thebigswoot

I'm curious about winrates in this game too. I've been beating midstakes online and mid stakes live for years now, just recently started putting some volume into 200 blitz just to test it out. Currently at about 50k hands running at about -3bb/100. I know the sample is small, but tbh I haven't had many 50k hand down losing stretches in my career mainly due to playing in soft games.

My napkin math tells me that if you are 4-5 tabling and getting 800-1k hands per hour, then you will be making something like $40-$60 hours in rakeback depending on your elite benefits tier and what place you get in the beast. If you can add a small pre-rakeback winrate of like 2bb/100 on top of that then you hourly climbs to a hefty $90+ per hour, which sounds enticing given how low the stakes are.

I truly am curious if anyone is really beating this game for like 2.5bb/100 or more over a big sample. If I had to guess I'd say the top regs in the pool are capable of it, because there a good number of weak/tight/nit fish to beat on that are regularly in the pool, and of course a few whales here and there. But the majority of the players are definitely playing poker at least reasonably well, especially when compared to every other 200nl player pool out there. My guess is that the top regs win at something like 2-4bb/100. The good regs win at 0-2bb/100. Average regs are slightly losing pre-rakeback in this pool.

I'll continue to put in volume in this game for the time being. But I think I most likely won't make this my main game long term. Making $40-$80 an hour in this game will require a lot more hard work and a lot more variance in terms of bb's than it would playing in soft live 5/10 games or bumhunting online on softer sites.

Respectfully I disagree, I think the hand was played well but only before the river. The villain's preflop stats should have us lean towards profiling him as a loose passive rec. But he's probably not one that naturally plays an absurd VPIP like 60%+. I think if we were to realistically try and model his range for defending vs preflop squeeze it would be extremely Ax and small-mid PP heavy. With some broadways thrown in of course. This range has KQo crushed on this runout. Even if he is bluffing with a lot of his air, which I don't think loose passive recs are inclined to do, a huge percentage of that air is going to consist of K highs which we only chop with. I also think that on average, weak players are more likely to be the type who don't bluff for an insta-shove 1.4x pot on rivers, than the occasional aggro whale who does so at every opportunity. I think a significant majority of the recreational population on this site will be overbet jamming here with random hands like QJs, Q9s, J9s (which is already a very small number of combos, some of which might have bet the turn with a FD) at exactly a 0% frequency. From a theory perspective its also very important to note that KQo is (or should be) very close to the bottom of our range on this runout and action. I also don't think its wise to immediately and completely discount the possibility that villain could be jamming here with Ax or a small PP like 33-66. I've lost money multiple times with K high hero calls in spots where villain absolutely "shouldn't" be value betting (or bluffing with) A high, but button clickers gonna button click.

I'm nitpicking though, and I'm open to being proven wrong. Tariq is clearly a very strong and intelligent player, and I look forward to watching more of his videos!