talkin6muffin

Maybe I am off base here: Aren't we are giving v1 direct odds to call with all OESD, Gut+BDFD and AJ A7 BDFD? So with a C from V1, V2 is living the dream with all his draws and position. As played v2 is still getting direct odds.
I would think (and maybe I'm off) : STANDARD VS REC: People don't C 3bets and fold OTF when they hit. Bet large OTF and jam OTT expecting to get called by top pair, AJ and many strong draws- was the 2 a BDFD card?- (there will be a lot of chips in the middle by the time you jam). ALTERNATIVELY- and I really don't love this multiway- bet small OTF, small OTT and a "fuck you" bet OTR- try to induce all missed hands.

I would for sure 3bet much larger. Many players can be very inelastic with JTs/88 and such. And if they fold AJs, that's not a bad deal for us. As played I think I would jam OTF if I thought V would feel pot committed with guts and Tx. It sounds very much like he has nearly every Ax here but leading out with all of them makes little sense to me. I don't think I would feel bad about a fold here either.

Lake Charles. Shhh. Don't tell anyone. Softest tables I've seen since Monkeymaker was still only kind fat.

I agree this is the lower variance play. But don't we need to squarely remove QQ as well as AK to come to this determination? AKs vs KK+AK = 40%. ; AKs vs QQ+AK = 42%. And even this range seems pretty tight for a player who knows the word "blockers". Are we over/under estimating our as well as villains skill edge?
I play 2/5 in Louisiana from time to time and I can tell right away if this is KK+ most of the time. They are usually a bit giddy and they announce the raise as if being proud.
So I guess this sounds like a live read situation only those privy to the hand could make. Folding is still the lower variance play.
I'm quite sure future posters will have more insight than I.

I would for sure consider a raise here. Super fishy bet, I agree appears to be a blocker bet to set his own price for showdown. Safest just to call and make a note, but I don't think a raise here would not be a bad play at all. And I would probably call a bomb here as well.

Easy call. The mistake I think would be to fold here. Such good pot odds and such a strange bet. I wouldn't fold Ahi here. As well, we are still good here a lot of the time.

I would like to think I would never call here with anything besides maybe AA and even then not always. So fold or raise are the options. We have two callers behind and now: .21 dead in the pot, .74 to risk if you are heads up. Without a good reason I am often happy to get in with JJ vs a half stack. So raise here is the best option by a long shot in, my opinion. I think AI is the only size I would use here.
I think this hand was very well played.
p.s. I don't think this spot is weird, especially at this level.

I don't think I would fold a set here.
That being said, I believe I would often raise this fop and expect to be called or raised by worse hands. He looks passive so far so he likely has a piece of this flop. This flop is connected low with no front door flush draw, so not overly dynamic, but just wet enough to possibly be raised by many worse hands. Super happy to get it in on the flop.
I would also always raise the turn. I think not raising here is an even bigger mistake. Still super happy to get it in now.
I don't think I would ever fold this river. Set over set is a massive cooler and not getting it all in on a board such as this would be a huge mistake.

I analyzed this hand before reading the posts and I concluded it was a fairly close decision. We of course need to include some worse value hands in his shoving range (TT, T9 the occasional J9 and A9 - if you include 99 in his squeeze range than I would be inclined to include some of these) but I can see an argument for shoving AdTd , AdJd and QdJd. You are at lease some of the time folding out TT-QQ. Of course a non tricky rec is going to lean towards the value side when shoving, but when I ran the numbers I came up with a pretty close to pot odds range.

So I don't think this is a clear cut fold and maybe I am a station but I would think I am calling here at least some of the time. If we have Jd, its a snap fold.

If this villain is giving you sick reads on his 3B range, than of course this is a fold.

Great hand to review so thank you

Well I think 7 completes a lot of villains straight draws, gives him a lot of 1 pair open enders, opens him up for combo draws and overall smashes his range. He is quite a bit wider than us at this point and middling connecting cards gives him the opportunity to bluff us off our equity with over pairs and over cards, which is a very large portion of our range here. I would not expect to see a check by villain on this river and I don't think we can value bet lead any card on the river. If an A had rolled off on the turn, our range would be at a slight advantage. Same with a 2. Seven helps a ton of hands the button will open and call preflop.

I'm happy to be challenged on this idea as well as my ranges if anyone cares to.

7 has to be the worst possible card.

IMO this is a much better board for his range, so I think he should be betting all of his weak pairs and draws on this turn. However he does have all the 2P+ as well as JJ. By checking the turn we are both showing weakness and keeping his range wide. By no means do I think a check here is wrong.

I would have to run this range, but I think he has nearly as many hi equity bluffs as he does semi value hands. But he has ALL the 2P+ hands.

I don't think we have many cards to make a happy call with OTR. 2 Q and 2 T by my count. I could be totally wrong, but I'm pretty sure I could find a fold here. That being said, its good we don't have a heart and he may shut down on the river with 98 or 87. So are we calling any river bet? I do not think calling for a check is profitable in the long run.

I would have barreled on a 5 and lower, 8 or T and higher, but this is a pretty bad runout for us. We have a lot of barrels and X/C here, but not a 7 of back door flush draw.

For what it's worth I'm not often 3 betting this hand out of position vs a solid tag

I'm going to study more, but
Bam!
I think study makes us comfortable, playing one game until we can beat it makes us more confident, and not being results oriented makes us more sane.

Hand review, hand review and then some more hand review. Look at all angles, play as the villain, run range vs range through equilab and flopzilla. Run the hands of others and sweat both or all players.
I would highly suggest full ring if you have the patience. Watch the other players closely and put them on ranges. Full ring gives us lots of time to pontificate. You can let the mind wander or you can start calling out someones hand before they show it.

I feel like i change my strategy too often to completely tell.
If we don't work on improving our game, we will never move up, true. This of course means change. But maybe try to work on one thing at a time (say cBetting in multiway pots - huge at 10NL) and after we have a good handle on that move on to the next thing (3B ranges and how to adjust them, balanced and exploitative bet sizing).

If you feel like your strats don't work maybe return to ABC, play in position, raise or fold poker. Make sure the fundamentals are SOLID. And then maybe start adding more nuance slowly.

GL my friend! Study hard

Stats look tag = decent player
3b size is a little large, but all other bet sizes are exactly what I wold bet here with the goods.
Easy fold on the river

I might revisit the turn call.
100bb deep in a 3B pot, this turn bet = we are playing for stacks.
Assign a 3B range for Villain and see how many bluffs he has (that we are ahead of) OTT and make a plan for the river accordingly. We will be looking at a river shove way more often than a check back. He reps AQ or better and none of those are checking back OTR - EVER. Maybe AK checks back, but I wouldn't. So how often do we need to XC OTR? Are we ready to do that? I certainly wouldn't count on someone who has 3B and barreled twice to give up OTR. The only hands where I might check back would be QJs (1) KQs (3) TT-JJ (7)

This may be considered nitty of me, but I take a passive line here all day especially in zoom.
Open/ check/ check, call or fold/ check or fold. This is such a wet board that if I was intent on winning this pot (say I knew I was playing a passive fish) I would overbet flop and way overbet turn as we are looking to get value from our overpairs and sets. As is the pot is small on the flop and we have a reasonable draw that could get a lot of value OTT should we hit. The board is quite wet so V will often have some piece of it. If he gets sticky with TP, FD and gutters, we can punish him with our turn bet size. Additionally when we check OTF we are keeping v's range nice and wide allowing him to bluff garbage and for us to even look to float and maybe take it away on some rivers (like this one).
However the turn is a bad card because we have already defined V's range as something he is interested in playing. His pair+bd has improved. The FDFD we could have been bluffing didn't get there. No scary overcard like an A we will often bet OTF, lending strength to his top pair.

Considering Villains check calling range, I think our draw is both too strong and too weak to bet on this flop.

As is, I really don't think this is a bad river to give up on either. I'm having a hard time targeting a range Villian will lay down to a 2/3 psb.

If we are cBetting every draw as weak as this one, will be cBetting way too much.
I don't feel the need to win every pot. I just want to win the most and lose the least.
I hope this was helpful

1 tabler and pretty much unknown. Considering his 3bet size and info I
have that's a rec player.

I don't really understand these statements. Is V an unknown or is V a rec player? Would V only 3B one size out of the blinds and does that size need to be the same as yours? If he is a rec, what is the info you have and would you share it?

I would be very cautious about classifying a player I don't know solely by their 3B size. Could an unknown reg size AA this way to induce more calls from a rec and 4B from a reg?

Anyway, triple barrels are not my forte, but I would like to think I call this river some of the time fold some of the time and not feel bad about it either way. We block his shittiest bluffs AQ and QQ. His best bluff AcQc got there.
But his bet sizing both flop and river is suspect to me.

I can imagine playing exploitative this way with AcK or AcA.
If V is playing TT-QQ, KT-KQ, this way, I think I would call him a bit of a maniac.
I think most of your range is Kx by the river.

Has he looked out of line at all, or more importantly, has he seen a suspect line that you have taken? Tough calls like this one I try to answer those questions as best I can. Have you appeared super loose and therefore he would be able to 3B 87s out of the blinds? I honestly think I make my decision this way.
Straight forward and fishy - prolly fold
Either one of you has been out of line - prolly call

Super tough = can't feel bad either way

I really hope this is helpful. It was for me

1. Always rebuy to 100bb - why? Its simple - almost all learning materials for cash games are about playing 100bb+ deep and your
   overall strategy will be simplified.

If we are not covered by our opponent (in this case .07) why do we need to have a larger stack then them. We cannot win more than the effective stack size. Its simple

-Never post
-If we do post we are basically representing garbage by not choosing to be in the hand after and not raising after we see our cards. Therefore:
-Are we considering ranges or are we betting because we found ourselves in the pot. Are we folding out better hands and getting value from worse?
-OTR we need to think about how ofter we are good. BB is only "value" betting hands we beat with Ax and Js, 9s. If he is a passive player is he really betting these? He has made no aggression yet in this hand. What is he bluffing with the rest of his stack? Pot size bet = we need to be good more than 1/3 of the time.
-If we don't post, we don't find ourselves in this spot

I really hope this helps

So my thought process goes like this:

If I'm passive PRE, I'm either passive or very aggressive post (often not always). If your opponent has overcards, is happy to c-bet them most of the time, and you think they likely hit when they bet again, its an easy fold. But playing fit or fold is a good way to lose money in the long run. Most of us miss, most of the time.
I think, not positive, PP of 88 or higher only have 50%+ chance of still being good by the river. (I read that somewhere, so please take that with a grain of salt) Many many players stand by the axiom of "no set no bet" with baby PP. If this is your play style, I don't think it is a bad rule at all. So you may be losing lot of money by calling the flop and folding to any higher card. *only 2 cards under your 44, so you will be folding almost all the time

It seems studying set mining, playing gut shots and playing 2nd pair are all things which could greatly benefit you.

Let's take the final hand for example: You call 1bb from an UTG min open raise.
You are calling 1bb into a 4.5bb pot. Vs most thinking players the UTG range is on the tighter side. Lots of hi PP and suited broadways. A min raise in early position looks less strong so I would give them weight on the lower side of a UTG open raise range: lower PP, lower suited broadways/connectors.
1) study your value equity vs this range. PP have a higher chance of implied odds as top pair and over pairs will more often pay.
2) study how the UTG open raise range connects with this board. How often does he have an overpair, a pair, a set, a straight, a flushdraw, a straight draw, A high, and nothing at all.
3) determine the pot odds your opponent has given you, how much equity do you need to profitably make the call
4) MAKE A PLAN ON THE FLOP - are you going to play this hand passive, aggressive, tricky, whatever just plan ahead for when the next card doesn't help you - spoiler: it probably won't. If your plan is to check/fold on the turn, do that and don't feel bad about it.

To answer the question in your subject line- You can never have some all encompassing rule like "always call or always fold"

FYI... No problem that English is not your first language but I think your post would be a little easier understood if you were to use some punctuation.

I really hope this helps

I don't really like our turn bet. I would have to agree with the shove, tons of value vs Ax which calls our large XR

I don't really understand our river bet either. I think a jam may get AA, KK, QQ to fold from a smart villain (not as likely in 5nl) but no where near often enough for our bluff to be profitable. Our small bet never gets any spade to fold.

So what is our target range on the river?
Value from: AQ(no spade), AJ, AT, QJ, QT, JT)
Suited broadways - 19 hands
Unsuited - 51 But really how many of these both get to the river and are calling? Is villain 3 betting QTo and JTo?
Fold Equity from: ??? nothing that beats us ever folds to a small bet. Maybe KQ(no spade)
I really think I would XF OTR, maybe call a small bet.

I think the turn is the more important piece of this hand - shove OTT
I think villain severely misplayed his hand as well
(this is my humble opinion)

Information on the villains tendencies would be very helpful both for your decision and for analysis. (vip/pfr/3bet) Is he is passive, aggressive, maniac fish?

As far as whether or not he has it, I play mostly 10NL and I think this looks like a significant portion of the player pool here. They almost always have it, or a least a made hand.

One question I ALWAYS ask myself is whether or not I beat any of his value range (value being anything he may think is often good, like top pair).

So what bluffs do you beat? What thin value hands do you beat?

You are not getting a vey good price here, 2.3 call into a 3.3 pot so you need to be good the vast majority of the time.

As far as the XR, two questions:
What hands are you representing and how believable are they?
Is villain ever able to believe you and make the lay down?

Thank you for your response. I was sure there must have been a prettier way to do this, but I guess this work fine.

SB ($9.7) [VPIP: 35.3% | PFR: 2% | AGG: 31.8% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 51]
BB ($9.4) [VPIP: 46.7% | PFR: 6.7% | AGG: 31.6% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 15]
UTG ($10.24) [VPIP: 30.8% | PFR: 15.4% | AGG: 6.3% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 26]
EP ($27.57) [VPIP: 15.7% | PFR: 7.2% | AGG: 13% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 83]
MP ($12.64) [VPIP: 56.8% | PFR: 6.8% | AGG: 33.3% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 44]
HJ ($16.01) [VPIP: 42.9% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 20.6% | 3-Bet: 25% | Hands: 28]
CO ($18.48) [VPIP: 26.5% | PFR: 2.9% | AGG: 16% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 34]
HERO ($9.85) [VPIP: 22.6% | PFR: 16.6% | AGG: 36.4% | 3-Bet: 7.3% | Hands: 77527]
Dealt to Hero: 5h 5c
UTG Folds, EP Folds, MP Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $0.30, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.20
Hero SPR on Flop: [14 effective]
Flop ($0.65): 5s 9s 6h
BB Bets $0.20 (Rem. Stack: 8.9), HERO Raises To $0.60 (Rem. Stack: 8.95), BB Calls $0.40 (Rem. Stack: 8.5)
Turn ($1.85): 5s 9s 6h 7s
BB Bets $1.17 (Rem. Stack: 7.33), HERO Calls $1.17 (Rem. Stack: 7.78)
River ($4.19): 5s 9s 6h 7s Jd
BB Bets $1.44 (Rem. Stack: 5.89), HERO Calls $1.44 (Rem. Stack: 6.34)
BB shows: 6s Qs
BB wins: $6.72

SB ($9.7) [VPIP: 35.3% | PFR: 2% | AGG: 31.8% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 51]
BB ($9.4) [VPIP: 46.7% | PFR: 6.7% | AGG: 31.6% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 15]
UTG ($10.24) [VPIP: 30.8% | PFR: 15.4% | AGG: 6.3% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 26]
EP ($27.57) [VPIP: 15.7% | PFR: 7.2% | AGG: 13% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 83]
MP ($12.64) [VPIP: 56.8% | PFR: 6.8% | AGG: 33.3% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 44]
HJ ($16.01) [VPIP: 42.9% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 20.6% | 3-Bet: 25% | Hands: 28]
CO ($18.48) [VPIP: 26.5% | PFR: 2.9% | AGG: 16% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 34]
HERO ($9.85) [VPIP: 22.6% | PFR: 16.6% | AGG: 36.4% | 3-Bet: 7.3% | Hands: 77527]
Dealt to Hero: 5h 5c
UTG Folds, EP Folds, MP Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $0.30, SB Folds, BB Calls $0.20
Hero SPR on Flop: [14 effective]
Flop ($0.65): 5s 9s 6h
BB Bets $0.20 (Rem. Stack: 8.9), HERO Raises To $0.60 (Rem. Stack: 8.95), BB Calls $0.40 (Rem. Stack: 8.5)
Turn ($1.85): 5s 9s 6h 7s
BB Bets $1.17 (Rem. Stack: 7.33), HERO Calls $1.17 (Rem. Stack: 7.78)
River ($4.19): 5s 9s 6h 7s Jd
BB Bets $1.44 (Rem. Stack: 5.89), HERO Calls $1.44 (Rem. Stack: 6.34)
BB shows: 6s Qs
BB wins: $6.72

U][B]NL Holdem $0.10(BB)[/B][/U]
SB ($9.7) [VPIP: 35.3% | PFR: 2% | AGG: 31.8% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 51]
[color=blue][B]BB ($9.4)[/B][/color] [B][VPIP: 46.7% | PFR: 6.7% | AGG: 31.6% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 15][/B]
UTG ($10.24) [VPIP: 30.8% | PFR: 15.4% | AGG: 6.3% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 26]
EP ($27.57) [VPIP: 15.7% | PFR: 7.2% | AGG: 13% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 83]
MP ($12.64) [VPIP: 56.8% | PFR: 6.8% | AGG: 33.3% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 44]
HJ ($16.01) [VPIP: 42.9% | PFR: 25% | AGG: 20.6% | 3-Bet: 25% | Hands: 28]
CO ($18.48) [VPIP: 26.5% | PFR: 2.9% | AGG: 16% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 34]
[color=blue][B]HERO ($9.85)[/B][/color] [B][VPIP: 22.6% | PFR: 16.6% | AGG: 36.4% | 3-Bet: 7.3% | Hands: 77527][/B]
[B]Dealt to Hero:[/B] 5:heart: 5:club:
[I]UTG Folds[/I], [I]EP Folds[/I], [I]MP Folds[/I], [I]HJ Folds[/I], [I]CO Folds[/I], [color=red]HERO Raises To $0.30[/color], [I]SB Folds[/I], [color=red]BB Calls $0.20[/color]
[I][B]Hero SPR on Flop: [14 effective][/B][/I]
[B]Flop ($0.65):[/B] 5:spade: 9:spade: 6:heart:
[color=red]BB Bets $0.20[/color] (Rem. Stack: 8.9), [color=red]HERO Raises To $0.60[/color] (Rem. Stack: 8.95), [color=red]BB Calls $0.40[/color] (Rem. Stack: 8.5)
[B]Turn ($1.85):[/B] 5:spade: 9:spade: 6:heart: 7:spade:
[color=red]BB Bets $1.17[/color] (Rem. Stack: 7.33), [color=red]HERO Calls $1.17[/color] (Rem. Stack: 7.78)
[B]River ($4.19):[/B] 5:spade: 9:spade: 6:heart: 7:spade: J:diamond:
[color=red]BB Bets $1.44[/color] (Rem. Stack: 5.89), [color=red]HERO Calls $1.44[/color] (Rem. Stack: 6.34)
[spoil]
BB shows: 6:spade: Q:spade:
BB wins: $6.72
[/spoil]

We are positive fish has a flush, hero has a set.
Not getting direct odds, but positive we will stack with our 10 outs.

Do YOU use math here? Or is this more of a subjective/feel call?