reg3000

great vid format, love your analysis, and exploitative style :)
86dd @25min - i could be wrong but I think ak/aq use 2/3 sizing frequently on this texture in sims, if not this exact texture some regs can still do this and if any amount of regs bet flop with ak/aq and the ones who don't give up ott often enough then this exploit becomes very dicey, or who knows maybe he played kk like this haha!
edit: just saw you review it at the end, unlucky he had 2pair :p

You won't get pp to fold there otf with that size. You can definitely barrel turn though after you bet small otf

I also shove pre

Flop I guess wp except fold to shove, I can't imagine population has any bluff 3b there

who said we are planning on x/folding? V bets pot here, a very uncommon scenario.

Call turn, fish love to bet when checked to, even though board is not one they float a ton your outs are very good when you hit and can extract value, and you get great price. River is fold, v has no natural bluffs and does have AQ QQ A5 5x etc which is plenty to give him credit with a sizing that is not bluffed much by fish in a spot like this. Also bad price.

Folding is bestgood unless you think CO is likely to be very bad, his preflop line is within reason with JJ/AA and he never bluffs here and never has AJs preflop.

Thanks for the detailed explanation. I can see that it is much clearer bluff now, I did not account for his river bet opportunity and his wide flop peel.

6:40 K2s OTR, I take it you are giving him these combos?
Call: AQs,KQs,Q8s+,AQo,KQo,QJo+, +23 combos flush (TOTAL = 61)
fold:99-77,33-22,KJs,AJs(3),Kd9d,Kc9c,AJo,KJo (TOTAL = 56)

This seems really close since you need 43% equity and you have 48% on this bluff excluding rake, am I missing something from above range?

Wow, what a perfect illustration of mindset. Thanks for sharing this story; your words speak volumes here. Best of luck to you in your future endeavors.

Your math is wrong. You are trying to find the chance of a downswing of x amount for a duration of y time in a sample of z hands, which is far different from what the variance calculator does. You cannot just multiply the chance of losing 24 buy ins within 2.5k hands by 2.5k. Think about it: this would mean if you go on a 15 buyin downswing in the last 1k hands of a 2.5k buy in period, and then you lose 10 buyins in the next 500 hands , you have not counted that as a 25 bi downswing.

At 16:40 you have 99 and decide to check flop but bet turn for protection, can you please explain why you don't bet flop to deny even more equity?

u gotta fold here vs most fish, some will do this with qx but they are less common so you only put that in their range after they have shown to 2bet top pair, or maybe if they have overly high likely merged 2bet stats over good sample. Vs a lot of fish you just have to mostly always give them 2p+ when they raise

To me its pretty weird that he doesn't cbet such a flop, I think fish will generally cbet their bluffs quite frequently in this spot, especially the kind that like to 3bet more than just the nuts. They also love to check value hands, even those they have no business trapping. His big river sizing is a second red flag that this fish has something like a trapped overpair or of course 99. There are fish who could do this sort of thing with a bluff but I think it is much more likely that you are beat. I do expect them to bet the turn a lot with overpairs a lot however. Ultimately I do not think it is good to play the guessing game with fish (i.e., does he frequently bluff all these x,y,z combos that he needs to for me to call profitably?), the money is made by recognizing common lines or narrowing their range in a logical fashion. You are also getting a very punishing price here which makes calling even worse. Also do not post results in the OP as it can skew analysis.

nice explanations

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