prisonmike

If your turn ranges are very polar and you cant bet every bluff on the river but on most rivers your value hands have no incentive to check, wouldnt that mean when you do check river your c/f incredibly often and this will allow villain to gain EV by floating turns super wide?

yeah aren't your best calling hands here your 6x value bets since all of his value range (I think?) will contain a 6?

That CREV analysis was very interesting, thanks for taking the time to rig up the sim

If robtinnion almost never has an ace and almost never checks trips on the river, and a huge part of your bet flop check turn range is Jx, you should definitely consider bluffing river with QT here as he has 9x almost always. Don't think the answer is to just never bluff.

One thing about the Piosolver analysis is that this pot was 3 way so that likely changes the GTO ranges for you and the BB.

I'm really curious how you're constructing these mixed preflop strategies. Did you just come up with them yourself or is there some program? (you don't need to tell me your exact range obv, i'm more wondering about the process that lead you to choose the ranges/frequencies).

~20:46 I think you should consider a river raise with the 75 if calling is not +ev. You would play every K7, K6, K8 combo this way and would definitely raise river vs this size.

The TT hand ~19:00 where you flat the 4bet and jam over cbet. What other hands are you jamming on this flop (hard to have any draws)? If most of your AQ and overcardbdfd hands are calling, doesn't calling TT make more sense too?

Think K5ss has to be a turn call ~29:00. We have a small amount of showdown against his bluffing range, overcard to the queen, and on a low spade i'd assume his KQ+ is still going to bet, so decent implied odds too.

With TT ~40:00 where you turn a set and bet twice, I think you would benefit from a larger river sizing because a lot of his AK and AQ combos play this way so you don't have much incentive to valuebet worse than that (assuming your AK 4bets too). So you could just bet two pair plus for big sizing and gain more EV vs his Ax hands.

With the J9s hand top right ~3:00, do you consider bluffing river with this hand? What hands do you look for to bluff after checking river here?

" If he's betting Kx+ here for big sizing, it's going to be pretty hard to add a ton of bluffs. the reason why is that he doesn't have that many value hands Kx or greater that take this line"

If he doesn't have many value hands, this is why he should bet bigger. Your alternative of betting smaller to represent more hands doesn't really solve the problem as now we need even more value hands for him to not have a snap call with any bluff catcher (because of smaller sizing). You can only add so many value hands. Mind explaining what your river value betting range would be here and sizing?

Maybe tournament players favor betting with any king on this turn, but the turn definitely helps the flop caller more than the better, so I don't think he should bet every king on the turn.

Is he even profitably getting in J8 on the flop here cEV? Given the ICM dynamics (multiple shorter stacks)my point was that J8 isn't really a "strong hand". There is a lot of value to staying in the tournament in this spot and a lot of good things and not much bad happens when we check.

Your first sentence implies I was advising to shove the AJ I think? I wasn't. I'm wondering why you think clicking back is a necessary strategic option. If you have QQ here or AK, I would think shoving makes more sense. Is he making a mistake against your range calling with A4 vs click back? And why do you think clicking AJ is better than calling?

Also you seem to be going back and forth. Us shoving and losing here is a disaster but that other guy bet/stacking off J8 on that board is miles better than checking when there are multiple shorter stacks? When we have AK instead of AJ and we click it back and he shoves and we call and he shows 77 or something (and hands like this are a big part of his iso range, and he isn't really making a mistake calling our clickback or even shoving), we put ourself in this silly $ev spot where we would have much preferred a fold. What edge are we pushing with this click back as opposed to a strategy that calls or shoves?

My understanding of tournament ICM is mostly intuitive so I'd be happy to see some proofs.

Also, apologies if I come off too confrontational here. I really appreciate your videos. :)

Anygame's iso with A4 is a pretty big punt (more than a small mistake). You're uncapped in this spot flatting the button, and he has a lot of incentive to let your strong range go up against the bb and get anygame a pay jump the majority of the time. He's also not even pushing an equity edge vs the bb really.

I don't see the point of clicking back the AJ in your spot. Anygame should have a linear iso range not random complete trash and you're giving him insane odds to call. If you have QQ or KK I think there's a ton of value in just pushing your fold equity preflop. Maybe the icm dynamics and range composition allow you to do this though. I'm not a tournament expert. I think if you have AA or w/e you could call or shove. AJ prob good enough to call here given pot will be checked down a lot and we realize our equity. Doesn't seem necessary to have a click back range when you haven't even convinced me that it benefits your strong hands, let alone hands like this.

Also the K7s hand I think should be bet majority of the time with the redraw and straight on the turn because it ensures we freeroll his 7x and get money in vs other good hands before the board changes so it's gonna be higher EV than a non-flushdraw 7x. You can check back some other flushdraws sometimes. Also I think he has a lot more 7x than us in this spot since he defended the bb (more offsuit combos and more 7x with a pair whereas most of ours with the latter get checked on the flop). He also has every QJ combo. So I don't think we gain much from a big bet. In fact we could probably play a strategy where we bet small, and be able to include some sets and stuff. We don't have many bluffs on this turn and betting big when a large portion of his range is the nuts doesn't seem productive.

The J8 checkback vs your A7. Given that there are a lot of short stacks, he should be opening pretty tight, so this board isn't very good for him. The board also changes a lot on turn and river so pumping money in with a weak top pair isn't necessary because there aren't many situations where he can bet 3 streets.Having the jack is cool because if he turns 2 pair it will look like a really good spot for your to start bluffing. His hand also doesn't need too much protection because you dont have as many double overcard hands in this spot (some of them will shove or 3b pre). He also blocks some hands that will continue (worse 8x). For example, 99 I think should almost always be bet.

Also just in general with him being at a big icm disadvantage here to you, he should lean towards passivity moreso than normal so I don't think this hand is a 100% bet on the flop or anything. No one really knows in tournaments but I wouldn't be surprised if equilibrium was checking more than betting. You seem to be of the mindset that certain hands are played x way instead of mixing frequencies, which is fine and practical, but you shouldn't necessarily assume because he checks here he is checking this hand 100%.

The A9 vs A7 hand at ~16:00, when he checks back the turn he still has a lot of non-showdown give ups (JT, QJ etc) that could decide to bluff the river. I'm not sure if there's much reason for him to value bet less than a king on the river, and since a lot of your kings and all of your 7's will lead the river, apart from the few combos of straights and boats that will c/r, his Kx+ is good almost always. And I think he should be betting big to take advantage of your relatively capped river checking range. He can certainly find enough bluffs (even A high missed gutters could be included) to force you to think about calling your paired hands.

Great video. Feel like I learned a lot by that A6 hand where you donked the 7 turn.

Your videos alone are worth the elite subscription. Great job.

You've mentioned that tournament players don't slowplay much if the board is at all coordinated and thus end up being very capped when they defend vs flop raise with a call. Do you find since your flop raise percentage is so high (and includes a lot of one pair hands for protection) that when you just call your range is super weak going to the turn? How do you deal with this?

With the A3s hand top right ~19:00, is there a stat you use to tell you which hands villain is 3betting? He mentioned that he doesn't think villain is 3betting many of the hands that would want to bluff this turn. Is that from notes/memory or a stat?

Regarding the last hand, considering you don't have a flush really ever and BB is unlikely to check a flush on the river, it seems correct for All Week Nor to use big sizing on the river (maybe even bigger) because he should be able to add a ton of bluffs if he's running into a flush so rarely.

In the first hand, can't shoving be a good size for you when he checks river since there's no real reason for you to bet any Tx if he is checking AT to you (thus i don't really see the point of betting small). And you can jam flushes and boats, any non-pair hand, and perhaps some overpairs as bluffs?

regarding the kj hand at 22:30 was wondering if you are overbluffing this spot. im not sure what your utg opening range is but if you have 89s, probably most of the suited ace of club combos, a few wheel draws and other club club combos wouldn't these be better to choose and enough to balance your strong hands. seems like adding in the offsuit broadways is to many

At ~38:50 table 3, don't you have hands on the turn that can't profitably call but would like to continue in the hand by c/r on a card that is very good for you (mostly small flush draws), and thus you should c/r some of your 2x?

Regarding the hand where you had the T8 vs Q5 and his decision to check flop: He has showdown against most of your bluffing range, and he can play very aggressively against a check back (bet big on turns and rivers) and win the pot vs better hands on later streets. Also if the turn goes check check after he check calls flop he will be able to have a bluffing range on the river, whereas if his check call range was exclusively A high+ or something, you will have easier decisions vs river probes.

Also would like some elaboration on your paired board strategies. What hands are you checking on the flop? Seems like on a lot of turns most of your range is air so he has easy calls vs small bets?

Folding the A3s at ~20:00 to the 4bet getting 3.8 to 1 has to be too tight. Calling is best I think, though you didn't entertain that at all.

Great video, some of the best content on the site

With the 34s hand, what is villain's correct counter strategy facing a check raise if he knows your exact strategy (c/r 34s and 54s and some sets/straights and jam every river?) Is calling turn and folding river burning money?