Kurt

Nice video. Like how you take your time to compare the GTO vs exploitative strategies. More please!

More CRev stuff would be cool.

I would call. We have the nut bluff catcher.

If the BU has a balanced range of:

* Flushes, TT, JJ (I think sets are actually debatable as an overbet as they block our bluff catching range)

* Bluffs, AcQx, KcQx, some QcX

* Calls a XR with flushes and folds sets

Vs this range AcJx and AcTx make better calls than raises whereas AcAx and AcKx make better bluff raises than calls. The next best calls are JxCx, TxCx.

These ranges aren't necessarily what we get to the river with.

Raise river:

Call river:

Cheers :)

By using the above analysis we can then make exploitative adjustments.

From my experience most 200nl regs won't:

* Flat pre with any AK in these positions. 

* X back enough air on the turn -  hence turning more pairs into bluffs on the river.

Given these adjustments, I had villain getting to river with no AK and less air 15% (AQ, 9T). This of course makes the villains value range on the river is alot weaker; only KJ. 

If villain only value shoves KJ and bluffs all of his air on the river, we have a slightly +ev call

If he turns 5% of 88-TT into a bluff this is what our EV looks like:

So it pretty much comes down to how much air villain gets to river and/or how often he turns a pair into a bluff. Against most regs its probably a fold. I would probably always B/C or always B/F depending on reads.

From running multiple sims over the past year I've found that going for 3 streets with AJ on most board run-outs is slightly too thin on this flop if the CO has a good balanced 3B flatting range i.e. some combos of QQ+ and AKo. For that reason checking one street is best. Which one? It depends. Checking the flop seems reasonable as it keeps dominated hands in like AQ also there are only two overcards we are worried about. 

On this board run out, if the opponent is playing a balanced strategy, you should be indifferent between calling down with AJ if 3 bets go in. 

I did a quick sim where we bet 42 on the river:

3B flatting range:

I have villian checking back the turn with this range, HC hands weighted at 50%. Also checking back all AJ he got to the turn with which may or may not be best.

Raising river:

Value =  AK+

Bluffing = AQ, 9T (weight 65%)

Folding = 88-TT (weight 70%)

Calling everything else

Against this balanced range we're indifferent between calling or folding AJ:

So basically if we get to the river with decently balanced range it shouldn't matter what we do.
I have a pretty huge game tree if anyone is interested?

Another great video!

Trying to widen my SB open range. What does your 4B/call range look like SB vs BB and whats the weakest hand you call a 3B oop with? 

Cheers

Awesome, loving the in depth analysis. Pretty broad but would like to hear your thoughts on how to construct CB/Xing ranges on flops ie. Backdoor draws, Overcards, FDs etc.

Cheers