skatomat

I would also call, but would bet the river a little larger.
But I would also 3bet pre, especially this guy.

Hero risks $413 to win $518
$413/$931 = .44% equity needed
Equity Win Tie
MP2 33.33% 24.24% 9.09% { AsQh }
MP3 66.67% 57.58% 9.09% { 99, 44, AQs-AJs, A9s, A6s, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd,
KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Td9d, 9d8d, 8d7d, AQo-AJo }

I don't understand this.

Isn't a value shove per se defined as having 50%+ equity vs his calling range?

The 44% is how often he can fold to your river shove to make you indifferent from bluffing and checking.

I would just cbet. Then I would dcbet the turn. But as played I don't think you can fold.

I think his CO-Steal and F3 are somewhat important, because CO-Steal for example tends to vary quite a bit, although a 22/17 will usually have a rather tight CO Range like 25% or so.

Oh, HH seems messed up.
Seems like Villain is CO, not MP.

He has 40% CO-Steal so far.

Good stuff. TY!

I would donk the flop. But as played, you can't really fold the turn.

Yeah, 3/7 is 46%. So he 4bet 4 times in total, 3 times vs you. :)

Why is this a bug? 4 out of 17 is 24%.

Obv it's a small sample, but 3 out of 7 times against me is enough for me to justify 3bet/5betting this with 99. 

It probably means our F4 in HIS HUD is pretty big, so we just counterexploit until we reach equilibrium. :D

I wouldn't 3bet this hand vs this guy. As played I call the flop and see what size he bets on the turn. Our implied odds should be pretty good, though.

Yeah, it depends with what he is bluffing. However, I think this is a call given how "capped" our range may look to him.

I mean, let's say we have 10 flush combos on the river and he holds KJ. Then, in his eyes, we have 3 boat+ combos. So if we bet/fold all our flushes plus some bluff combos and bet/call with boat+ only, his bluff c/r with KJ is highly profitable.

Given his utg open range is so wide, he probably has all KJo and KQo combos. Also, he may think Hero is 3betting wide as well and hence discounting KK and maybe even JJ combos.

So we need to b/c with some flush combos, too. AKss is probably the best candidate.

Yes, but isn't this a good spot to turn KJ into a bluff as well? I think AKss is a better hand to b/c with than say AQss. I think I call.