quadrangemerge

adrian, if we stove the range you suggest (22, 33, 55, 8x, 46 and a4), we have about 25% equity so it's really not super close. but if we were to say, weigh each hand in the range by likelihood given the flop, turn action, we would downweight, A4 and 46 -- this would bring us to something like 40% equity. by stoving up your reasoning/suggested ranges i think it's actually quite a clear fold? really great point with assuming that we have less 2s and 3s in our range, so this really narrows down our own range from the villains perspective, which simplifies the analysis quite a bit.

if we remove all over pairs from the villains range, and add minimal amounts of air, as you describe, we are super crushed at 18% equity, so this should be a fold if you assert that range. having said that, i think we'd have to be wary of always putting the opponent on such a nutted range like this on river overjams. i can easily see a dynamic of AA trapping non-boat/set pocket pairs in this spot.

This spot is close, I think. Analyzed in a vacuum, it should be a fold but if it is a fold, you should be making a lot against him by folding when he bets and leading out a lot more often or turns/rivers. Let's break it down mathematically:

EV(fold) = 0
EV(call) = profit * p + loss* (1- p) where p = probability we win
= 285 p - 420 ( 1- p ) = 678p - 420

so the p_breakeven is 62%. So the decision should be if p > 62%, then we call.

now, let's breakdown what this p should roughly be in his case:

p =

if range a) with all boats, all 8x, and AA, KK, QQ and JJ: 62% (tight)
if range b) with range in a), but removing QQ and JJ: 54% (super tight)
if range c) with all boats, all 8x, and all pocket pairs above 5, A5 + random air: 76%++ (might be more reasonable)

where do you think his range is? i would think it is a range wider than a), because in the overall game sense, if it wasn't that wide then you'd be making a lot of profit just folding when he bets turns/rivers and maybe even leading out a higher than usual % of the time.

Given 78 is unlikely unless the pre flop dynamic has been very agro, I think the turn check is not as good as maybe betting 1/3 to 1/2 pot. Qq and Jj and draws that we don't really expect to get there will check back on the turn but will likely call a small turn bet and call a river shove for what's left. Although I think check back is still fine if the sb is super agro on turns but even in a vacuum it's not terrible.

Never mind, I didn't write the pots down properly but looks like he bet the turn small giving you odds to call. Seems like a call but def not raise on the turn as there is close to zero fold equity. There are some cards that land that give you the straight but boat up his range. So the river decision depends on how often he bets rivers. If he bets for value at the top end of his range, then check call. If he value bets thin you may have room to check raise. If the river gets you a flush that doesn't boat up hiss range a fair amount then might even lead for smallish fraction of the pot

Yup. They'll station you with 2 high flushes.

Fold. I don't think you'd have a lot of fold equity if you raise and not enough pot odds to continue to call. You already called flop on a pretty lockdown board and that didn't even slow him down. If he's self aware at all, it really looks like you are trapping him given how much he's been 3barreling. C/min raise flop would have been a better line if you think he's that airy

I mean it does seem like he's been 3b much and he says his image is tight ag.

Sean, aren't we dominated by hands that get it all in on flops? Qq would play to stack us that way and occasionally he won't 4bet aa or kk. I think he'll only call us light on flops if there is a 3b dynamic preflop, but I haven't really been 3b much.

was the 2 one of the suits on the flop?

if i assume that the 2 on the turn is one of the rainbow suits to give him the widest range possible (i.e. make you JJ less of a bluff-catcher): AA, KK, QQ, TT, 99, 88, all Ax flush draws, 77, all 7x FDs, all 5x FDs, all 3xFDs, all 2x FDs, 55, 33, 75, 73, 72, 64s, 64o, 32, 35, then your JJ at best has slightly above 50% equity. And the moment we remove any of the weak FDs in the aformentioned range, JJ is dominated. So the only way to justify a call is if he does this enough with air (i.e. how polarized is his range?). Now, if the 2 on the turn isn't one of the suits on the flop, then this makes his bet even more polarized, so the bluff-less range under which he does dominates yours even more. In the end, i think your decision is very ready dependent -- but it does seem that when people in live cash games are really relaxed, and are chitty chatty in the middle of a big pot, I think they are rarely bluffing.