Michael Skitmore

Thanks Prince, excuse my ignorance, how do i do that? :)

Reasons to bet would be, your hand is vulnerable to a large part of his range here J10,JQ,JK,KQ,K10,Q10 etc and you need to protect it.

Reasons to check are that, really, not many hands you beat are going to call maybe 77, 8x and club draws. But if he calls then you are not going to know what to do on river if you don't improve.

I probably check and let him stab again with his air. A lot of regs to check back weak aces on boards.

Yeah I think it is a clear fold. Your line is fine.

I would expect him to 3 bet flop with QQ or KK given how wet board is, so it looks pretty nuts polarized when he jams turn.

Only hands he can really have you are winning to would be Q10hh or QJhh, or maybe AQhh, otherwise I think this is always a straight.

I cant see him doing this with K10 or Q10 not hearts or even KQ.

I think you played hand fine. I think I would have played it same way. River is clear fold. He always has a boat here.

Only thing I would consider differently is x/c turn. The J is not a great card for your range as opposed to an ace, or K/Q obv.

Some of his range is 77-99 (which may fold to turn barrel on a J) but otherwise I think he has a lot of FD and 10x which probably wont fold turn, which is why maybe a x/c maybe better, but its marginal.

thanks guys, seems a split on call or fold, which has vindicated my decision to tank and i'm happy my call doesnt seem a "clear mistake".

He had K9 - puke :)

I would have played it identical to you but I agree donking is better - I also don't donk enough and this is a perfect candidate to do that. You can never fold here ott imo.

Easy shove, you only worry about 77 and 76 or gross JJ. J6 would have bet the turn (if we even include that)

This fish could easily be raising the river with AA-QQ, AJ, or any jack with clubs imo. He will only think about his hand and not your range. I can hear him thinking to himself "YES TOP PAIR, RAISE, GIVE ME MONEY"

You crush so many more hands than you lose to - 55 is also in his range which we beat too.

We have to take action vs his whole range on the turn, we dont know that he has a flush draw or an overpair or a fh on the turn, we don't know what the river card or action is going to be. I'm saying as played I call river, but in this situation I don't see how a turn raise is bad (I don't know what river is going to be on the turn obviously :)

Knowing his 4b frequency would help. I would argue folding preflop is the best play once he 4bets. Are we sb and he is button? Sorry i am assuming that as BT but i notice then he leads flop - do we check first?

if we are OOP vs him, calling 4 bet with this hand i think is not good, we are crushed by his 4 betting range. I would need reads that he 4 bets light to call QJs oop.

As played I think it can go either way - neither play is "wrong". The worst hand he gets it in with otf if we shove is KQ probably (which is obv terrible for us) AK would be better. Or even A10ss which we beat.

Vs AK we have 50/50, vs KQ we have 42% so getting it in is never a bad play. Just means we dont get "value" from his bluffs. Does mean we likely have to fold turn though if we brick.

I probably get it in!

Your hand is so huge on turn I would raise. It gets value from his bigger flush draws, as if river bricks he isnt going to put anymore money in the pot.

It also gets money in pot if he has JJ-AA and will then kill action if flush completes on river (together with the trips). Ok he may fold overpairs on turn if you raise (and we obv want to keep them in) but we dont know he will definitely fold. If he has you marked as a LAG he might interpret your raise ott as a steal (as its the perfect card for you to rep if you floated the flop).

If he has A10 so be it we have outs, and if he has 22/33 just a cooler.

River is close but I think a call. We only have to be good little over 1 in 3 times and flush over flush is pretty rare occurence.

Nice hand nice post, interesting spot!

I don't like the lead in a 3 way pot otf. I don't see what your aim is - a weaker hand is not going to call, the only better hand that is going to fold is AK or maybe 33/44 but its such a small part of his range. You have good equity vs at least one, probably both villains. By leading you allow one of them to raise you off your hand. I prefer checking and then you can see if button bets and how the fish in the sb reacts.

Once you bet flop and button calls, i think you played rest hand fine.

River is a shove for me, i would almost never expect him to have a set here as ott the board is getting scary for him and i would expect vast majority of people to raise turn here with a set.

If he has Q10 then so be it but I think so unlikely. Feels like 10x such as 910 through A10 or maybe JJ. QQ-AA would have 4 bet pre

Preflop is ok, although I think you need to consider 4 betting here otherwise your hand is too awkward to play oop vs 2 players (if we assume nit is always overcalling due to price)

Call flop 100% time. Turn dependent on action. I would not expect him to barrel worse hands than yours on the turn into an utg raise/call 3b and a nit overcall.

I understand why you took the action you did as it is pretty gross when you get it in here or call down and he inevitably has KK/AA but I think folding QQ here is going to make you too exploitable, even at 50NL - i play 50NL myself so I am not criticising your play one bit but I think this is just a bit too tight.

Hi Cameron, great video as usual. I notice you like to not continuation bet a proportion of your flush draws on the flop. You will x/c flop or check behind. Is this purely for deception as when you hit your hand people never put you on a flush? I don't see this play often and I am wondering if it is something I should be doing more? I always thought we should be betting flops where we have good equity such as 1 or 2 overs and a flush draw. Particularly with nut draws, where we can get value from smaller flush draws? Is it just regs you will do this with?

Ok well thanks for comments guys, I feel better in myself for not having a clue what to do, as I have 2 calls and 2 folds on the posts! haha

I really do not expect him to have QQ or KK here, given the pre flop action. I know you say he flats a lot but it would be really odd not to 3bet those hands in position.

So that leaves 66 or KQ as his value range (I'm ruling out other 2 pair combos obv)

He's so much more likely to have KQ than 66 obviously. Plus this also assumes he is only raising the turn with a value hand and never a bluff, which might be true, but it's not guaranteed.

With no fd on board I call here then depending on river I lead or x/jam.

I agree with you it's pretty gross, but for me you have to get this in here and if he has 66, so be it, it's a cooler. With a lot of set over set stack offs there are reasons to fold. IMO, on this board with the action there are not enough reasons to make folding bottom set here +EV

I like the way you play this. I'd play it very similar. I'd expect you to be winning here most of the time at showdown. It looks like you have KK-1010 the way you played it. He probably stabs here with a lot of air and smaller pairs. You can obv chop with AJ on river too. I think he bets turn 100% of time with AQ or AK

Personally I would raise the turn like always. You get value from his Ax and flush draws, plus if he doesn't have a flush draw but has a strong A like AQ AK and the 3rd diamond hits river it's going to slow him down and you probably wont get much action as he might think you made a flush.

River I think is a fold, its pretty gross. In my experience at 25nl people just never x/r ship the river with bluffs, it's nearly always the nuts.

Yes. On the flop if he had 33,44,55,54,53 I would expect him to raise as it is such a draw heavy board. I think he hardly ever has a boat here. 67 is also raising flop imo. I think his most likely holdings are 66-1010 or some flush draw. Plus, your hand is so well disguised.

Pretty standard I think. hand plays itself, I dont think your deep enough to fold the turn given your only really scared of 3 hands (99, 1010 and QJ)

I think your sizing could be better. Personally i'd bet 1.50 on flop and 3+ on turn :)

Up until turn I think you play it fine. I always check back turn here. I just can't see how your bet gets weaker hands to call or better to fold. I think he has very few draws in his range so just take free card. If he then barrels river you have one of those "ffs" decisions

ok thanks guys always good to learn mistakes! Do we really think I'm winning to his river shove more often than not?

I would 4 bet here just so you know where you stand and to try to isolate the fish. QQ dont play amazing 3 handed OOP. I think you have to bet turn otherwise fine