nlwolf

Re: LuckyGump hand @ 22:00 - where he pot/pots on J94ss 6s

If I understand your assumptions correctly the situation is that:

1) Gump 3bet pre around 30%

2) He pots range of FD,WR,OE, 2PR> {2pair or better}and (TP,OP)+GD> {that is top pair or better with gutshot or better), and then pots turn with this entire range.

If that is correct your flop equity is just 41%, and you should fold turn on any spade (except 9s), K,Q,T, J.

In particular you should be folding on 6s, because you have 30% equity and need 36%.

Very interesting hand. I thought our equity would be better, around 50%, but not 41 (given my assumptions).

Also - what leads you to believe he'd just jam hand like AAKQ - with overpair and gutter on the turn?

Wouldnt it be more +EV for him to CC?

I agree that reasoning seems inconsistent.

Villain has (roughly speaking) 6 bluff combos (88xx) and 8 value combos, if he only raises turn with nuts or blockers. Even if we add some PR+OE and PR+WR hands, i doubt bluff outnumber value more than 2:1.

So if villain checks with 75% of his bluffs and 50% on the river, that ratio is around 1:2 in favor of value hands...

I'm also intersted to hear about Phil read on $390 bet size and why it is often a desperation bluff. I would jam with both bluffs and value. This is because id hate to get shoved on in both cases.

This isn't logical, but id be less annoyed if i shoved bluff and got called by a better hand, than having to bet/fold like that. Of course from GTO perspective jamming here is best bet size.

Villain's river bet/call was spectacular btw :)

Making more +EV play is not always optimal. Example: flipping for entire bankroll just once, while having 50.00000001% equity.

Another example: which gamble would you choose?

1. Guaranteed 1 billion USD.

2. 50/50 chance of winning either 0 or 2bln and 1 dollar.

Gamble #2 has EV that is $0.5 higher, but it has lower expected utility for pretty much every person on earth.

More interesting problem was raised earlier.

Say the estimated EV of best play is +1bb. We never win exactly 1bb, but different amounts (from getting stacked to winning a stack) which according to the model yields 1bb on average.

But our analysis is itself uncertain. Under different assumptions maybe the answer would be +2bb or -2bb.

If, hypothetically speaking, variance of our estimate varies between -100bb to +100bb, being 1bb on average then value of such estimate is low.

Here is an interesting example, suppose you face a problem, and there are 11 solutions.

Default one has EV of 10 units.

You take 10 experts and have each produce estimate of one of remaining solutions, and they come up with following results: {14, 7, 10, 9, 6, 8, 6, 12, 8, 10}

Is chosing option 1, with EV of 14 really better than default ?