usefulidiot

PT and HM have merged now.

Great video, thanks Daniel!

no rough sunday 9? peace!

I guess the pot open otb craze has come from snowie...

Hey! Thanks, not so useful after all! Yep messed up the signs for when we lose 7bb and also didn't account for the times we call the cbet and lose.

However, I am confused by the 2nd part though where you say - Villain should 3bet "any2" given our flop-strategy.  Surely if this is the case then our equity on the 40% of flops the CO continues on is now close to 80% and it then becomes +EV when we call (still only +0.76).  

This was a pretty extreme example defending way less than the MDF, but do you agree that the amount we should be defending on the flop overall will be less than the 67% we would need to defend to to make his bluff with ATC profitable?

Sorry I am a bit confused now! I defend a lot to 3 bets and seem to fold a lot to cbets but I think overall in this spot I do pretty well.

Surely we make our original raise because it is +EV.  Once we have made it and get raised the only consideration is whether calling is +EV from that point on.  We are not concerned with whether we will lose less than if we had folded pre as folding pre is now 0EV, we should only be concerned with taking the most +EV decision whether that is 4 betting, calling or if neither of these are +EV...folding.

Isn't it just that with the 'dead' money in the pot the caller can still have a profitable call even though the 3 bettor is still profiting/breaking even from the weakest hands in his 3 betting range?  I don't know much about game theory but the way I see it in equilibrium the weakest hand in the first players opening range should be very slightly +EV (based on the number of times it takes the blinds/realises equity post flop) and the weakest hand in the 3 bettors range should also be very slightly +EV (due to the number of folds it gets pre flop, realises equity post flop and has profitable bluffs on boards which are better for the 3 bettors range than the callers).  As for the 3b caller even if he folds to the majority flops at a rate which is far off GTO as long as the EV of the call pre flop is greater than folding it doesn't mean he is getting exploited as the times when he does win the pot he wins back the original open, the 3b and the blinds. 

In Phil's last video he showed how just because you may have a profitable bluff post flop you need to take into account the 'risk' you took to get to that profitable spot.  So even if the 3b caller is folding to 60% of 1/2 pot cbets in 3b pots making a cbet profitable with any two cards that doesn't necessarily mean he can profitably bluff with any two cards pre flop as long as the caller is defending enough to not make this immediately profitable. (ie Bigfizzh's example of 32o and only continuing with a boat!)

I have never done an EV calc. so I may be off here but I'm gonna give it a shot anyway!  Say the opener is in the cut off and raises to 3bb and defends 50% of his 30% opening range by calling. Assume he 4 bets the top 5% and the BB is 3 betting a linear range of 12% to 10bb.  I put these ranges into ProPoker Tools (5%-20% vs 12%) and saw that on 40% of flops the caller has around 43% equity.  Let's say he only realises 75% of this equity, then:

To call = 7bb, Pot on flop = 20.5 (3bb + BB 3b to 10 + sb 0.5)

He folds 60% to the 1/2 pot cbet therefore loses 7bb 60% of the time.

40% of the time he calls and realises 75% of his 43% flop equity:

0.75 x 43 = 32.25

0.3225 x 30.75(10.25 cbet + 20.5 Pot on flop) = 9.92

EV = (0.6 x 7) - (0.4 x 9.92) = 4.2 - 3.97 = +0.23

This is assuming the 3 bettor cbets 100%.  I am not sure how this will change if he cbets less...

I am not 100% sure I have done the maths correctly or if 75% of equity realisation is reasonable but I assume if anything it would be higher than this?  I am not sure if this adds anything to the discussion but I wanted to have a go at doing an EV calc as this is a spot I often get confused about.  I know about minimum defence frequencies but I think in this spot they don't really apply do they? Please correct me if I am wrong!

My HM2 misses hands too, and it is a bit sluggish. Otherwise i like it. wonder if the cloud version will be any better.