montana

forCarlotta But we are IP so if he doesn't fire we can always bet ourselves. OOP would be a different story but even then, SPR is low in a 3b pot. Could shove river unless board gets ugly.

My assumption would be that most players underbluff rivers at 10NL so I'd fold. Donking on the flop should be fine for him on this board though, good flop for his range.

Would have to analyze villain's flop and turn ranges to make sense of it. TsTx and especially ThTx seem to have better equity compared to TdTc. Heart and spade blocking something but not sure what. We should block some fd and backdoor fd bluffs but that should make it a more likely fold, not a call.

Used to have it on repeat while playing poker. Can't say for sure if it's more relaxing than other ambient tracks, but it's nice indeed.

Basic version is still very useful. You should also consider other solvers, though my personal favorite is Pio. GTO+ is only $75 but I haven't tried it and don't know how it compares to Pio.

I had the same experience with yoga. Now it feels great though. Keep going!

Generally players at these stakes should fold too much OOP to IP c-bets, but this is against SB and I suspect his range is rather broadway heavy. But AT has equity and combined with some fold equity I'd prefer it as a c-bet over a check.

I'm more split about the turn. Probably good either way. I wonder though if having a heart would be better, either AhTx or AxTh, since then we'd block some flush draws and that would give us more fold equity and if river would be a heart, we could continue bluffing again because of the blockers. I could be completely wrong here though.

Never really watched any streams before, but I enjoyed it. Hope you keep it up. Good luck!

One time I was studying push/fold ranges with a software (don't remember the name). Then after the study started playing hypers. Next day my account was locked. At that point I had no idea what was going on. Contacted the support and they explained I had this software open and it's not allowed. I apologized and told them I didn't actually use it during the play. Wouldn't have time for it anyway multi-tabling hypers. My account was opened again but was told not to have any software open again that is in their forbidden list, or I'd get banned permanently.

So if they do lock your account, just write them an email and be more careful next time. But I think if you closed it right away that won't happen. They probably only take action if you have it open while playing.

Everyone is different, but for me personally it was mostly hero-calling rivers all the time. I have this amazing ability to convince myself that everyone is always bluffing. Eventually I started analyzing these spots and saw they were bluffing significantly less than they should.

5nl players have very tight responses to 4bet+. We'd essentially be turning JJ into a bluff, which would still be +EV but I think calling is a better option.

Hearts of Iron and Civilization. Love and hate those games. They're fun but when you start playing the whole day just flies by.

Are you running Pokerstars as admin? For me hotkeys don't work unless I do that. Though it doesn't seem to matter if PT4 HUD is running or not, so you're probably having a different problem.

Edit: actually just tested and hotkeys do work without HUD and stop with HUD unless I run Pokerstars as admin. So try that. Should work.

Is Wim shower a cold shower? I fell in love with cold showers a few months ago. Don't even care if it really has any health benefits. Just enjoy the feeling afterwards. Also, what's a homeystretch?

Gl!

Last month I was 15 buy-ins under EV over 23k hands. I remember this happening before too so I'd think 21 buy-ins over 43k hands probably isn't that unlikely. Not sure how to actually calculate it though. I guess you'd have to know your winrate and standard deviation in all-in situations?

I'd say bet is still better. We won't get raised very often. It's just that when we do we're up against a very tight range. Most of the time I'd expect a call with plenty of worse hands than AQo.

From a theory perspective it would be a significant mistake to fold, but that's because villain also bluffs here plenty, in theory. Then the question is, how would the average player at 5nl play here and how should we adjust? I think we won't see enough bluffs here. The bluffs we do see have good equity against our hand. So I think it becomes a pretty clear fold.

I'd call here. Definitely not folding. Villain has quite a few worse Ax, Jx hands that we dominate. I don't see a good reason to 3-bet though. He has no problem defending enough so it can't be justified as a bluff, but the defending range is going to be too strong for AJo to be a value 3-bet.

Villain EV when villain bets all combos:
1/2100 + 1/2(1/2200 - 1/2100) = 125

1/2100 + 1/2(1/2200 - 1/2100) = 75

1) Fold (maybe 3bet 25-50% or so)
2) Fold
3) 3bet

Crushing so far. Hope you get well soon!

There's also something wrong with you if you want to call with 4% equity.

Pfft, don't be a wimp. GII!

I wrote 49% at first but noticed I had accidentally included some weak hands in villain's shoving range that he'd never shove. Fixed that and got 43%. And then in the comment I changed 49 to 43...or so i thought... xD

I get about 4% equity. KK most likely 4-bets quite a bit pre, though some AK too. Also gave him some more flush draws that he sometimes shoves (lower Ax and some sc but with a low weight). I'd say a good call.

@Nelsonwelson
Actually, he opened from CO. For some reason it shows it as MP. K9o on CO could be an open, depending on the opponents. Then if someone who 3-bets, but folds a lot to a raise, this could be an exploitable 4-bet. Not my favorite hand for that but could get away with it sometimes. It is 25nl after all. So, generally yes, pre was bad, but might be profitable in the right circumstances.

If we assume that he calls AK on the flop, then I think we shouldn't be even betting flop. Not enough fold equity based on the range I gave villain. Even if we assume that he only defends AK with flush draw and backdoor flush draw, still I don't see this being a bet. Partly because we already block Kc and that reduces his folding range.

On the turn, Q will make him fold TT maybe but not much else. It actually improves his KQhh, AQhh and AK. AK would fold but I don't think he would even call AK 100% pre, so it's a small portion of the range. I prefer a check.

The thing about such tight ranges is though that a few combos here and there can shift our strategy so it can really depend on what ranges we give to the opponent in the first place.

That's a nice winrate for 100nl. Should be able to do well at 200. Gl and lots of $!

I try to follow the rule of always assuming the best on the internet since it's easy to misinterpret what the other person is saying. It saves a lot of awkward situations where you think a person said something rude, but in reality it just sounded rude because it was a quick response and the person maybe didn't think it through properly. And it reduces internet tilt in general. If you got upset over every rude or potentially rude thing on the internet then that's just exhausting.

No, I was pretty serious xD
I think from a theory perspective it would be a fold. But now that I'm thinking, 25NL players probably call too much on BTN vs UTG, especially this player since he has only 41BB and is probably fishy, so a squeeze seems good.

1) Fold.
2) Fold.
3) Fold.

Qh makes it a little worse but I'm still inclined to call. He can have some, KJhh, KThh, JThh, possibly some sc, and not that many stronger value hands, unless he calls with AK. I think best would be to fold pre though.