Simon Ansell

Hi Phil,

38:30 you flat AA86cc vs UTG and SB calls. SB leads 1/2 pot on K43hh, UTG calls and you decide to call saying you "think you have enough equity". It might be really nitty but shouldn't you just let this go, what are you expecting to happen on the turn? I don't see many runouts where you win this pot.

@Daz, for some reason I can't reply to your post so have to reply to my own post.

The good new is I've finished SNE on Stars for the year and ran a bit better for the last couple of months, so can now concentrate on more important things! The downswing peaked at 140BI below EV and I finished about 90BI below. I still made a profit pre-rakeback for the year, so pretty pleased. I'll be concentrating on my other interests for the rest of the year and studying poker, including the vids here, when I have some free time.

Re. the rake, I've read most of the 2+2 threads on the subject and contributed to a few of them but I'm not an expert (I do have a solid maths background though so understand all the data...). I'm sure every level of PLO is beatable, with the caveat that at 100PLO and below so long as you are disciplined and table-select, avoiding tables with 4-5 competent regs and/or >1 short stack. Leave tables when conditions get bad. My own problem was that with requiring SNE volume at small stakes it is impossible to do any meaningful table selection, but that's obviously not a problem for most. I do think Stars are missing a trick by not reducing the rake, and some of the arguments they give are absurd ("the rake is higher at PLO because there's more action" - what? if anything it should be the opposite). The data doesn't make good reading, most of the high-volume regs at PLO100 and below are losing so what chance is there for less skilled new players just getting into poker or PLO?

I'd love to see Phil G or other high-profile players give their thoughts on the subject but sadly, nothing yet.

I lost with quads vs straight flush this morning, hope you're right!

Can't get much worse, now ~120 BI below ffs.

Ha yep I may have posted elsewhere, but it's got worse since then :) Was hoping for some more useful responses here at RIO!

Pretty sure I'm playing reasonably well, apart from my flopping and winning all in skills. I've never been a huge winner at PLO, probably due to too many tables and the EV winrate in the above graph is 'normal' for me.

I played a hand earlier where I 3 bet an UTG open from UTG+1 with AKQTds and was coldcalled by MP, a   well respected reg who plays midstakes and sometimes higher. 100bb eff. stacks. Flop TT5r. I bet flop, was called. I checked the 5 turn, he shoved and rivered the 7 with his T976 one suit. Honestly I think the only difference between a lot of the midstakes regs and the rest of us struggling to break through is rungood. Maybe I'm deluded, but I think it's impossible to underestimate how much luck there is in this game.

My month so far, 95 buyins below EV. All PLO. It's not *quite* as bad as it looks cos I run worst at the lowest stakes I play.

I'm an experienced player but I'd be lying if I said it isn't starting to affect me, but it's hard to stop playing completely due to Supernova Elite commitment. Don't particularly want to move down in stakes as I think it's almost pointless playing below PLO100 due to the rake...

Interested if any of the video makers here have had similar downswings and how they've dealt with them?