
sunrider101
2 points
I think the overbet is fine if villain is suspicious and youve been floating a lot. This is a snap call and its not close. You may consider your hand overrepped with the OB, but villain can still be value shipping worse flushes, strong Ax, and the very occasional bluff. With the odds you're getting here, a fold would be very exploitable and is likely a large mistake.
July 15, 2014 | 1:28 a.m.
How about shipping river? Would he fold an overpair? Because that seems like the majority of his value range here.
June 22, 2014 | 6:03 p.m.
I think the flop and turn calls are mandatory, but you need to have a clear plan for how to play river. Does he fire the third barrel frequently? Has he turned weak pairs into bluffs on the turn and river before? I kind of like shipping over his river barrel on bricks if his river betting frequency is high.
June 21, 2014 | 7:13 p.m.
Seems like a call, he could be value betting worse hands with that sizing. He almost always has something showdownable here, so there are very few bluffs in his range unless he is turning qx, 9x into a bluff. But he will value cut himself often enough to make this a call.
Turning hand into a bluff is reasonable, but probably not against the average opponent at this stake level.
June 18, 2014 | 10 p.m.
Put more details in your post. What is his sbraise%, f3b%, call3b%, 4b%. How does he view us?
June 17, 2014 | 2:01 p.m.
I think readless calling is the best option. We keep his bluffs in, keep the PSR large which favors us in position, and avoid leveling ourselves into getting it in pre with poor equity.
If we knew for sure villain is a good reg that 3bets a ton and is capable of 5b bluffing, then I like 4betting here.
June 17, 2014 | 1:36 p.m.
I think we more info to really make a decision. The stats you posted are not specific enough. Some info that would help:
Villains raise sb%, f3b%, information on hands he has shown down in 4b pots.
We need this info, because only once we know that can we know what that 10% 4betting range looks like (ratio of bluffs to value).
Im going to guess villain is opening something like 70%, so if hes 4betting 10% he is 4betting 7% of all hands. TT+ and AK is 3.5%, so maybe hes bluffing 50% of the time. At 100bb, this would be a pretty clear shove, but at 200bb according to CREV, this is a fold or a call. We are essentially turning 88 into a bluff here if we shove.
I think I would probably end up calling oop, and depending on his cbet tendencies, possibly check/shipping or c/calling good flops, but I'm not particularly happy about it.
I don't think I would 3bet this hand 200bb deep in the first place. We're always going to be in awkward spots out of position postflop with a bluffcatcher. I would keep my 3betting range far more polar, and keep my sizing smaller as well.
I think the fact that he sat you makes me want to ship river for value. If you think hes a stationy fish this could be ok. If hes not terrible, then c/f or c/c is best. If hes realllly float c/c is fine, but otherwise c/f. This river hits his range pretty well, everything either gains showdown value, and readless I woudnt assume he will turn mid pair into a bluff.
July 15, 2014 | 1:31 a.m.