stomped

@FBB I'm an essential member.

arizonabay Perfectly possible I have misjudged the impact of this decision. I think it's a shame, but that certainly seems to be a minority opinion. Ah well.

I just don't get it.

Steve: Did access to the comments stop you purchasing an elite membership when you could afford it?

Mikey: "Protecting" seems a strange word to me. You aren't protecting anyone's ideas. Whether or not you have to pay $100 to see the comments, this is still a public forum. Of course you are free to do whatever you want, it's you're site ...... you're welcome. I just feel it is unlikely that a significant number of people are choosing not to purchase an elite membership because they can read comments for free. Do you have any figures? If your numbers don't change will you consider reverting to the old system? Because if you aren't making any more money then you're just denying access to less well off players for no reason at all.

Let's call the number of hands in his range A, and the number you lose to A'

So on the river, if you check behind you win 23.05 * (A - A')/A = 23.05 - 23.05 * A'/A

Now, if you bet .... say 15 on the river. Lets call the number of hands that he calls with B (all of which beat you), and we'll assume like you said that he is never bluff raising, for simplicity.

you win 23.05 * (A - B)/A - 15 * B/A = 23.05 - 38.05 * B/A

So, what has to be true for the bet to be better than a check?

23.05 - 23.05 * A'/A < 23.05 - 38.05 * B/A

38.05 * B < 23.05 * A'

B/A' < 0.61

Remember B is number of calls, and A' is hands that beat you, two pair or better. So for a 15 dollar bet to be better than a check he has to fold more than 61% of his two pairs+.

lol, just occurred to me how dumb that question is, he has called again, that's what has changed. still think we win reasonable amount though

his stats seem reasonable and he has called a 3bet oop so he has .... double suited connected, single suited rundowns, double pairs ? We beat all the rundowns containing 9!Q, many of which pick up GS's on the turn, we beat KK+pair..... Dont we bet the turn expecting to be ahead of villain's range? what has changed on the river?

cant we just check behind and show down the winner?

shouldn't we just bet bet bet to stack the fish when he has a 5? If he has a 5, bets flop, checks behind on the turn (which fish are wont to do with trips weak kicker) and we only end up getting two streets .... id kill myself. Any reason to think the reg or fish will go insane if you check?

Imfish, are there any flops we x/f here? 789? TJQtt? monotone?

i dont understand your analysis. It is definitely not true to say that one should have a set, and the other should have KJ. They both have KJ in their range.

I think that given btn's tight stats, and his line (Pot when he has the opportunity to close the action and see a free turn card) he probably has KJ every time, so I give btn a range of KJ:20%.

If we give HJ a range of (KJ,QQ,TT,J8):(30%) (So any straight, top two sets AND 30%)

then we have 33% of the main pot, and 45% of the side pot. 

.33*30 + .45*17.60 - 17.45 = +0.37. This does not take the huge rake into account, with rake this is negative EV.

Personally, I think my range for HJ is probably too wide as it is, and if we tighten it up our situation deteriorates......or maybe im being way too pessimistic :)

not sure ... I gave HJ sets + J8 too ... and we are still not doing well enough. Btn seems pretty tight, seems like wishful thinking to expect him to play J8,QQ like this.

I like your play, for all the reasons you gave. I play exactly the same way here. 

I think this is probably a fold now. 

I've spent the last 15mins running sims and it is hard to find ranges for villains which give us more than 30%. 

If we put BTN on KJ:20% (reasonable? he seems pretty tight), then we are in trouble.

Vs KJ:20% we have 45%

Vs KJ:20% for BTN and (KJ,QQ,TT,J8):(30%) for KJ we have 33.7%, and who knows if HJ is playing this way with his J8's .... if he isn't things get really bad

This adds up to us losing money :(

I play zoom 10PLO :) i fold this hand before the flop. Early position i play nut suited AND connected hands.  The 10PLO locals play way way way too many hands. tighten up before the flop and take all their money after the flop.

Super interested to hear what other people have to say about this because i would be a touch confused in your shoes.

I think that the combination of the flop check raise + our stack size leaves us in a lot of tricky spots on the turn, any A,K,Q,9,8,7 is uncomfortable. If we donk flop instead, we end up donk/3betting or just being called and in both cases turns are much easier. 

Here we are committed if we bet any more than $4 and committing against AQ/Q9 sucks. I think this is a check (pray he checks behind) fold, K is awful :)

i fold super happily. He has a boat :)

Just read overbet's post, sounds like 4betting is the way to go. 4betting clearly higher EV than calling? no problem that our hand does poorly aipf against AA?

My standard is to call. BUT I just ran the following sim in PPT which I THINK gives us the percentage of times we hit flops where we we have an easy decision

select count(boardInRange("K**,AA*,99*,dd*,cc*,QJT!xxx")) 

from game="omahahi", deadcards="Ad,Kc,Kd,9c"

the result is 45.3%! 

I am surprised by how high this number is ...... so if we pot to 4.80 and get two callers we are getting 33% pot odds on a 45% chance of flopping a K high flush or better, which actually seems pretty cool.

These are obviously only very initial thoughts .... HJ is deep and dumb as well, which is also nice reason to 3bet .....

I am going to carry on calling here until I have considered this a bit more. Calling here is obviously going to be profitable. Like you said, your hand flops well.

I dont like a cbet here. My problem is that there are TONS of mediocre hands that villain will call flop with, and when we bet once and give up on the turn we are just giving money to all those hands.

Some boards i cbet everything, but this is not one of those boards, and your hand sucks, just give it up.

I fold, I think vast majority of villains (on Stars) will x/c rather than x/r a K here. I like bet/fold here.

now 1250 below EV ... new 1 day pb! YES!

brilliant, thank you.

villain has all AA and KK.

@mah0ma. Maybe I am doing something wrong. JhJs5h4c:30% then COUNT in ppt. ppt returns 'empty range' so this hand is not in the top 30%.

I was mistaken, it's actually just inside the top 33%

ss is single suited? ppt puts JJ54ss just inside the top 24%. I wouldn't open either of those hands with a frequent 3 bettor behind. I take your point though, I would much rather open hero's hand.

So this is a standard open in the CO?

Our hand is JUST inside the top 40%, why open this at all if we have a frequent 3-bettor behind us? If we bet/call this trash against him preflop we are going to get punished.

thanks plac, most helpful :)