offmenut's avatar

offmenut

11 points

Love the policies so far Phil. In my opinion the 2 last pieces of the puzzle are: a fair rake system (one based on rake/100 hands so plo is same as nl please :D) and a way of stopping screen scraping of cards. If you found a way of displaying Qs10s in a way that was really easy for a human to read but really difficult for a computer then you'll make online poker a much fairer game for everyone.

May 23, 2018 | 8:58 p.m.

The reason check folding the flop seems bad is because our hand strength is good - TPTK. However, PLO is more about playability than absolute hand strength when the SPR is high as equities run so close. What's your plan on the turn when betting the flop? The only cards good for our hand are non heart A or Q (J/7 are OK). We're unlikely to get the money in (ahead) on these cards so still have the river to deal with as well.

May 12, 2014 | 9:29 p.m.

I would be happy check/folding flop here, your just going to make far too many mistakes OOP with this hand for it to be profitable. As long as you balance your checking range I wouldn't be too worried about being exploited.

May 12, 2014 | 2:13 p.m.

Easy fold pre, both times. Would need a very good reason to call here i.e. HJ is very exploitable postflop and all players behind me are tight or there's a player behind me that is absolutely terrible.

Flop is fold. This board smashes a tight range and we they come out betting big into 4 strong ranges your hand is in big trouble

Oct. 21, 2013 | 4:58 p.m.

My instinct is to flat pre but when I think about it I do I like a 3-bet, here's why: 

Folds out tonnes of high flush cards we want out the pot.

We can comfortably call a 4 bet as well if we have too. Our hand is 42% against random AA.

This hand really isn't good multiway - lots of gaps, no nut flush draw, dominated by middle/big rundows.

With initiative IP we can play boards where we flop the low end of draws passively by checking behind. This also strengths our check back range on these types of boards.

We need some middle cards in our 3 bet range here to avoid getting exploited on the middle boards.

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Oct. 18, 2013 | 7:35 a.m.

Loving this discussion and I can fully see your points as valid. However I'm still not convinced that we aren't losing value.

What I meant by the bluff-catcher part was that when we flop hands like AQ*r we're going to get hardly any action when we're good. Most players will 1 and done these type of flops and certainly won't call a raise unless we're beat. You could of course say we'd get less action if we 3 bet but I think most players would call 1 60% bet on the flop with A + gutshot in a 3 bet pot so we'd make more money. 

The flops we can get a lot of money in where we're massively ahead are:

K high/Q high dry flops, especially those players who love shipping these flops with any K/Q to attempt to get AA to fold.

When we flop a flush draw*.

Your last point you make about our hand only being slightly ahead of a 15%!AA is true. However, the hands that make this equity closer are KK-JJ hands. These types of hands will sometimes fold preflop (think bad KK) which is a massive win for us as we're folding out hands that could potentially dominate us and cause a massive implied odds situation (set vs top 2 etc). These hands that do well against us preflop also have an extremely hard time realizing their equity as most of the time all they flop is an overpair which we can put a lot of pressure on and usually fold out at some point in the hand.

The final point that kind of ties in is that by just flatting here we are inviting the one type of hand we really don't want - set mining hands. There's plenty of flops we would love to get the money in with this hand on the flop but none of them are doing well against a set except wrap+ flush draw.

I only use the online ppt, in odds oracle can you get the odds of you flopping a flush draw?

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Oct. 17, 2013 | 8:05 p.m.

If we give him 15% UTG range which seems very realistic then he only has AA 17% of the time. If we have an A he only has it 10% of the time! We want to get as much money as possible against a strong high card weighted hand - we're just going to print money. The lower the SPR the lighter villain will stack off, by just flatting we're losing all the times where we can get it in as a big favorite. The majority of good hands for us postflop with a high spr are essentially just bluff catchers where we're not going to get much action on.
Also, you could look at the losing 10bb thing the other way round and think of reverse implied odds of the times they have AA/KK and you end up calling all 3 streets with top 2 pair etc when you could have just 3 bet/folded.

Oct. 17, 2013 | 2:02 p.m.

Ah, my mistake. This spot is very player dependent, the only really strong hands on this flop are sets and wrap and presuming we have a tight MP opening range (15%) we flop one of these hands less than 6% of the time. This obviously makes it a great spot to bluff, if villain knows this and is bluffing here a decent amount of the time like he should be then flop is a 3bet. If he's playing straightforwardly and would never bluff here its an easy fold to the flop raise.

Oct. 17, 2013 | 12:31 p.m.

I quite like a peel here IP, Villain could be doing this with tonnes of combo draws which we're doing well against. We've got 7 outs to the nuts and our range looks a lot like a draw here so we could consider bluffing loads of rivers.

Oct. 17, 2013 | 10:58 a.m.

How could it be a big mistake? As I said before someone else on the table has AA here only 16% of the time when we have an A. If we do get 4bet we fold and yeah that sucks but we only lose 10bb whereas the amount of time we get called by hands we dominate and gii with better draws or made hands would be much more significant. Flatting with this hand we end up with a tonne of bare top pairs which would of happily got it in with a lower SPR but now have to play a multiway pot with nfd + pair being best case senario or big lockdown straights which hardly ever get any action.

Oct. 17, 2013 | 9:15 a.m.

Have to pot/gii here. If he has 9T it sucks but there's 5 different cards that bring straight draws with a 10 or A being the most likely as he's definitely calling all Q10s but not all 109s. In terms of him calling with 2 pair, we're a 35% dog if this happens and we need 38% to b/e here. We expect him to shove KJ otf so we're worried about K7 and J7 which is only a tiny amount of his range whens he's this loose. We block an 8 which makes it less likely he has paired the turn.
Just an FYI, if you'd of potted the flop to $15 you'd need 35% to b/e ott so you wouldn't even be worried about 2 pair. 


Oct. 17, 2013 | 7:41 a.m.

You can only go on the information you have available, your leaving money at the table by not using this information imo. I'm not really hot on maths but I'd like to see the probability of these stats being +-10/5 of his real stats. Got to be a lot more likely than him being a 18/12.

Oct. 17, 2013 | 7:16 a.m.

Leading flop doesn't seem to accomplish anything in this spot and in fact is extremely -EV, we have no backdoors and there's going to be a flush draw by the turn 75% of the time. The only good card for us is a J, a Q brings in the most likely draw as does a 7 when we hit the lower end. Seems like a very easy c/f.


Oct. 16, 2013 | 1:29 p.m.

Wow @ flatting pre against someone running 55/26 I know it's only 31 hands but still... With the A blocker we only run into AA 16% of the time here and this hand flops amazingly well. I'd rather 3 bet this than AA75ss especially against a villain that appears loose.

As for the flop, we have to put him on a tight range without further reads and we have 39% vs { KK, JJ, 22 , Add, K2, QdTd, JdTd92 }. We need 42% to gii without taking into account the CO. Looks like a fold to me.


Oct. 16, 2013 | 1:14 p.m.

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