SatayIsAwesome

how often are you X/C'ing the turn in this spot? on how to play the river, it depends on how you play with a sole 5h or even a weak pair...are ever turning your hand into a bluff.

For what its worth to me it's an easy call as played (to me that is, not fact), easy as in i'm not folding so i don't think about external factors, i'm just putting the money in...

however, I'f im raising turn with say a naked flush then i'm putting more money in on the river to try and balance the times i hit vs the times i miss :)

Essentially if he calls and loses he's out of contention for the premier league and it was a 125k buy in so, if he calls and gets it wrong it's 125k gone...

um as is, with no cbet stats, i flat, then if we think he's going to barrel light on the turn we adjust and call lighter than we normally would cant fold now, could raise but if he shipped it we're fucked. So flat... :)

Alsom i think the worst option pre would be to 4bet, fold or if you're at a loose table then flat. we lose part of our skill edge when we make the stack size shallower relative to the pot.

The lead was just so we don't have to call a bet, and if we check both turn and river, we are somewhat capped and could induce a bluff that would have us questioning our hand.

As far as the flop bet, i think we have to bet for protection and the fact we could pick it up right here, that A will be in our hands a lot more than it is his. Also by betting i tend to believe that we induce more bluffs than we do by checking.

OTT, i check around 65-80%, seemingly straight forward.

OTR, i tend to lead out here, but only for like <1/3 pot, we lose money on the Jx's that are most likely checking, but save on the Ax that will probably go for value (although if he had one he'd probably bet turn) and we get money from the 8x's and 99's ;)

This is weird spot, although if we decide betting flop is the option we want to use, then i think when the turn is a blank we need to bet again..most of the hands if not all of the hands that out flopped us are raising OTF. especially the HJ's hand, any 2pair+ hand is raising, theres no way he's flatting when any A,10,9 or heart would crush his flopped made hand.

At first i though the line taken by the HJ was super steroid strong but then i took out the hands that would have to raise flop...and he's not left with alot.. and i think this is exactly how he could and would play a FD.

Overall i tend to think that a check is the best option OTF, what do you do if they raise? just a recipe for bad choices...but as is with the passive play from the vills and the HJ, and the fact the river blanked out i think its a call. :)

I always tend to air on the side of less 5bets, unless they are folding an exploitatively high amount to 5bets, i think over all we tend to lose equity.. are we a better player? well i hope so, so lets flat and out play our opponents. If i was playing Mr.Galfond and i thought he was 4betting me often sure then i would 5bet knowing that i'm reducing his edge but if i was playing my 8 year old cousin, i think i'm just going to flat...

Soz if this isnt specific to your situation... just thought it was worth saying. :)

Ok bit confusing but...what will he have often? i think his passive line on turn make me think that a set is a little bit unlikely, and i think 77's give up before river.

most of the flopped 2p raise flop and are unlikely in the first place, 10x9x can show up but i think he again flats most of the time pre.. I think the over pairs that bet flop are betting turn, So by river, the range i give him, are like missed FD's and single pairs, of course he could an 8 but there aren't many combos, A8, 78, 98, 88's and he could have some badly played sets...

as is i think its a check, mainly as i dont think he has much that will call...and it would be bad for us if he spazzed and raised.

73 hands isnt all that conclusive..SO

I don't think the bet is all that bad.. I'm probably just X/C here but i cant see how a bet can be all that bad, how many Q's are there in his range? AQ, KQ are unlikely, Q5? isn't calling that often pre QJ, Q9 gives up on turn a bunch..It only leaves Q10, when realistically the vill will have a spade draw alot more often..

So although i'm not betting i don't think its that bad...i think as your opponents get better it becomes more profitable to X/C, but at this limit, there's the added equity that the vill will spaz out and read your bet as weak and just ship it with like 56ss...

yeah i am, you only have around a pot sized bet left so id push...

So confusing, what are his 4bet stats? have sub'd to thread...No idea, but i'm guess i'm calling lol.

How often was he limping pairs pre? assuming he wasn't all that often then i call...maybe he picked up the FD on the turn with some pair and now is continuing to try and take you off your perceived Ax.

Having position on vill I'd flat turn, you gain the extra value from all his bluffs that would give up on your raise and i don't think you need to protect against much. :)

So arrrrg, when i read this i would like to say oh i guess i'm hating it but i'm folding, the raise is so small makes is so hard to be a bluff, but at the table i think i'm like ohh well i guess i suck...Call lol. 

I don's think x/f flop is correct, what is your sample size? what other stats about turn and river play do we have that are reliable?

I'm indifferent about a x/r vs a x/c vs a cbet, i think i tend to go with x/c, we have overs to the 8, with backdoor straight and flush draws, so i think x/c is best but, if you can pick it up here..then sure.

Once you x/r flp and he calls, i don't love the massive size of your turn bet, but then again i don't love almost pot sized turn bets in general, If i'd x/r flop then in was a total blank then i'm probably x/d turn, but when the kc hits, i think its a bet again story, but a smaller bet, like 30 something.

Then on the river after you bet so much on the turn and he just flatted i think its nearly all spew. i think the only thing you get rid of with this bet is A8 and i really don't know how often that shows up here.

Overall, i would x/c flop, either lead or x/r turn, then decide on river.. :)

I could be wrong (probably am) but if i'm going to play straight forward i think I'm almost checking my whole limping range...although i guess that if the flush completes you will only get value from other medium++ flushes.

I think the first error was limping and pricing everyone in, i know you dont want to be blown off your hand, but when this happens its horrible when you get in this position, no idea where you are and you can only guess your behind..

Ok so its a call no doubt. you have the third best hand so that's it.

But if you want more of a reason, the hands I'd put in this range at 10nl, would be 10's (not often, but a little bit) JJ's, QQ's KK's AA's (Less likely as you have blockers to these) then there's AKxx AKss, (again not often) AQss and possibly AQxx but not sure about that...and maybe even like a really bad played 77's or something close, (i don't really count this but it will show up)

So there's two hands your not beating and around 7 your either beating or flipping. So Call :)

No I'm not, I don't think this is a bluff all that often, so i don't see why flat when you obviously have the best hand. When you 5bet your hand is some what face up which isn't great, but just make it like something between $12.25 and $14.75, maybe even as high as $16 (if you have that dynamic)...that way when he calls, you put him in a weird position with your remaining stack size. you would have a little over $10 in to an almost $30 pot...i know a lot of players, who just call off their stack super light or ship it on the flop light, hoping you fold. just because they cant get away from the stack to pot ratio. 

as played seems ok...little passive on the flop, it was a weird $2 bet OTT by the vill. with the board and the weird line taken by the vill i think passive and in position seem best...the more i think about it, the turn bet i think is the vill playing face up and is worried about the K, he just does't want to call a bigger turn bet from you. I think the river is a bad bluff with 10's JJ's or QQ's but i'm just guessing...lol

your though process seems fine to me, except the part where you want to fold, lol. seeing as how you could easily be on a draw with your perceived flop range, the vill is going to be raising it up often with any hand from a decent Q and up...that's my though process. then i take a set of qq's out of his range for the most part, so all he could really have that's got us beat is two sets and possibly 2 pair(not often)...so thats i.

Doesnt seem like a big raise from the vill either..but thats just me.

Horrible run out, Play seems fine. 10j, any 2 spades, Aq, Kq, Qj, Q10, you have beat then theres the 55's and 99's that are in his range, qq's are unlikely same with AA's, Maybe Q9, but it seems like you are easily ahead of his range, so getting it in is good.

The confusion i have is that, don't we gain extra value vs the hands that are more inclined to take a pot control route? that wont fold to a bet here. Plus if we find an opponent thats folding here to a turn lead, we'd be able to take advantage of that...

I think a big part of his range is overs to this board and the occasional flush...So we lose more to the flushes he has but when compared to all the single heart hands he could have, and over pair hands. How is checking are highest equity option? Sorry guys if this is basic for some of you...:)

For those who are saying check turn, is that only for pot control? This is where i always get confused, in my head im like ok bet for value..bet for protection, but then it doesnt seem as clearly obvious to others, Just what am I missing?

Im not sure why you folded river...unless he's trying to level you into a bad call, whats he flatting turn that is potting river?

Seems like he's getting to many folds for the vill to be playing a better flush like this. I dont think he has 44 or 22...so it really looks like a bluff on the river.

I like the turn bet, but I think its an especially high variance bet..In saying that if I make a turn bet im not giving up OTR often.

Full ring hurts my face. :)

I dont know how many 9x you have fold on the turn. same for JJ's and 10's, and depending on who the person betting on this turn a call isnt that bad with 8's, theres a lot of cards that they will be able to see a cheap showdown on, or maybe even turn into a bluff seeing as how the vill has position in this spot. 

I don't love a check in this spot, unless we have a good idea the vill will bet when he's missed, if we know for a fact he's folding if we bet then obviously we check, but unless we know that, i think the vill can end up with the hands i mentioned at the start. and if they do i imagine it will go check check a lot. So i say bet it.

If you're shoving on the river i don't like that, there's not a lot of hands that are beating you in his 4bet range that are calling the turn and folding the river. I agree with you in that i feel that the way i play, the turn bet is a bet that i have to make a lot, just to balance my delayed stabs. But in saying that, what can he have? how often is he 4 betting 10's? i don't think a lot, so that leaves pocket J's, Kk's and AA's, AKss maybe AQss but you have QQ's so unlikely.

Edit* just remembered this is a 4 bet pot, I'd X/C the turn, and if he check the turn i'd go for value on all non A and K rivers.