I did some calcs on the Q8s call, because I thought it would be a fold, and thought you might not be taking ICM in to enough consideration.
You need basically 45% to be +cEV in this spot. I agree that he's shoving close to NASH. Let's assume that he's shoving close to NASH after taking in to account the antes, which gives me about 8bb effectively. This assumption will extend our calling range, but even then I feel this is a fold. Let's have a look.
I feel like ICM calcs will actually represent TRUE equity in this situation, as blinds are coming around constantly, chip stacks are pretty even, we don't gain much stealing equity by having a bigger stack etc, so I'd basically take the word of the model on this one. So let's proceed...
So NASH at 8bb comes out to (22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T4s+, 95s+, 84s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K2o+, Q5o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o)
Against this range we have 48.8% equity.
When we lose the hand (51.2%) we have 65 590 and villain has 147 038
When we win the hand (48.8%) we have 209 268 + 3rd place locked up
I saw the payouts at 3:36 in the video, so if I do a quick ICM calc....
If we lose, we have $4151.66 (x.512) = $2125.65
If we win, we have $5846.46 (x.488) = $2853.07
If we fold, we have $4959.52
win+lose = $4978.72
So essentially we have a break-even call. Keeping in mind that this is a slightly optimistic evaluation of his range, and many of his speculative hands are 8x
Q9s fares quite a bit better though. I'd say the Q8s represents the ceiling of my folding range here.
I did some calcs on the Q8s call, because I thought it would be a fold, and thought you might not be taking ICM in to enough consideration.
You need basically 45% to be +cEV in this spot. I agree that he's shoving close to NASH. Let's assume that he's shoving close to NASH after taking in to account the antes, which gives me about 8bb effectively. This assumption will extend our calling range, but even then I feel this is a fold. Let's have a look.
I feel like ICM calcs will actually represent TRUE equity in this situation, as blinds are coming around constantly, chip stacks are pretty even, we don't gain much stealing equity by having a bigger stack etc, so I'd basically take the word of the model on this one. So let's proceed...
So NASH at 8bb comes out to (22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T4s+, 95s+, 84s+, 74s+, 64s+, 54s, A2o+, K2o+, Q5o+, J7o+, T7o+, 97o+, 87o, 76o)
Against this range we have 48.8% equity.
When we lose the hand (51.2%) we have 65 590 and villain has 147 038
When we win the hand (48.8%) we have 209 268 + 3rd place locked up
I saw the payouts at 3:36 in the video, so if I do a quick ICM calc....
If we lose, we have $4151.66 (x.512) = $2125.65
If we win, we have $5846.46 (x.488) = $2853.07
If we fold, we have $4959.52
win+lose = $4978.72
So essentially we have a break-even call. Keeping in mind that this is a slightly optimistic evaluation of his range, and many of his speculative hands are 8x
Q9s fares quite a bit better though. I'd say the Q8s represents the ceiling of my folding range here.
Oct. 27, 2014 | 9:38 a.m.