mickman

Hey man, enjoy your analysis.
@45.30 QQ facing the 2x pot river overbet. What is your calling range there?
It seems like a pretty terrible spot to be in facing a bet size like that as we have basically nothing to call with other than 99, we never have 2p or flushes. Also seems like a good spot for Villain to go berserk as we look really weak and that river can hit a lot of his turn xr semi bluffs that didn't want to lead turn for a fear of fold equity, 87 and weak FD type stuff.
Cheers

Have you ran any sims to get to those conclusions or is that just your gut feeling?
Maybe you mean standard and prints money from a +chip perspective?
A 50k pay jump when you have 2x the smallest stack is a really high variance spot with 55 .
For 55 to be a call Fish needs to be Jamming 60% - the top 10% of hands which just seems way off what he would shove in practice.

If Fish plays a strat where he r/c 9.5%: 66+,A8s+,ATo which I think is unlikely given a chunk of those hands don't like to raise/c, so I think that range is maybe closer to 88+,AT.
Then say he jams 40%: 55-22,K2s+,Q2s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,86s+,76s,65s,A9o-A2o,K2o+,Q7o+,J8o+,T8o+,98o,87o.
Holdem resource Calc says 55-22 aren't profitable calls. I don't think he is shoving that range but it's fairly difficult to know.

Good vid m8!
@20.50 AJs reshove. How aggressive do you think we can be with our reshove range here vs. the aggro guy?
A5/A2o SB 3bet spots vs. Ministerborg that we pass up. In general I don't like 3betting Axo OOP against a good player but can we really be waiting for ideal hands in those spots?
The 37.33 spot with A5o, given our assumptions that he is opening ATC seems like our success rate will be huge here. If we make it 6x to go, then he is in a very nasty spot with a chunk of hands like small PPs Axs,KJo,QJo,J9s,76s where he may just fold given it's potentially a high variance spot against the chip leader.
Seems overall he is playing a range that it's impossible to defend against 3bets and he is likely folding at least 75%+ and probably closer to 85%.
Thanks

Hi mate,
@20mins The QJo shove, I wasn't a fan of that, I think it should be a raise/fold. The only way I think it's a profitable shove is if we shove everything and I don't think we are doing that.
You said you are rasing really polar, so I guess something like TT+, AQs+, AKo and some raise folds QTo,JTo,Axo,Kxs type stuff.
If you are shoving the range in the picture the EV of QJo is -.24bbs.
If you fold K9s,Q9s,J9s,T9s then it goes to break even.
Even if you play just a shove strat off 22.5% then QJo only makes .08bbs.
It seems like you were splitting your ranges but then still shoving the bottom end of it, as with the 22 hand at the start of the video.
The format is good and there aren't many live videos posted any more so I would like to see more of these.
Thanks
P.s sorry for the size of the image, it has 22,A2s,QJo,9xs as -EV and KJo as breakeven when we r/c TT+,AQs+,AKo.

Has the great BrickandCrai returned? I see him sitting pretty on the second row.
If not I would see if Pads is interested, I believe he has made training videos before.

He mixed up the suits.

Great stuff mate. Hand #1, how important do you think our blockers are in this spot given that villain is a fun player? I think the play is really good vs. a reg but in this spot against someone who doesn't think or care about ranges and likely has a really strong hand, I think it's questionable. He still has 8 combos of AQ,KQ and then isn't the rest of his range basically straights+. I am not sure how often this will work against a fun player in a $500 satty.

Hand #4, That is a really sick bluff, a very, very nice play. I felt like his river range was exactly 99 and T9hh and unlikely any KQ. I think he bets flop with minimum 8 combos of his KQ, KQdd and then KQ bdfd. I think he then raises turn with any KQ he has on the 4 straight double flush draw.
So if you felt his range was just 4 combos of boats, will you still pull the trigger on this? I think it's ambitious but a really great play nonetheless.

Really appreciate the video, you definitely got me thinking.

Can you talk a bit about why you like to CB 100% here. Why don't you have a checking range? Don't you think our range is easier to play on rivers if we check back some hands?
I know we have range advantage, a strong one even if you dial back his defence range to 50%.
It just seems like we have a portion of hands that play well as a check.
Namely QQ-TT and some Kx. The QQ-TT block his floats and they don't need protection. It's a pretty easy board to play IP. Add some Ax, medium Kings and a couple of flush draws, maybe a nut trap or two.
I personally do a good amount of checking on this flop so I am interested for your thoughts.
The PPs under the King in particular, we can't categorize as value bets and they aren't bluffs or protection bets. They occasionally get called by 8x or a FD but they have no equity when we run into the decent pair part of his range.
Thanks

Hope this isn't a spoiler.

Any word if us mere Peasants are allowed to buy hoodies please?

I agree that it is a fold on the river. I think bluff-catching non-Diamond rivers is good, but I think to call with the 9 high flush there you would need some kind of read that Villain barrels off with no equity hands.I don't really see many regs just triple off with a Black JT here. Most will stab flop once with a hand like that and then give up, and barrel off with hands containing a high Diamond.

Yea, would also like to see hoodies added to the store.

Hey Stevie, 8:10 top middle the KK hand. Isn't that shove on the river a bit thin? It seems like his river range is 8x, missed flush draws and flopped sets. I am not sure he is calling too often with worse but I could be wrong. Also do you think the 1 card straight matters at all on the river seeing as neither of you will get to the river with many 5x hands. Thanks

This was excellent guys. Thanks very much.

Hi there. The pro listing page.

Any word on whether or not this retrievable? I have basically had over 18 months of my viewing history deleted, which I am not best pleased about.

I believe it's the £215 2x chance.

It seems like all my video likes(hearts) have been deleted guys or at least I can't see them. What's the dilly with that? Pretty annoying as I don't remember where I was up to with certain series. I have tries Chrome and IE. Cheers for any advice.

What do you make of Lasagna's play on the button with A6o? It looks quite poor given his hand, small sizing, bad ICM spot, vs Sauce etc,etc.

Are you trying to get demoted?

You did not finish the real estate ramble that you started in game, big man, that sounded interesting. It was a table space thing!

I feel your pain big fella. All the dudes you mentioned are fantastic vid makers, I am deffo missing them too. I think we have have been getting some very good content from Greenwood and Chidwick tho, so it's not all doom and gloom.

@47 mins - I think your analysis is way off here. Villain is a good reg so folding KQo is criminal in that spot. He is likely shoving all Kx suited and a number off off-suit ones we dominate as well as a bunch of Qx. So for you to say his range is Ax and PP's, i'm not sure how you came to that conclusion. Calling here if we assume Villain is shoving Nash nets us +3.5bbs which is significantly better than the break even call that you claimed it was.

It seems to me you just folded because you didn't want to call off X amount of chips which isn't a good way to approach that spot. A +3.5bb edge in a tough field is and edge we cannot pass up.

Enjoyed this format.

Fine for me big guy.

I miss Fedor too, but I feel like we need to be really patient with the likes of Fedor and Jakoon because they're content is so good. That sick bastard BRICKANDCRAI has put out some of the best MTT on the site so let's be patient with him and let him return in his on time please, ty ty.

It seems around 15-20 mins shorter than normal.

The vid cuts out abruptly guys.