On the 2c7cAc7d board, was interesting spot so tried to look at it further
Doing some rough numbers (using Odds Oracle for the first time so feel free to point out if I'm using it horribly wrong ): Giving him top 30% of hands pre (seems about right giving his 3 betting freq) and saying his check call range (not including floats and AA)
22 0.54%
(A7,A2,72)!(AA,77,22) 11.35%
(A)!(AA,77,22,A7,A2,72) 57.67%
cc!(22,A2,A7,27,(A)!(AA,77,22,A7,A2,72)) 30.43%
For simplicity if the turn and river gets checked through we have 55.5% equity vs this range. $7104/55.48 = $3941 Lets take the option of betting the turn and shoving the river which costs $17420 if called.
Example 1, Calling houses, folding flushes
22 : 0.0054% *17420 = -94 (A7,A2,72)!(AA,77,22) 00.1135% *17420= -1977 00.881*7140 = 6290 So net equals + $4219 There's a few other factors like he can have a flush and boat up. Also would have to gauge a % where he calls turn and folds river which obviously returns a bigger win for us. But then he's probably not folding 100% of flushes. I guess there's also some added value by taking out the river decision if it's potentially an overall losing spot for us. I guess checking seems like a better play based on those numbers. Without the blocker it would be decent loser I'd imagine.
34mins
On the 2c7cAc7d board, was interesting spot so tried to look at it further
Doing some rough numbers (using Odds Oracle for the first time so feel free to point out if I'm using it horribly wrong ): Giving him top 30% of hands pre (seems about right giving his 3 betting freq) and saying his check call range (not including floats and AA)
220.54%
(A7,A2,72)!(AA,77,22)
11.35%
(A)!(AA,77,22,A7,A2,72)
57.67%
cc!(22,A2,A7,27,(A)!(AA,77,22,A7,A2,72))
30.43%
For simplicity if the turn and river gets checked through we have 55.5% equity vs this range.
$7104/55.48 = $3941
Lets take the option of betting the turn and shoving the river which costs $17420 if called.
Example 1, Calling houses, folding flushes
22 : 0.0054% *17420 = -94
(A7,A2,72)!(AA,77,22) 00.1135% *17420= -1977 00.881*7140 = 6290
So net equals + $4219
There's a few other factors like he can have a flush and boat up. Also would have to gauge a % where he calls turn and folds river which obviously returns a bigger win for us. But then he's probably not folding 100% of flushes. I guess there's also some added value by taking out the river decision if it's potentially an overall losing spot for us. I guess checking seems like a better play based on those numbers. Without the blocker it would be decent loser I'd imagine.
Nov. 16, 2013 | 4:49 a.m.