plop85

I think one way too see this spot is to analyze your database for this exact line.

"I had a sample of hands 2k+ and villain never check raises the turn with a combo draw" after this statement I think you have an easy fold because
1) This spot comes with a such a low frequency that folding here should not impact your WR at all

2) V has a very easy + ev cbet with his range, even for a passive-type strategy. Not sure why would he xR bluff for 82 BBs when he can bet for a lot less.

3) Youre using a big size OTT which make him more likely to think you have a very strong hand like 2p+ and a bid draw and youre less likely to fold to a raise. I think he is exploiting the population tendencies of calling too much in these spots vs a xR.

4) "Part of my thinking process was that he was trapping me with that short stacked BB, and he had a plan to get my whole stack, and he could only do that if he x/r the turn." This is a good statement because youre taking in consideration human factor, a factor that is less and less used these days. All I see is "Solver X wouldnt do action Y here", excluding all human emotions right from the start of the thought process. People tending to play like machines that other people created and never deviate from its strategies - this just not feels right from the human point of view :)

Some other things to mention :

1) You can view this spot by database analysis. Alias all regs -> filter this spot (vs tight-passive strategies) -> see results.

2) You`re putting a lot of enery analyzing a hand which happened once in 2000K hands, Why ? There are other spots which occur with very high frequency and can have a huge impact on your WR.

The AQh hand where V overbets. Why don`t we bet/call ? We can get value from a lot of hands and have enough equity to call i think.

Call and take a note.

Just check behind. You`ll win at SD a decent percentage.

I`m going with 75% pot bets in a min raised/3bet pot.

If he plays a lot of hands I think you can start 3betting him more IP rather than OOP until you get more info on his postflop play.

"He is unknown with 21/11/af0.0/3bet0.0"

"over pairs that he decides to flat preflop that he turns into a bluff on river would be one of them. "

Given those stats I think it`s an easy fold if he shoves the river. I think most of the players who decide to flat a big pair will raise almost any low flop especially the wet ones so they`re not inclined to slowplay both preflop and postflop that much.

I`m def betting bigger on the turn like 16/17.50 to maximize our FE. I noticed players fold more to a pot bet and call a 65-75% bet, so why not take the pot down on the turn more often

On the river against this V I think it`s an easy value bet but I`m going with a bigger size because I want him to just call with hands like 67s and QsJs and not raise them and he`s not going to fold an overpair anyway with the two deuces on the board.

You cand do two things to get more info on the players at the zoom tables.

1) After each session take like 30-40 minutes and watch the Instant hand history and see how big pots were played.

2) After the session press the observe button and leave the table open over night. In the morning you can go through the replay hand button and see how big pots were played and take notes on the players.

I think that at these stakes most of the players are lose passive and in this spot they`ll probably check behind Tx and Qx on the river but call a small bet. With those stacks they look like recreational players and they`ll always find a worse hand to call in close spots.

I think you can go for a smaller size on the river to lose less when you`re beat.

I automatically assume that regs at NL10 are not competent and get it in here and take notes of what they showup at showdown.

If we bet/fold this flop can`t we bet smaller than half pot ?

There are a couple of things I don`t understand in this spot

1) Why do you call the flop raise on this board without even closing the action ? Can we profitably call it down 3 streets with 2 players in the pot ?

2) Marrek says the turn is a fold. Why would you call the flop to fold on the 4 turn ? The fish donks again but shouldn`t we have been expecting this action ?

3) Why do we assume that the reg`s range is weak in this spot ? Since he flat calls the turn with one player to act behind him I don`t think his range is ever weak here.

How about this turn range

JJ-66,AT,KT,QT,AhQh,AhJh,AhTh,Ah9h,KhQh,KhJh,QhJh,QhTh,Qh9h,JhTh,Jh9h,Tx9x,9x8x,8x7x,7x6x against which we have only 45% EQ.

If he calls the shove only when we are beat and folds his OESD and FD is it still a good ideea to shove ?

How do we calculate the EV of our turn shove ?

What`s your calling range preflop B vs tight CO and with what part of that  range do you continue here and flat a pot bet ? I think this looks extremly strong and by raising the turn you just confirmed this assumption.

If the CO gets it in anyway on the turn after this action why do you feel the need to be balanced at these stakes ?

If he has an overpair or a jack I can`t imagine him folding when you raise the flop. His flop cbet being only 57 I imagine he's never bluffing in this spot and he has a strong range which he will stack off like always on this flop.

My guess is that thinking about balance and slowplaying in some spots against weak regs will cost you a ton of value.

Even there is a small sample size of hands the facts that his wtsd is only 17% and he has a double stack makes me think that he is not inclined to bluffing that much.

I think you`re focusing too much on the stats in this spot and miss the action. At these stakes a 3bet from sb vs utg usually means qq-aa and most of the times but not always ak. Until he proves otherwise I`m gonna go with this assumption.

I also think that you should play a straight forward game and not get yourself into some tough spots or do a lot of bluffing or semi-bluffing. There are a lot of fish which are easy money so you should probably take these high variance plays out of your game.

I noticed the stack sizes at the tables. You should probably do a better table selection and play with at least 2 fish who have a full stack. Also you should be looking for lag fish and not those tight passive fish.

I think you should play a solid straight forward game at these stakes and not level yourself too much. If your image is aggro they won`t be making lighter 3bets for value and thiner value bets but instead they`ll be waiting for strong hands like sets to stack you off.

V has some tight stats so I doubt that he`s playing a hand like 9Ts or an over pair - which he decided to slowplay pre - this way. With his stats and the fact that this is a zoom game I think that his strategy is mostly floping sets and play them aggresively so I`m probably folding here on the flop.

If his defending range is something like 77-TT, AQ-ATs, KQ-KTs, QJ-QTs, JTs and continues on the flop with something like 70% of his range folding 77-99 and ATs, KTs and QTs that means we`re gonna take the pot down 30% of the time by betting.

Given the SPR is about 2:1 we need 40% equity to stack off on the flop and against his 70% of his range we have 49.4%.

- If he shoves AQ pre and we take it out from his defending 3b range we have around 40.5% equity needed to stack off on the flop.

With 30% FE and the equity needed to stack off on this board isn`t this a clear bet/call off ?

What about AsQx ?

Ok. Assuming I have the right ammount of info and i know that he is wide here. What`s our next move ?

My question was how to play this spot against an opponent who recognizes a good squeeze spot.

Also do you have a calling rage here in the HJ ? How about 4 way if you`re in the BN