vankammen

Hi guys,

I am grinding the 2.5,3R and 8s 180s on pokerstars. My results are:

5000 2.5: 7% roi
1000 3R: 40% roi ( hot run )
100 8s: 90% ( doesnt mean anything of course)

overall: 15%

This worries me a bit. I have doubts the run on the 3.5R and 8s are just super hot runs (which they obv are) and that my 7% roi is my real roi. I am studying the game a lot ( subscriptions to 3 video sites, and use HRC alot analyzing a couple of tournaments each day). I think my shoving and call ranges <12bb are pretty rock solid. I have some doubts on my FT play. I really have put a lot of work on studying icm situations. But i seem to be struggling getting top3 finishes. These are my finishes:

ITM: 14%
VPIP/PFR/3bet: 17/16/9

10: 21
9: 23
8: 24
7: 25
6: 22
5: 27
4:30
3:33
2:39
1:34

I hope someone here (with a decent 15+ roi in these games) can give me some advice. Is it wise to follow ICM early in the final table? Or is it better to follow chip ev and use icm when the pay jumps get really steep (3 or 4 left). To make it more practical lets discuss an example:

9 left. average stack distribution. say 1-2 big stacks, 2-3 short stacks and a couple of med stacks. We have a med stack of 10bb utg. Now if you fill this in HRC you get a nash shoving range of about 15%. But if you look at the call ranges of the other players, i find that those call ranges are not really realistic.They are too tight. If you loosen them up to more realistic values you suddenly get a utg shoving range of about 5-7%. Thats a big difference. Up until now i have been following ICM for 100%. But this meant that each time i got a avg med stack at final table i could not do much, and as in effect, bled out to a 4-6 place finish.

I guess my question boils down to: do you stick to ICM ranges, or is better to make - ( at first sight) shoves and calls, to get a better shot at the top3 , making these shoves +ev in the end.

Another example: i saw a reg with a good roi make a call which was very much +ev in chip ev, but was very much -ev in icm mode ( i checked the situation in HRC).

Any help is appreciated.

Best regards,

Charly.