I'll give it my quick two cents while procrastinating at work - I agree it's a really tough call but my instinct is to fold this. I don't think he leads the flop with many diamond draws (like do you think would he lead out KQd, QJd, JTd here? I don't think so), so I think he calls the turn checkraise with roughly the following (and folds out a lot of his high broadways and non spades):
*Sets - his range is heavier here than ours is
*Stronger aces, maybe flush draw aces with a low kicker
*Lots of straight draws
*Spade draws with a pair
So I view the river bet as he would prefer for it to not to check through. He knows you could have been raising for value as well with a combo spade / diamond draw or pair, so it's hard for me to imagine he calls the checkraise and then bluffs at it.
I'll give it my quick two cents while procrastinating at work - I agree it's a really tough call but my instinct is to fold this. I don't think he leads the flop with many diamond draws (like do you think would he lead out KQd, QJd, JTd here? I don't think so), so I think he calls the turn checkraise with roughly the following (and folds out a lot of his high broadways and non spades):
*Sets - his range is heavier here than ours is
*Stronger aces, maybe flush draw aces with a low kicker
*Lots of straight draws
*Spade draws with a pair
So I view the river bet as he would prefer for it to not to check through. He knows you could have been raising for value as well with a combo spade / diamond draw or pair, so it's hard for me to imagine he calls the checkraise and then bluffs at it.
Criticism of my analysis appreciated!
April 20, 2017 | 8:14 p.m.