timetopop87

Hey thank you both for the response.I have been doing a bit of work but some of my findings feel very counter intuitive. For example, Salutynuts with your calc of only calling QQ+, im sure your right and i did fold AJo pretty quickly however i know i would really struggle folding AK JJ AQs here. ( even if someone had hard evidence in front of me saying it was -ev lol). It is also very tough when playing with unknowns to estimate how much they know about icm, and how to adjust accordingly.

I would say that over a 56 hand sample size a 7% 3 bet means very little. Accompanied with his vpip and rfi im leaning towards him being aggresive but the sample size is simply too small to make any solid conclusions.

If we assume that MP1 is opening 21.57% - 22+,A2s+,AT+,K8s+,KJo+,Q9s+,QJo,J9s+,T8s+,97s+,86s+,76s,65s,54s.

CO is 3 betting an 8% range of (complete guess) TT+,AQs+,A5s-A2s,AJo,KQo,T9s

MP1 calls our shove with 3.5% TT+ AK

CO overcalls with 3% JJ + AK

And CO calls 3.5% if MP1 folds

Then AQ o loses 0.76bb for a 30bb investment.

We only need 8 more combos of raise folds to be added to COs 3 bet range for AQo to become marginally profitable so it is close. An interesting side note is that in this exact example given the guesstimated ( and probably/ possibly wrong) ranges the following hands actually perform better as cold 4 bet shoves compared to AQo. 33-99, AJs,ATs, A5s-A3s, K10s+, QTs+, J10s. (If this is the type of player who never folds AQo here this will not be the case!)

My opinion is that your best options are shove or fold with your stack size. If you think you have a good edge against the field i would fold, if not and there's a good chance co is 3 betting closer to 9% + then ship it in.

Yes I used icmizer

If everyone is playing nash equilibrium its breakeven. If the players are on the tight side as you say it will be between +0.6 and +0.75 bb. Deffo a shove for me. In my opinion one of the biggest edges you can have with a 10bb stack against weak players is taking advantage of them over folding.

I agree he SHOULD be calling off wider however in my experience at this level a population tendency is not to shove that wide from the bb. This leads to people calling off much tighter to bb jams. Well he tanked and called with AJs and i busted do i def should have just flatted lol. Im still torn but starting to lean towards your and Raphaels approach. thanks for the advice.

Im not sure why it hasn't picked up on the antes but there was an additional 300k in the pot with antes. I gave him 2 different opening ranges all with a calling off range of 8% 66+ A10s+ AJo. ( please give arguments if you think this call off range could be changed)
21% opening range is + 1.43bb
30% opening range is + 2.36bb

Another calc would be if he is splitting his range from 2x to 3x (as limited evidence suggests) and we take out the top 5% of his opening range except AA. I honestly think could be a close to accurate assessment.

25% opening range - 4.1% calling off would be + 3.3bb for KQs

Hey barracuda how did you calculate the 1.3bb for KQs as a flat??

Thanks. after doing countless icmizer calcs when i see a super profitable 3 bet shove i just go with it, often without weighing up all options. It's something i need to work on. In this exact situation this shove will show a profit of somewhere between 1.5bb and 2bb so off only 17bb oop this is massive. I'd be interested to know how much or your usual shoving range in this exact situation you would put into your flatting range?

9 max and in late position. Ran the ICM calcs and it's plus $ eV with his assumed range also so I think I'm OK with it.

30/19 but over a small sample

I think i have to agree with Riverbanged. When you say he's a solid reg we have to assume that he will be 3 bet inducing with QQ+. Without any more info we cant pinpoint his range but i would guess it could be 88-JJ A10s+ AJ+ KQs. If this is close to correct it is a 3.22 bb profitable call.
If we say its only 99-JJ AJ+ we still make 2.21bb by calling. His range could even be wider than these two examples.

Another thing to think about is if the solid reg is aware that your folding a hand this strong from this position, (assuming you are opening a standardish range) he can shove any 2 cards and print chips here! Especially if he knows the blinds are nits!

Completely agree with this as a standard strategy against regs. However deviating from this depending on the players in the blinds cant be bad in certain spots. If there are loose passive fish in the blinds then surely it would be a higher ev decision to min raise rather than to open jam. These players generally wont be countering this strategy as thet wont be thinking on that level.

I could be wrong here but wasn't that article aimed at cash games not tournaments. In tournaments you will be playing shallow stacks for the most part and not 100bb deep like cash so your wtsd should be considerably higher.A high stakes player I know has wtsd stat of 42% and mine is 41% so i don't think your that far off.

Yeah 106 is a bit thin, I think there are better combos and spots. What are we repping on the river with your line tho?

Your right, a larger raise would Def get more fold equity from his limps. I would have preferred a larger raise size if we were slightly deeper. Do you not think that there might be something to be said for raising smaller to keep the spr higher. We could potentially maneuver him off his hand over 3 streets easier?

It all depends on how wide he has been opening. Have you any extra info on the villain? Rfi ufg? Fold to 3 bet stat? I can quite easily imagine him opening very tight utg vs 6 10bb or under stacks. If this is true then this is a mistake. If not then shove is fine.

yeah that's the one. mine is very similar to yours. The big difference is at the bottom of the hero push column you don't have mp calling off 14% but as you stated in your first post we have no fold equity so it should be 14% (his whole opening range). Try changing that and see what you come up with. Have a look at your overcall ranges too.

I tried but that link doesn't work on my pc. Can you make the screen shot bigger like the first one but with out the calling and folding range so I can see what you've entered in the hero call and hero fold bit clearer? I've tried your pay outs plus some standard mtt structures, fiddled with ranges a bit but generally it's 10s+ ak. It only changes substantially when you change the original raisers call off range.

Is this ICM suicide here?

Hey guys. By my calculations it's an easy fold (although I would have shoved in game). Shakesbear, on your icmizer calcs in the hero push column you have all players set to 8% to overcall. After a raise and 3bai these players calling ranges should be very tight. 3% or possibly less. You also have the mp opener only calling 8% of his original 14% opening range. Given the pot odds he will be calling the complete 14% giving us no fold equity. Also it looks like you might have the stats for when hero folds set to 8% on all other villains which drastically changes matters. I could have done this wrong but assuming he's opening the 14% as shakesbear has assumed I think its more like a -$58 dollar shove!!!!!

Navstar, It could be better shoving wider if I had more than 15bb as we would have more than co and button. if co and btn are calling off very very tight (as they should be) we can put them in a very tough icm spot and generate tons of fold equity and doing quite reasonably vs the calls in sb and bb. This is assuming they are calling off as tight as they should and perhaps their not at these stakes.

On first look, easy shove. After looking at the icm calcs, easy shove. Assuming players behind are calling by nash $EV we can shove 22+, A2s+, A5o+, K8s+, K10o+, Q9s+, QJo, J10s. Im guessing sb and bb might call off tighter than they should and if so we can shove even wider. I made my calc using a 1050 man payout structure with $5k prize pool and A10 off is +$18.91 $ev. Far far too good to fold!

Do you have any hud stats on villain?

Pre flop I prefer over limping with the 67s vs passive opponents who wont get out of line behind. Its a descent candidate to take multi way vs weak opponents personally.

Flop I don't mind a c bet, especially if villain is one of these limp specialists who's vpip is like 40% +. If this is the case I think the sizing can be smaller, 170 should accomplish nearly the same amount of folds as 255.

Turn is player dependant but I rarely see him having a super strong hand with this lead ( although I have seen it many times before from fish). For this reason I like a small raise 350- 400 and barrel safe rivers. By just calling it really caps your range, making it very hard to rep on blank rivers such as this one.

If this guy is limping we can generally assume he is a fish. Do you know his hud stats? Some of these limpy guys have vpip of like 50-60%. If this is true you could put nearly all lower flush draws in his range perhaps if he plays draws fast. I would call here for this price in low stakes vs someone who limps pre in the early stages of an mtt. Its amazing what garbage they turn up with sometimes. However more info/stats on villain would be helpful.