Matt Wakeman

Check flop vs described villain. If he's calling that wide pre then the cbet for the most part will be ineffective. I would check and feel it out based on his sizing whether I wanted to c/c, c/f, or c/r. I don't think it matters very much at all the times we c/f vs this villain though if he is coming after you I would just wait until I made a pair and take him to value town...

Also, because it's FT bubb of a pretty soft tourny, I don't really want to be getting into spots like this and end up hero'ing off my equity.

I think your analysis of his range is just about spot on. He might check 33 again on this turn expecting to see a bet a large% of the time so I would add that in for sure.

You need to win this 43% of the time and against his range (33/AQss/AJss/QJss/QTs+/T9s/JTs/KTs/ATs) you only have about 25% equity. So with that given it is a pretty clear fold.

The only other option here is to jam. You have a T blocker and there are very few boats in his range (33/KT; 6 combos), but I really doubt any of his hand range can find a fold given that he would be calling less than 6k into a pot of like 27k, and obv getting like 5-1. I think jamming would be pretty suicidal here given the makeup of his range and the odds he's getting. I just fold river.

Seems like a super easy jam.

I mean, I have him tagged and see him around. He's never stood out to me a lot though and I don't have the best memory for reg tendancies unless I note something.

I mean, I guess I was a little confused because I thought villain was pretty competent/capable but then I looked at stats that suggested he was far nittier. The current state of games I think good players c/r these types of boards as a bluff witha relative high frequency because it hits their perceived range so well.

If that was the case then he could certainly have some no equity hands like 66 or something in his range here. The more I think about it, the more I think his range is likely as you described minus the KJo's and maybe add in some AJ's, but I guess it was what was stumping me. I was pretty sure I was behind his value range, but what weight do we give to people bluffing this type of texture these days with like 66.

Agree with everything Phil said. But I would also add that I think your turn sizing is a little small. I think betting closer to 70-75% of the pot ott would be better...

Yeah i like to fold here unless I have a specific read on the player (that he's capable).

Agree w/everything you have said Randy.

Agree with Grayson's assessment. Looks WP, though I may have gone for the Gii pre vs described villain since even a lot of his bluffrange will have good eq and be in pos vs you post.

Glad you posted this because it's made me think about some things I haven't really thought about before. Could still be wrong though...

The main value of 88 w/23BB's is your ability to get it in pre-flop, either by r/c or r/4bJ. Looking at this it seems rather uncomfortable to be getting it in pre first hand of major FT vs anyone else at the table (Even UTG/UTG1). Furthermore, there are a couple of regs in LP/SB who are very capable of taking advantage of the stack setups and the known tight range we can actually get it in with here. I think openfold is best as nitty as it actually feels.

If we are to open this spot we might even be better off opening like A5s/QJs or something that has blockers to people's 3b ranges/jam ranges, and also plays well post...

eek. Not sure what to think here. If you were to construct a range preflop I don't actually think it would be super wide given the stacks in the blinds... So it's very possible that he has limited Jx combos to begin with here...

In saying that, I think the way you played the hand was fine and fold the river. He is a reg and knows you're getting over 4-1 on river vs a jam when your range is not capped in any way.

I don't really expect him to turn Ax into a bluff, I think he would call with that a lot. If we take the Ax out of his range, the amount of hands he can actually have on the river to bluff with is quite slim.

Generally speaking people are peeling in pos. from BB fairly wide here so I prefer c-betting to fold out some smaller equity segments of his range rather than c/f vs a lot of that (when we are almost always facing a bet otf on this texture when we ck). Furthermore, we can still actually be c-betting for value here anyways given that the texture allows for villain to have a lot of non-paired decent equity hands.

The turn is interesting because I think we can efficiently c/c, but it will undoubtedly leave some awkward river situations. Even though betting the turn has some merits; We can still bet for value against non-paired equity hands, there is also the possibility of some of those hands bluff-raising here. I think c/c is a decent plan and evaluate rivers (calling non K/8/9/T/spade rivers perhaps).

I think 3x pre would be better at this stack depth and would also cbet a tad bigger (65%) on this texture).