meritocracy

If I am reading the stacks right, villain is jamming into effective stacks of roughly 6bb, 9bb, 7bb.

Assuming villain is a competent regular, there are several fundamental errors in your assessment.

1) Baseline range.

Lets look at the 20% range you assigned. I think a more accurate 20% is 22+, A9o+,A5s+,KJo+,K8s+,QJo+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s. This isn't to say he doesn't shove KTo/QTo etc. But rather if you theoretically could only choose 20% to shove then this is the more optimal 20%.

2) Baseline range, adjusted.

Like you mentioned, most players would induce with the top their range here, especially if villain doesn't recognize any of the players behind him as regs.

A reasonable assumption would be TT+,AK taken off the 20% for starters.

But his induce range could be high as 77+,AT+ depending on how villain perceives players behind. The weaker he thinks the players are behind him, the more he induces. The stronger he thinks the players are behind him, the more he shoves the top of his range to balance (since opening into those stacks is rather obvious and begins to risk losing value).

3) Actual range.

So now we have established the baseline 20%, minus the top 3.5% (TT+,AK).

However, assuming player is a competent regular, his range is very reasonably much wider.

A very standard range here would be:
22+,A2+,K7s+,KTo+,Q7s+,QTo+,J7s+,JTo,T7s+,97s+,87s,76s
*without top 3.5% ofc

But a stronger shover would be closer to this:
22+,A2+,K4s+,K9o+,Q7s+,Q9o+,J7s+,J9o+,T7s+,T9o,96s+,85s+,75s+,65s

Add an extra 5-10% if villain is a laggy/high PFR reg.

4) BB overcall range

You have BB overcalling 31%. BB is never overcalling 31%. This should skew the result quite a bit.

A better overcalling range would be 77+,AJo+,ATs+.

A word of caution: you might've just missed the BB overcall error, but maybe you didn't. In which case this highlights a problem with EV calculators. They are fantastic tools, but only when used correctly. Until you get a really good feel for ranges, you have to be super careful about how you interpret the results and even more so about taking such results and applying changes to your game.

And this is just a cEV calculation. ICM calculations are much much more complex (range sensitive).


Cliffs: easy call.

Hope this helps.

Looking at it again, AQhh makes a ton of sense too.

But yea, I wouldn't beat myself up over the call. This is just one of those spots where experience will come really handy. Learned the hard way myself calling in these same spots.

I think the key takeaway is the 4x preflop. Once he 4x's, you just gotta ask yourself do worse Kx really shove turn? Run down the list: well KJ got there, KT doubtful but maybe, K9....Once you get to K9 it becomes pretty apparent there is very little worse Kx in his range, if at all.

So work out the hand logically in your head. We have to assume this is for value X% of time. But if this is a draw enough times, then our wins will cover our losses = +EV.

But of course since we're just completely guessing as to the frequency the turn shove is a flush draw, the price of 14k to find out is simply too much. But like I mentioned earlier, if the price was say 8k/9k, then I can live with a guessy decision. Not only are you getting better odds, but flush draws are also more likely to take an overbet line for 8k/9k. 

Here is how I would personally break down this hand:

Assuming no reads/random, I would narrow his turn shove to flush draw or AK/KJ, maybe KQ. I think worse Kx for starters wouldn't 4x but rather limped or 2x/3x. Furthermore worse Kx usually doesn't shove turn but rather fires another standard bet (with the top of his Kx range) or check calls (with his Krag range). But the point is, I don't many worse Kx are in his range at all. Maybe KT is the worst hand he 4x's.

I think random 4x's are usually Ax/pairs. Gun to my head and I had to choose the hand he is holding, I would say AK.

From my experience when a random makes a gigantic overbet, its usually for value majority of time sometimes a draw. If I had to quantify it, maybe 70/30 respectively.

But with that said, it is BVB. If there is a spot where people will get out line, its BVB. So given the general dynamics of BvB spots in general, I would certainly think seriously about calling. In most other situations, say MP vs HJ, I would fold without much thought. 

Personally I would fold. We're crushed too often and we just have no idea how often this is an Ax flushdraw. The combination of being crushed too often, uncertainty of flush draw frequencies, and the size of the risk at hand makes this a fold for me.

But if the overbet was smaller, say slightly over pot (8k/9k), I wouldn't mind just sticking it in. Matter of fact, I would be more inclined to call a regular here. Simply because I just don't believe a reg would play hands that crush us (AK/KJ/2pair/sets) this way.