proszpero
1 points
Well at 100bb we just go with it, due to pot odds, right? 28% equity if villain's range is exclusively AAxx - but there'll always be some extra fluff.
Deeper, you're in a world of hurt and probably regretting the 4bet.
Oct. 7, 2014 | 8:07 a.m.
If our read about his flop range is correct, villain is still gonna have a whole bunch of missed FDs to bluff with. And this is a runout where our perceived range is very likely to be capped. Like, what's our check-raise for value range OTR? Exactly 88? It's not even clear we have 88 in our 3bet range. What's in our check-call range?
Also, villain betting 50pot isn't a size I'd interpret as strong?
In villain's shoes, I wouldn't do it myself, but I don't think the idea of turning 99-TT into a bluff here is even that crazy. Plus all the missed flush draws. Plus our superweak perceived range. Plus good odds. I think we should feel like bluffcatching here.
Oct. 6, 2014 | 7:47 a.m.
SB: $6.25 (Hero)
BB: $12.86
UTG: $5
HJ: $5
CO: $5.46
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, Hero raises to $0.15, BB raises to $0.45, Hero raises to $1.35, BB calls $0.90
Oct. 6, 2014 | 2:44 a.m.
HJ: $7.61
CO: $6.43
BN: $5 (Hero)
SB: $2.62
BB: $4.26
UTG raises to $0.10, HJ calls $0.10, CO calls $0.10, Hero calls $0.10, SB calls $0.08, BB folds
Is it not better to go even bigger OTT, like $5 - then just shrug ship the river?
As played, I think I agree that bet/fold small is probably better than shipping.
Oct. 7, 2014 | 9:35 a.m.