option I think.

I would actually expect to see a ton of AKxx, KQTx/QT8x no hearts, or just random low flush draw type hands here.

To me, and I could be very wrong here, this is a clear spot to bet/fold for value against the average micro station villains who will call down A6 and think it's good some of the time and c/c against aggressive regs who have no showdown value with KQT no hearts. Of course, we will lose some of the time, I just don't expect it to be that often...

I use Jivaro. It's nowhere near as detailed in terms of stats and adjustability, and it doesn't have the perks (at least that I am aware of) such as hand replayer, leakfinder, player pool stats etc.... But it's simple and clean, which works for me.