wdres123

So I have another spot I'm confused about why the solver is doing what it's doing

Situation is K67ssx BTN vs BB, we c-bet 55% BB calls.

Sizings on the turn are 150%, 85% and 55%. We're doing a lot of overbetting here.

On the As we're doing no overbetting, despite this being a better card for our range than the Qs. Why is this the case? My only guess was that villain was check raising more Axss than Qxss so he gets here with more nut flushes, but that doesn't seem to be the case as a lot of Axss are still just calling. Any thoughts would be much appreciated

So the spot is small blind vs BTN 3b pot J84 monotone. From a range of sizes, the solver is c-betting about 50% for exclusively 1/3 sizing which makes a lot of sense. What confuses me is the frequency of checking on an offsuit J turn

Sizes here are 2/3, 55% and 1/3. I understand building a checking range here obviously but why is the solver checking so often? I thought this would be a card that favours our range more than BTN. Looking at a turn report, it's one of the worst cards for our range's equity behind a bunch of 5, 6, 7 and 8s. Why is this the case here? I thought we would have more Jx in range.

So I've been taking poker somewhat seriously for something like a year now. I've only really been putting in any reasonable volume for the last few months and up until the last month or so it's been relatively smooth sailing. As you can guess from this post that's not the case anymore. I guess I'm just looking for some advice or guidance on how to improve from here.

When I started I knew a bit about the game but was basically just a fish. Despite that starting out tbh it has felt very...easy. I started out 2 tabling at 5nl on ignition and beat it for something like 25 ev bb/100 over a few thousand hands. Obviously not a remotely big enough sample size, but I felt pretty comfortable in the game so I took a shot at 10nl. 10nl felt pretty similar and I put in about 15k hands before shot taking 25nl. 25nl did feel like a bit of a jump but I still felt relatively confident in the games. I again ran at something like ev 11 bb/100 over around 8k hands. Obviously I ran well, but I felt relatively confident in the games and was happy working on my game a bit more before shot taking 50 once I had a bit more of a roll. I started mixing in 25 zone as well which felt a good bit harder than reg tables but was good practice and made volume a lot easier.

Then this happened

The huge downswing is over the last couple weeks. It started at 25 zone so I went back to the reg tables exclusively as I wasn't really rolled for zone...and then just kept losing. I took a week off, dropped down to 10nl for a few sessions, studied more, did lots of session review, played only when I was fresh, but all of a sudden I just can't win anymore. I've had something like 11 losing sessions in a row, and am coming off a particularly bad one today that honestly makes me feel like just giving up. At this point it just feels like I've been on a heater for 30k hands before this. I love poker and want to continue to improve and move up but these last few sessions have just been so utterly miserable and at this point I'm really struggling to tell the difference between run bad and play bad. It feels like I've just lost all sense of what is good poker, and I'm having a really hard time being objective in session reviews and while playing etc. I still have so much work to do on my game, but it's not like the games I'm playing in are very tough (at all lol), which makes it even more frustrating when I consistently lose.

I guess my question after all the rambling is what is the best way to approach this? How do I know what is just variance and what needs a lot of work? Take more time off? Work even more on the technical game? Just give up? This has definitely unearthed some mental game problems which I plan on working on as well, but I'm just feeling overwhelmed with everything at this point and where to even start, and very demoralised. If you have read all these rambling so far I really appreciate it lol and any kind of guidance would be greatly appreciated.

I'm new to doing any solver work and have never really felt comfortable c-betting OOP so I thought I would start by looking at SB vs. BB SRP on K72r. I started with 1/3 and 3/4 sizing. Unsurprisingly the solver preferred the small sizing, but I was a bit surprised to see it only checking ~22% of the time. QQ and Q9o were checked highest frequency but still weren't pure checks. After getting called the solver is then checking for example ~86% of the time on a 2 turn. Forcing a range bet, the EV was 2.16 vs. 2.15 for the three sizings.

My interpretation is then that our range advantage is significant enough that even with positional disadvantage we can comfortably range bet. We then protect our range by checking very often on many turns. Does this seem right or am I missing something in my interpretation?

So I feel like I'm at a point where I want to start getting into looking at some spots/building ranges etc. independently. Obviously solvers would make a lot of sense, but I currently don't have a computer that could run a solver and playing 25nl, the cost for something like pio plus a computer is a bit excessive. The ultimate goal is to get pio but not until I've moved up a bit further. Is there any software worth looking into to bridge that gap or do I just keep watching videos etc. and wait until later to get a solver? I've been looking into things like flopzilla for equity calculations but consensus seems that it is a bit redundant now. Any thoughts are appreciated.