
moomin007
3 points
What do people think about a shove once you get to the river? vs weaktight he maybe doesn't have any 6's in his range or straight draws/gutters that pick up fd on the turn. I think he would fold most Ahighs on turn as he can't have picked up NFD.
At my stakes (2nl) i would'nt barrel this turn too often on this card with air, probably fire a JQK and spades. So i feel he might interpret your range to be strong on this river and 1 pair hands alot after tanking?
Sept. 3, 2014 | 12:36 p.m.
(i play 2nl) Agree with above. This is a good cbet board so i would bet here with AK and hope villain doesn't believe me.
How big a sample is that? If you have no history i would definitely not make a non standard balance type play here, especially not at these micro stakes, i think you loose to much value.
His stats look like he is a tight player (preflop) who was playing his strong range aggressively judging by his super high WWSF so i wouldn't read to much into them. I could be wrong though - maybe its a big sample??
As played i would snap call here and I agree wtih your analysis. I think his can show up with 55, spades semi bluff enough of the time (with no reads)
Sept. 2, 2014 | 9:58 a.m.
Yeah looks like he has a full house with way he played it. I think most villains at these stakes will play very honest in a 3way pot so I don't think he is going to bet a draw on the turn w/ CO to act behind him. He probably just check and hope CO checks. Also i think players that are not fish will cold call 3bets with hands like 88 - QQ, AK, AQ more so than suited connecters and weak aces. Fold is good i reckon.
For him to be value betting worse or bluffing is very unlikely IMO
Sept. 2, 2014 | 9:23 a.m.
edit. I just saw villains stack size so I don't think i am folding here!
Sept. 2, 2014 | 9:07 a.m.
Do you have any stats on the villain? I am starting from the bottom at 2nl (not sure how 5nl plays yet compared to these.)
If villain is a fishy player i would almost always call here and see river because he only raised small. I think if he raised bigger i would fold and agree with analysis above.
But with this sizing i think you call and see how much he bets on the river purely because i have seen some very strange lines from fish at these stakes with alot of weak hands they are over valuing (also don't forget you have a gutter and could suck out with an Ace or board pairing card if he is ahead.)
Also i think you should bet flop bigger to get max value (i dont think you need to worry about balancing you bet sizing to much at the stakes, at least 2nl anyway.)
He raised the button not defend according to the HH? His range includes alot more flushes than that IMO any Txdd , 97dd etc. think he will jam any flush here due to ur bet size. I would fold. I mean u are assuming he is capable of turning a made hand into a bluff here.
(i have just started playing poker again after a 4 year break so not sure how the games play yet.)
Also think a bet on the river is too thin with a 4 card straight and flush out to get value from worse. U don't even have the nut straight. Again could be wildly off here
Sept. 4, 2014 | 9:15 a.m.