spudders

This is the analysis I did iof a recent hand I played. I am new to using simulations to analyse ranges so I was hoping for some feedback on how I effectively I have utilised and interpreted the simulations and also any other comments on the hand itself. Thanks :)

(1/3). I rz co with TdTs to 10(1k), laggy reg flat btn(1k).

JhJd3h

I bet 12, he call.

Turn 7c. I bet 30, he rz to 100, I call.

Riv Kd. I ch f to 275.

Pf I think his range is prob quite wide otb for a reg and quite condensed. I think he 3b AJs every time with no fish/ss in blinds and AJos a lot too.

Flop I like cb and size is okay. My std would be 30-50% and I don't mind sizing up a little vs a sticky opponent. I think he can be flatting Jx, all pp, 3x, fd, Ax, some bdfd/sd combo floats.

Vs this range I think a mixed strategy of betting/ch ott is fine. I like betting from a wide co opening range to build a pot/deny equity vs 3x, pp, fd, Ax. I do think he is wide enough pf and flop that I could ch to induce from some of his floats however I think he continues vs a bet with most fd ott anyway and prob doesn't bet often with Ax, pp when ch to that I think I prefer betting this actual hand ott as I have such high pot share vs his pp that he will likely call a turn bet with.

When he rz turn I think his range is KJ, QJ, JT, 77, 33, weak fd, bway floats. I do think he would often call his Ahi, Khi fd and any 7xhh, 7xdd floats ott with the non robust sd portion. Pf I do think he can have the J7s, J9/J8os combos that he can take this line with and notably I also don't block any heart combos. The simulation for this range is;

Hold'em Simulation
2,156 trials (Exhaustive)
board: JdJh3h7c

TsTc
20.78%

JK-J9, Js8s, Jc8c, Js7s, 33, 77, QhTh, Qh9h, Qh8h, Th9h, Th8h, 9h8h, 9h6h, 8h6h, 8h5h, 6h5h, 5h4h
79.22%

Vs a 30-100 rz size ott I need 25.5% equity to continue vs his range (70/274). As we can see this is quite close and does not take into account any lower equity turn bluff rz but does assume that he rz every mid fd/fd combo. Given how close this is I think calling turn is fine to decide riv as he can poss have some lower equity bluffs to gives up and my overall read so far is that he poss views me as a little weak which could mean he is over bluffing turn. In addition he may well call some turn bets with Jx if he thinks I am over barrelling from my wide co opening range.

Riv he slightly over bet 275 into 247 giving me a prive of 34.5% equity to b/e. I think overbetting strengthens his range as he may give up some bluffs vs my turn calling range and also possibly polarises him more as he may not bet this much with J8-JT to value cut himself esp given that I can have KK combos. But in the following sim I have assumed he would bet big with the weaker Jx combos.

Hold'em Simulation
47 trials (Exhaustive)
board: JdJh3h7cKd

TsTc
23.40%

JK-J9, Js8s, Jc8c, Js7s, 33, 77, QhTh, Qh9h, Qh8h, Th9h, Th8h, 9h8h, 9h6h, 8h6h, 8h5h, 6h5h, 5h4h
76.60%

What is notable form this sim is:

-5/10 of the mid fd are combo draws which may make it more likely he bluff rz these ott.

-We don't have enough equity to call riv when we assume he bluff rz turn/bets river with every mid fd combo. However this is poss balanced out by the fact we don't give him any other flop floats turned into turn bluffs but these would be low equity bluffs which would mean he is quite considerably over bluffing.

Conclusion
I think the biggest takeaway from this analysis is that if we assume that he continues with a call ott with fd combos with some non robust equity portion or sdv this takes 23 combos out of his bluff rz turn range: A9hh-A2hh, KThh-K2hh, Q7hh, 7Thh-74hh. When this happens it severely decreases our equity vs his range and the following sim is very notable that includes only the fd that are combo in his turn rz range:

1,936 trials (Exhaustive)
board: JdJh3h7c

TsTc
14.20%

JK-J9, Js8s, Jc8c, Js7s, 33, 77, Th9h, Th8h, 9h8h, 6h5h, 5h4h, 6h4h
85.80%

Vs this range we need 70/278=25.1% ott so in similar positions going forward we have to be able to put more bluffs in an opponents range to continue ott.

Looking at my flop CB sizing and looking for some clarification. Against opponents/population who I think under continue vs small bet sizing is it best to utilise smaller (25-35%) flop CB sizes as this allows me to profitably bet a higher frequency of my range?

History

I have established a fairly aggro dynamic with a reg in my live 5/10nlhe game recently and encountered a spot last night where I'm not sure what was best. I am a pro reg in this game and villain is a pro who travels from abroad to play for a few weeks every couple of months. On this trip we have had a more aggro 3b/4b dynamic than previous after I got to sd with a couple of light 3b early in his trip although gen I have a 3b % that is on the tighter side of taggy in these games. He has a quite laggy pfr generally but tightens up postflop. He has been running bad/losing on this trip although he was winning on the night. I know he respects my game but possibly thinks that atm I am being more aggro/creative in these spots than I actually am. I feel like his adjustment to our recent dynamic is to 4b wider for value than previously and to be a lot stickier vs me in gen especially in 3b+ pots.

Hand

Weak tag limp mp(2k), Villain iso mp to 60(4.5), fish flat hj(1), reg flat co(3), I sq otb with AKdd to 275(5.5), mp fold, Villain thinks and 4b to 700, folded back to me...

My reads are that his 6x pf is quite strong (99+, KQs+) especially as there was a whale in the bb. What do you like and why?