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Yeah, I'd definitely call.
We're getting 3:1 and villain should have more TT-JJ than 77-99 and if he has 87s, 98s and JTs he can probably also have T9s. Against this range [JJ-77,JTs,T9s,98s,87s] we have more than 40% and only need 25%. Even when we include every single JTo combo we still have 30%.

I prefer calling on the flop. We're not getting value from much worse. Some turns may be tricky to play, but we'll just have to deal with that.

Actually AQs is not doing too much worse against [JJ+,AK] (33% for 99 and 32% for AQs), and better vs [TT+,AK], [99+,AK] and [99+,AK,AQ]. It also blocks more value hands than 99 which increases the ratio of bluffs to value hands in villain's 3betting range and it plays better when villain just calls the 4bet.

The thing is, raising KhXh doesn't really accomplish much for villain (unless he thinks you're folding AK/AA which I honestly don't think most people would). Most people wouldn't . Some villains may raise but I think most regs wouldn't.
We make 12.4 when he folds and we pay 35.35 for ~33% equity in 79 (which means we lose 9.28 when he calls), according to your range. That means we need him to fold 43% of the time.

What is our range for calling a 3bet in this position?

I'm not saying the cbets or checkraises are bad, but just pointing out that you can't use the arguments you used in the OP.
The fact that you're winning in nonSD&SD when you x/r or does not mean you can x/r every hand profitably in a vacuum, because the sample you're basing this on also includes value hands.
But if people are folding ~40% on most boards that's a very good argument (and I just spotted the success vs 1 tab).

Even though he's only shown down 99 and TT, that doesn't mean those are the only 2 hands in his range. Like FriendlyCritter said, if he's 4b/c 99 he's pretty likely to be doing it w/AQ as well. He also has 21% 4b over 600 hands, so he will probably be 4b/folding more than you think. AK also has very important blockers against his value hands (blocks half of AA combos, half of KK combos and almost half of AK combos) which makes him 4b/f more likely.

Nice different post. I like the fact that you're doing this kind of database analysis (and sharing it on the forum), but I think we have a problem:
I think the conclusions you're drawing from the SD and nonSD winnings may be flawed. If we always cbet all in on the flop our nonSD winnings will go up, but our SD winnings will go down very fast. Your SD winnings have gone up because you're cbetting/checkraising a lot of value hands as well, you've also barreled more with value hands which further increases your nonSD winnings.
I think you will need to filter for cbets/checkraises where you had little to no equity to find out whether you're making a profit with those hands.

Regarding 3), that's very interesting, were you doing it with your whole range in every position?

Against such a wide 4b range just ship AK. He's going to be folding out a bunch of equity (I mean, even Q9s has 35% against AKs) and you won't be in bad shape when he calls.
OTF just get it in for value.

Cbet the flop imo, although I can see x/f possibly being better. It's hard for villain to have air, his worst hands are probably something like KQ/AJ or 66, some of which might call a flop bet. Maybe barreling a lot of turns is good, but we have a ton of better draws than 87. 87 gains more from folding out worse hands though, some of our better draws might be better as x/c. We should also have a lot more T's than villain.
After you check the flop, I think folding is better than calling. The board is paired and half of our outs complete a pretty likely FH (for us and villain), there's also a FD and 1/4 of our outs complete the flush. Basically this is a terrible situation to be chasing a straight.
As played x/f turn.
As played x/c river. After leading out, definitely don't call the shove.

Hero bets $4.24, BN raises to $14.22, Hero calls $5.74

Is there trouble with the HH converter?

Villain can have a lot of 7x hands and not a lot of worse hands:
Villain can't have a lot of flush draws because he can't have As, Qs or Ts. I'd say his only possible flushdraws are KJs, J9s and 98s. These draws also have straight draws so our equity against these hands is only 70%. He probably isn't raising KJ/98 without spades (and might not be raising the flush draws).
I believe he would hardly ever raise with Qx or worse
So you have very little fold equity and I wouldn't shove on the turn.

The fact that our best plan for the river when we hit might be to x/f shows that our implied odds aren't great, so I wouldn't call on the turn.

I think you should fold turn.

I really appreciate the effort I assume goes into making these in-depth theory videos. I find these videos more enlightening than most videos, because you're actually going into the core mechanics of why something is good and in which situations it applies. This makes the knowledge we get from this situation more widely applicable and going through the process also helps our thought process about the game in general. Thanks

Good post

If your opponent does not have enough bluff combos in his hand for you to call, even if he's betting every bluff combo, then GTO will be to fold. I know this means villain can bet every single hand in his range profitably, but that's just because his range is a lot stronger. This might mean villain was unbalanced earlier in the hand by betting too few bluff combos, or it might mean that the board has run out favourably for him. It might also mean our own range is just too weak because of some mistake we made.

If you think he has too few bluffs in his range OTR and nothing changed from the turn (no bluff combos became value combos), I think we should just have folded the turn.
However some players might realise your range is capped/weak when you check flop and be betting with enough bluff combos for us to make the call OTT and possibly OTR. I don't play these stakes though, so I have no idea if that's generally a reasonable assumption or not (though I'm guessing not).

I would probably fold the turn, I see passive players do this a lot more with weak made hands than draws like Kx here and the hand isn't over on the turn.

I don't play these stakes but this hand seems like a pretty good candidate for check/calling the flop to me. Wouldn't you rather like to x/r some fdraws, straights and sets?
Can you give your thought process for raising flop?

The thing is, he can't really have too many flushdraws. He probably won't raise KhXh. His possible flushdraws, if we're being optimistic, are [AhQh, AhJh, QhJh, Ah9h, Qh9h, Jh9h, 9h8h], since those flushdraws also have some straight outs our equity against those hands is only 56%. He can also still have his value hands so if we factor in TT and 44 we only have 35% equity. Even if the turn is an offsuit 3 we'll only have 42% equity if he continues with his whole range.

You included stats for UTG, but to analyze his decision we need your stats. But in this case it probably doesn't matter.

Do you think there's merit to leading turn?

Your value range is probably 22,66,TT,ATs,98cc right? That's 11 combos of value hands. Your bluff range probably consists mostly of fdraws? (You didn't include any stats on you so it's a bit difficult to estimate). I can't really even find 6 combos of non-nut flush draws for us to have here. KQcc, KJcc, QJcc? (but again your stats will influence this a bit).
I think this is a fold for UTG (but that doesn't necessarily mean it's a good bluff for you).

Yeah, I think your river fold is good, I can't see him doing this as a bluff and he could very well have AQ/JJ.

I definitely don't like the lead on the flop.
I think we might need to x/f this flop. If you think his 3b range is JJ+,AK then we have 35% against his range OTF. If it's JJ+,AQ+ we have 45%, and he will probably check AQ/AK back a decent amount of the time.

When he raises you can safely fold.

The 3bet on the flop is probably fine vs a player who looks aggressive and has a low fold to cbet. He can have some bluffs he will fold to the 3bet, AsX type hands (and KsJx and a few more) and flushes/66.

We have 39% vs this range (but it's probably a little optimistic): [66,QTs,AsJs,KsJs,As9s,Ks9s,Js9s,As8s,Ks8s,9s8s,As7s,Ks7s,8s7s,As5s,As4s,As3s,As2s,QTo,AsJd,AsJh,AsJc,AsTd,AsTh,AsTc,As9d,As9h,As9c,As8d,As8h,As8c,KsJd,KsJh,KsJc,KsTh,KsTc,Ks9d,Ks9h,Ks9c]
Yellow is As or Ks. Dark blue is flush.

If we assume he never flats our 3bet:
We're effectively raising 102.5 more, when we GII we have 39% in 221 so we lose 16.5bb when we get it in. We win 27bb when he folds so we need him to fold 38% of the time to breakeven given the above shipping range.

But I think calling his raise and evaluating on the turn might be better. Folding vs more action on any spade and betting/GII on most other cards.

I honestly have no idea. I believe the brand has a lot to do with it. They also have a more "standard" look, which might be more acceptable for an office.
I know Herman Miller offer a 12 year warranty and supposedly they generally retain their quality for a long time. But I haven't heard anything about the dxracer chairs, so they might as well be just as good.

Yeah, he definitely doesn't play all of his very strong hands this way, but he might, at least some of the time.

You managed to get everything across clearly :)

This might not be a shove, but I think if villain is calling down with a lot of JhXx combos then he probably has a bunch of random 6x, 5x, worse 9x he might call with. A pretty large part of his range that we beat is just air with a heart though, which we won't be getting value from.

Why did you lead the flop? (Not saying it's necessarily bad, just curious)
OTR, think about what villain's range is and what hands out of that range he might fold.
Do you think an unknown player at these stakes is going to fold a Q he called with OTT when the flush doesn't hit?
Other than some Qx, I think he might fold KTdd, JTdd, T9dd, but that's only 3 combos. He will also fold hands that we beat like AJss.

But the list of value hands he will might have played this way and won't fold OTR is larger: AA, KK, QQ, TT, 77, 66, AQ, QT, 89s, 76s are all possible.

I would x/f the river.

I started playing poker again around 6 weeks ago at NL2. I'm up to NL10 now hoping to start taking shots at NL16 this week.