tehduper

oh forgot to say WCG chose to fold this hand.

There's been at least 3 huge overbet shoves (7x pot or more) from the bot repping flushes without any flush blockers. See the J3o vs 44 hand from yesterday against Polk... Maybe the bot knows something that we don't and is actually selecting for non flush blocker hands ?

No I believe les posted in the 2p2 thread that the bot is not adjusting its strategy based on the humans' play. The computer is however constantly running calcs and improving its strategy and the programmers are probably making adjustments after each session as well.

All bluffcatchers are not the same, and they are definitely not all automatically indifferent if the bot is playing well. Constructing your calling range correctly based on how your ranges interact has a pretty drastic effect on your EV especially in deep all in spots. You can see this effect very easily using solvers.

seems like if you're tossing a coin with K2 you should be tossing a coin with K3 and K4 as well.

against a 40/5 passive fish I don't think protecting our range nor picking off bluffs are legitimate concerns. The main benefit of checking that I see is he just calls us down wider on turn/river and since we're not really looking to get 3 streets here on any runout we end up getting more value.

the spades seems pretty straightforward, if you're in villain's spot you would much prefer to bluff when not holding spades and Jd8d blocks the non-spade hands whereas Js8s only has anti-blockers.

I love the feature of pokerjuice that shows equity on different rivers in a bar graph. Anyone know of a program that can do this for NLHE?

Are you planning on making any more zoom nlhe videos? Your earlier ones are some of the best nlhe videos on this site, would love to see some more.

top right table at around 8 minutes

I think you made a big mistake with KJo on the xAAAx board. It's the only hand you can ever bluff on the river with and it even blocks a lot of his Ax hands he's 3betting you with. You also fold out KQ every time and even have decent fold equity vs pocket pair type hands like he had.

"What I am saying is that OOP's R @ 100bb < OOP's R @ 500bb."

That implies that IP's R @ 100bb > IP's R @ 500bb, which is almost certainly false.

No, you don't realize any equity until showdown.  Even when you see all 5 cards, if the opponent successfully bluffs you on the river, you have realized 0% of your equity for that hand.

oops forgot to say I was referring to "What if our range contained 10% 0 equity hands OTR, 20% hands with 25% equity, and 70% nutted hands. "

This (and other spots where hero's range is too heavily weighted toward nutted hands) is a very basic situation where the optimal strategy for hero is to simply go all-in with entire range.  Villain's co-optimal strategy is to fold his entire range.

There was a hand in the video where you checked back 89s on the river on a KKxxx board after calling the flop and stabbing the turn with a flush draw.  Are you ever bluffing the river there or do you think he is just check calling too much for you to bluff at all?  I ask because it seems like you wouldn't have anything else to bluff with there so I am assuming it is an exploitative play.

I agree that the AJ hand there weren't many decisions to be made.  His sizings kind of just priced you in at every point and you obviously shove the river when you make the nuts.  What would your plan be on some other rivers if he shoved?  And I assume if checked to on rivers you are shoving for value on most blanks?

Is there any other way to think besides mentally?  :P

Sorry, I had to.

Once we realize how small his optimal bluffing frequency should be with that size on the river (about 8 combos per Parker's analysis above) we should be heavily leaning toward a call in my opinion simply because of the massive number of combos of missed draws (40~ combos easily) he will get to the river with.  His 80% stab vs missed cbet indicates that he is most likely not disciplined enough to put on the brakes on the river with over 75% of his bluffs.  I don't like a shove because we are repping way too small of a range (AcKc,AcQc,AcJc) that he will most likely have blockers to himself if he is valuebetting (most of his flushes contain at least one Kc, Qc, or Jc and some even 2 of the 3)

 His f23b will be 75%, but we still have players behind whocan have AK/JJ+ (bu sb and bb each 3% of the time) 75%-9% is 66%. So our 3bworks 66% of the time.

That math is wrong.  The correct calculation to figure out the probability of all players folding using your estimations on their continuing frequencies is .75*.97*.97*.97 = .685~ so about 68.5% of the time all 4 players will fold.  Not a big difference in this spot, but if you start using that incorrect math for say figuring out how often both blinds will fold, you will be way off.

How are you getting 2%?  Seems to me it could be pretty easily 100% here.

The problem is I think in this spot you will find most of your continuing range (guesstimating 90%~) would prefer to continue with a call.  Flatting sets here to protect that calling range makes more sense to me.  What semi bluffs are you going to have here anyway?

41:00~ish Hurloon is too good to try to rep the jack there, especially against someone like you who plays a bit tricky.  Like you said yourself, he's probably betting most of his draws on the flop and he definitely knows that.  I think the only way to get value on the river is to bet.

The pace of the video was perfect, please continue going so in depth on your future videos.

Cool video.  It makes sense to me now and I have to change my mind and agree with shootaa.  Betting small is purely an exploitative play in that we can easily balance our range such that villain should still always fold because our range is just too strong, we're just trying to entice him to make a mistake by calling.  The GTO play is actually just close our eyes and shove 100%.  Really interesting.

Extremely disagree with shootta that shoving is the best play or even that it's closer to GTO.  No way do we have enough bluffs here so I think he's going to be correctly exploiting us really hard by folding all his non Jx.

Seems very standard and good with given history.