patrickred90

I see no value in raising here. Your nearly never have a draw with a good enough equity to call a reraise/shove. And because of that I see you nearly never bluffing in this spot. Thats the reason why I think calling is better than raising here, also because youre get the full stak seldom in the middle, because youre nearly blocking everything what he coudl shove with(excl. AA, KK)

please convert the hand first, its horrible to look on this hand this way;)

as sweet16 sad you shouldnt raise OTF. Another Problem is, if youre raising all your FD, sets and 2pairs on the Flop you have no raising range on the Turn which makes it more easier to play against you and your hand because its pretty faced up. I would also Fold the river, because he is triple barreling on this board vs 2 other players and we have much more better hands to call the river.

3bet Pre would be really bad. You iso your hand vs the strongest Range and dont want to fold to a 4bet.

I dont like it ro raise here with your hand. Youre repping sets and nearly nothing else. You wouldnt do this with for example , JT,KT,QT or something like this. The T OTT is nearly the best card for him, because of the example written above. So he could call with Tx Combos and the Overpairs. He looks nitty so if he calls the flop raise I think he is never folding this turn.

The River is a tough spot. I think he could have some overpairs he might should fold but doesnt do just because he can call:) And he coudl have some combos which beat you really hard, like quads fulls and Flushes, cause you dont block anything of it.

All in all I would prefer maybe to c/c once and fold any unimproved turn.

I like your line vs an aggressiv player. As taaazz said our range is pretty capped here. I think the river is close. The sample you have here is not much to say much about it. But in general i think that the player at these stages dont barrel 3 times too light. I think he would maybe 3 bet KQ pre and TT, often calls 66. AK he would 3 bet too in general, so i think he is value betting OTR with K5,K6,KT, T6, 66 maybe KQ, 66,. But he has to bluff non showdown hands like 78,69,89 any missed FD. So I dont have Equilab now, but I think its a call even the river bet is big.

2) Dont really like your sizing OTF because you get to fold nearly everything expect a Kx or sets. Maybe PP like TT+ peel one time but something like 55-99 is folding to this sizing but maybe call a little bit more if you bet a little less to have the calling range a litte looser.
But I would definitly bet bigger OTT because the board gets much more wet.
River is either c/f or c/c. Im thinking about a little block bet, if he raises you have a clear decision. But If hes aggressiv I would c/c here. In this case with these less informations I think I would c/f too.

yeah I gave him a strong T or maybe JJ . He had AT in this spot and snapped <1sec my push

Yeah I think it was a bad hand. I think betting to have some fold equity is better than checking/calling to hope to hit and make a big hand. I think the raise OTT is not good but i wanted to build a Pot, because I have pair +2nd NFD. But I think, check calling is fine and raising oder leading river if fine.

Main Thinking

I think AQ+is definitly a Value bet here. We have to figure out what kind of weaker hands will call on the turn. This are the FD, SD, weaker Qx combos, and sometimes low pockets like 66-JJ.
We are crushed by sets, some two pairs and straights.
Our hand is also not repped as Kings, because were in a single raised pot.
On the river bricks the FD and we are now ahead of some low 2 pair combos. But the main thing is it doesnt change mutch. We are still beat by sets who have fulls now and straights. We still beat low pockets and Qx Kombos.

Nl10 thinking

The regular player at theses stages play really straight forward. If somebody has a set on an FD board, hes most likely to reraise in a multiway pot, because at least one could call, and he has to protect his set because of the FD. If somebody of the 2 guys turns his straight he would lead out or raise the turn bet, because he now always having the best hand and has to protect of the FD.

On the River would every Full House lead out, because they are scared to miss value because the other villains could check behind.

Thats the Reason why we have got nearly in 99% of cases the best hand and not to bet here would miss soooo much Value. I got from KQ!!!! 53bb which increases my winrate.

In higher games were the people are more aggressiv I would consider to bet much more polarized here because they are getting with more hands to showdon.

Yeah turn is in my oppinion definitly a fold, but i wouldnt c bet here. The 3 bet pre is fine because your OOP etc. But the Flop is a kind of worse and i think its better to check here and see what he does.

I liked the way you played the hand. He could sometimes have some BDFD which arrives on the river but he could also call with a worse T i guess-. I liked you bet sizing for jamming the river

yeah a good fold I think. I think you could discount some combos which beats you like 88,55 because hes most likely to raise the flop. Sometimes he calls just with QQ on the FLop but normally would raise too. But with this line I see them nearly never bluffing. So I would fold here too and maybe think about a check behind on the turn.

Yeah I Totally Agree with this!

yeah but in this 3 way pot is my hand completly underrepresented- so i could also have the nuts here ir a bluff. a busted FD on the River which I might have to bluff- in the eyes of my opponents. and because they are unsure if they dont have the nuts- they dont raise or lead out...
JoINrbs, what stakes are u usually play?

Thank you for your work with calculating this, but I think you forgot some little Details.
These are Players at NL10- there is a Reason why they play this kind of stakes. Sprince said it before. They would never c/c bluffs, never c/r bluffs. So I expect them to call with a worse Q. Maybe the original raise hast sometimes AA which is really seldom. They would nearly alwasy bet QQ on the flop , turn and river. reraise sets and 2 pairs on the flop and turn. Lead out with the nuts. They play too honestly so they just call a weak range, (never) bluff raise the river but call TP 3barrels if the FD / SD misses. Thats the reason why I think we have always, no I really mean ALWAYS have to bet, because we are missing too much value if not.

yeah i Aggree- but if he have a lower pair i hope get value of the BB too.

I think shove is an option but because of the unknwon sb who could have a better hand i would bet>shove>check

yeah thats the only hand i think. QQ he would bet 3 times.

Her showed KQ

I think its a big big mistake not to value bet here. They play to hoonestly at theses stakes and they will call with much worse

I like both possibilities. On the one Hand we can c bet, because we can barrel a lot of turns. Any diamond, Q and A. We dont know if these outs are clean but vs unknwon player it would play it like this way- on the turn i would fold because it doesnt helped us much and its improving his range more than our..
On the other hand we will not build a Pot OOP, so c/c flop may be fine and maybe c/r turn when a Diamond hits could take it down, but this might a little bit optimistic

I dont like the C bet OTF because were betting againgst two players. The Board hits the Ranges of the People Really really hard and were just drawing to a J as a clean out. I think we could bet as a bluff other kombos with more Equity. I would c/f
Im also sure that he isnt too light in this spot beacuse of the SB.

yeah just let it go. Youre drawing for 2 outs that may save you and hes not often enough 3 betting you with TT or less pre and double barrel OOP on this runout.

I would isolate the Fish Preflop with a small 3 bet. I dont want to give a cheap prize to the other guys behind me to come along or to squeeze. I would call flop, but fold turn, because its in my oppinion unlikely that a fish plays a draw this way. I think hes most of the time ahead

I dont like the River bet, because he could check the turn for Pot Controll with all of his Pairs like maybe 99+. I think you turn your hand into a bluff and its not necessary. I also dont think that TT, JJ, QQ are checking the Flop, because they can get value of some weaker combos and TT, JJ maybe QQ need some protection

Yeah sounds logical. Your plan would be to c/f when a heart, T oder 5 arrives on the turn/river?