newradical

I was suprised when you decided to fold the set of nines on K96 2-tone board (@ 17 mins). But after you share your thoughts, it all makes sense. My guess is that you can make this kind of fold only when you know who you are playing against. Would you commit if you would have raised and get called by the same player in the button, and, let say, a decent player in the big blind? How relevant is the "there-is-a-recreational-limping-factor" in your decision process? Thanks for the great video, and I'm looking forward to read your book in english. I'm glad I won't have to learn polish :)

same question here.

It was played on Full Tilt before it merged with Pokerstars. It's variance filled.

I'm fine with Lifted Mindset analysis until

If we get raised. I think we can find a fold.

I disagree with that comment. Once we bet flop (as we should and as hero did), we protect our hand against hands that can turn a fair share of equity. Those hands include backdoor str8 draws, flush draws, small two pairs, gutshots etc. Those hands may check behind on the flop, and on the turn we will have a hard time deciding to bet or not. This decision will even be harder on the river. There are very few scenarios where we check flop and then bet two streets. Il you check flop, bet turn, very rarely your hand will be strong enough to bet river. Most of the time you will be bluff catching.

If we get raised on the flop, I think we just have to get it in. There are very few sets in our opponent's range. With VPIP of 35, there are very few 22xx and 55xx in his range, and we block QQxx. He may even be tempted to raise QXXX to make us fold a hand like KKxx that we may have decided to lead with.

I would definitely cbet here. Otherwise your range becomes capped and you will not be able to represent much on on later streets. A x/r is ambitious unless you opponent is known to stab when checked to. With 20 hands, you don't have such info. x/c may not be bad, but if you play check-call, you will have to give up many turn card if your opponent starts beting again. A standard 2/3rd pot c-bet seems fine. I would be cautious if str8 card comes on turn, and play check call on turn if we hit a diamond. A check-call may be good as part of a balancing play, but I would c-bet here 80%+ of the time expecting a decent amount of fold, and to keep control of the betting on the turn+river.

A check on the turn would make your range capped. I think you have to make a turn c-bet that looks like you are commiting. You may induce folds to his flop call range that beats you, and he may also folds hands that have some of your outs in bad shape. I think hero has a lot of AQxx type hands that you can make him fold on the turn, especially if he has no spade draw. His 9Txx are just a small part of his flop calling range (I would need a simulation on propokertools to back me, but I think I'm right with that). On the river you will essentially be bluff catching, thin value betting, or folding. I may be too simplistic in my reasoning, but to live a simple life, I would refrain from making a difficult decison on the river by commiting on the turn.