q3timmy

In my last comment, I thought villain was BB for some reason. I still think it's an easy turn bet, but now he has less nutted combos than if he was on the BB. I think now if he shoves we have to call, he might be doing that with worse Ax, JTs or other spade random combos.

Anything between 3/4-small overbet is fine, we really don't want to scare off hands like 87, 86, 97, 96, 75, etc.

I also think it's a spot in which when people have a better hand they let you know pretty quickly, so we can easily fold if we get raised OTT.

I don't think you need to reshove anything in this spot, you are committed against everyone except the SB. If you are in a table full of regs and you think flatting looks too strong, you can then shove the highest end of your range.

Against any kind of opponent you have a really easy flop and turn bets. Are you hesitant about any particular aspect of the hand? Why wouldn't you want to bet turn?

Just flat call. You want to be able to fold to the SB. It looks insanely strong, so you don't need to be worried about him shoving worse over your flat. No chance he is reshoving AJo, KQs or 77-99 and if he is, it's just a terrible play.

This is a very broad question. Let's start with the easiest part:
"And if I do raise, how much should I raise?"
To simplify, you can have 3 sizings:
- 2.5-3x w monsters.
- 4-5x w hands you still want to stack off but don't want to give too good a price.
- All-in. If someone is limping too much from EP or MP and you are in mid to late position, you can start going all-in with the worst part of your range (low PP, mediocre Ax, broadways). The range you can shove depends on how much the particular opponent is limping.

The cases when some fish limps strong hands are so rare compare to their counterpart that it shouldn't be a concern.

I think "half decent" suited hands do not suffer the same drop in equity 3 way vs HU, as such hands like say K6o, so they can still be called, since it is much easier to realize your equity post flop.

If he is opening wide enough it is a slightly profitable shove, although I'm probably not taking it very often since I try to look for less close spots to get the money in.

It's a good defend imo. The suitedness is very valuable in a 3way pot for such a good price.

Your read is probably accurate, your iso raise vs UTG shows already some strength, and for him to be 3betting small only makes sense with his inducing nutted range.

You can shove down to any pair from BB vs UTG vs a reasonable opening range. Even against a very tight range 99 is still printing as a shove.

3bet size is OK, but in this spot I would go 4x. If he is a fish opening too wide go even bigger.

OTF, your range advantage depends on your range, you have all the overpairs and he doesn't, but he has all the suited broadways that contain a J, AJs and maybe AJo and KJo depending on how bad he is, plus he has all the PP that are probably calling flop.

I don't think anyone is x/r this flop as a bluff vs your really strong utg+1 3bet range, so you don't have to be scared about it, you just fold the 1% of times that it happens.

On that turn we are not getting many folds from hands that called the flop, maybe AK if he has that and some of his lowest PPs.

As played, if he hadn't donked OTR, you can pot it and hope he folds his worst PP and random floats, since you can still have many Jx that would have taken this same line, as well as flushes.

With 10% rake they are most likely beatable, but turbo tournaments in general involve huge swings. I personally try to stay away from any turbo MTT.

The preflop 3bet is perfectly fine if he is opening too much. On that flop you can stack off, but you are better off just betting like 40-50% pot to get value from the hands he is folding to a shove that you have crushed, and then you just jam any turn.

I like Risva10's response, this line might be good against a thinking regular, but definitely not recommended vs a fish. However, I think that if we are going to take this line with underpairs, JJ is probably the worst PP we can have to do it with. We are blocking all his AJ, KJ and QJ which are a ton of combos that are folding the river.

Also, your turn size doesn't make any sense. It's one of those spots where you want to bet really big with both your bluffs and value, at least 2/3 pot up to even a small overbet.

Preflop size is bad, this deep oop go 5x min. OTF, if you are going to bet, you picked a good sizing, but this deep, I am not even sure if we are even supposed to bet it. He has all the sets and JTs plus many draws with really good equity.

When I am not getting raised OTF, which I would assume would happen most of the time when you are up against sets and straights, I feel pretty good about that turn, so as played, I think we can keep betting to 2/3-pot.

OTR, unless we are against a maniac we can x/f. Many of his missed straight draws like T9s, QTs and T8s are checking behind, we are blocking KTs so there is really not a lot of Tx that are calling 2 streets to huge sizings that he could turn into a bluff OTR.

I can't really distinguish the small numbers, but it seems that in the first image ICMizer has you calling down to 44??? Is that vs AQ+ and JJ+ for the shover? What about the 3bettor?

Even in my calculation with really wide ranges those hands don't even come close to a call. Is that because you also have AQo?

I could be convinced to check either flop or turn, but I personally would probably play the hand like this most of the time.

He is betting 3 way in a spot where most players at this stake won't have any bluffs. Anything other than folding is too ambitious imo.

If half the buy-in goes to bounties, when you eliminate a player, you get half his bounty and the other half goes to increase your own bounty. So I guess it's 1/4.

I don't think so. This deep in a tournament, I would assume a lot of players are shoving hands like AK, AQ, AJ, 77-TT, etc. for 15bb, and only open raising their top 3-4% of hands and some raise folds.

Since the % of raise fold combos vs the % of raise call combos is much higher than it would be on a chip EV spot, AQs should be a shove.

You really need a strong read that he is a mega nit to fold here.

I think your analysis is spot on. Just fold.

Yea you have to call imo. Specially vs weak players who will overestimate sets and two pair in this kind of board I don't think you can fold any made flushes. He might also do that with some random AxKd, AxQd, etc. that you are doing very well against.

The fold is fine but you have to cbet that board after raising preflop.

If you think your opponent will fold Tx and lower PP by the river, seems like a good candidate to bluff. We don't have any natural bluffs in this spot, so I guess KQ is the closer it comes to it. Also you are also blocking KT and QT, which makes is even less likely that he has those hands, rather than a random stab or a low PP.

That said, you need to be prepared to fire any river that is not Ax, Kx, Qx or Tx.

No, he can be doing that with worse flushes and Kx for value plus some random bluffs. Just a cooler.

For ultra wide ranges we can see that JJ is still not making much. What ranges did you use to make JJ a printing call? Would be interesting to know if we are using completely different ranges or that the programs are giving considerably different results.

For the 15bb case, JJ is a fold given tight villains ranges.

Yes that is another good argument for calling. Just because he is the chip leader doesn't mean he is going to barrel off 3 streets with all his hands.

Even if you overbet a good river after x turn, you are still making less $$, since you miss the value from his 9x that might fold to the overbet OTR and you don't build up the pot size to get max value on the good runouts. The size of your overbet is probably still smaller than the size of a 2/3-potsize bet if you had built up the pot OTT.

When you see that flop, you should be thinking 3 streets of value. Worry about raises when they happen, don't let the possibility of it cause you to make bad decisions.

Just think of how tiny a portion of the range he is calling on that flop to your cbet 6x actually is.