korn1337

The game evolved a lot I would say nowadays the micros are for sure tougher than nl100 in 2007.

how can BB OOP openraise and SB IP 3bet :P

yeah, how do you calculate it + shortcuts?

basically how do I calculate raise pot 60% (size)
at the table + shortcuts

yeah was also estimating ~6-8bb/100

any estimations?

Your behind AQhh, AJhh, AThh, QJhh, QTs25%, JThh (6) JJ (3), KK (3)
12 combos

You win against AK (12), AA (6)
18 combos

you get 2.6 to 1 on the river
So you need to be good 27% of times
If villain bluffs or bets more than 4.6 combos weaker hands, it's a call for you.

Even if we give him 0% bluffs, if villain has AK or AA more than 26% of times in this line it's a call.

So yeah, if you know your population good and they never bluff and never valuebet AK/AA like that it's a fold. If your not sure about this assumption it's a pretty clear call.

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fold pre. people have around 4-7% 3bet in that spot (at nl10 i guess more on the tighter side) and the rake is too high to make it a profitable defend.

We can/should bet range on that Flop.

If using a polarized approach as you did,
Checking back KK is fine, the Turn is a bad card for your current holding, and checking this Board on Flop and Turn is fine, cause 3betpot ranges on this board connect too well and you won't get called often enough by weaker hands on the Turn in a population were people don't defend enough. If villain is x/r you on the turn it's def. a fold. People don't show up with enough bluffs on a board which favors Hero's range so much.

Even if some opponents are very bad and let's say we give them on average a bad valueshove with weaker hands than FH, let's say 33% nutflushes and 33% of times a hand like AQo, it would still not be enough bluffs. (less than 10 bluffcombos)

You need a reasonable samplesize of all the 4 players behind you to make such huge deviations. Which also means your opening yourself up for huge counter exploits, because your basically pointing fingers at their mistakes, which is not a good approach in terms of exploiting in poker in general.

It's similar to a Rock/Paper/Scissor game

Your opponents throw Rock 40% (instead 33% GTO) of times, and you start throwing Paper for 10 rounds straight. Even a guy with bad mathematical understanding will figure out what your doing, cause you point your finger at his bad strategy.

Instead of throwing Paper 40% of times, less explo strategy but more EV longterm cause not detectable by a weak opponent.

It's a big explo move, but folding this hand would be correct. People don't bluff such Rivers at micro/lowstakes enough. People at these stakes don't even turn a hand like Tx9h into a bluff on the river.

21 combos have you beat
villain used a very big river sizing, he needs to bluff 16.6 combos in order to hit GTO frequency. He needs to bluff more than 16.6 combos for you to make a +EV call, which will on average not happen in such a spot.

I just wrote this under a similar post today it fits here also:

First of all you need to differ the stealing positions CO/BTN/SB

in these positions you can have elastic opening ranges, how much you deviate depends on the sample of hands you have of your opponents and how inelastic they are in their response.

here is a quote of a Top10 6max player in the world about this topic:

“Start to make explo adjustments on BTN/SB/BB villains by your openraise strategy CO (and of course the same for BTN, SB). For example I would explo openraise on the CO 30% vs weak passive players behind and openraise 50% on the BTN. We never want to go overboard with these kind of adjustments and I would never openraise more than 50% on the BTN. We also have to take into account the colliding ranges on the Flop if we explo openraise wider. Which means we will be playing with a wider range on the Flop against a tighter range than average, we already exploited our opponent preflop, so we have to cbet less in this spot to keep our preflop exploit profitable.”

So basically we are almost inelastic in MP

easy call against such an opponent postflop.

J6s in MP is ridiculous wide open, even if people just 3bet 2%-4% range.

You try to exploit by opening wider and you reached a point that you just gonna exploit yourself.

You will never be able to push these type of hands into profit, especially having rake higher than 5bb/100.

First of all you need to differ the stealing positions CO/BTN/SB

in these positions you can have elastic opening ranges, how much you deviate depends on the sample of hands you have of your opponents and how inelastic they are in their response.

here is a quote of a Top10 6max player in the world about this topic:

“Start to make explo adjustments on BTN/SB/BB villains by your openraise strategy CO (and of course the same for BTN, SB). For example I would explo openraise on the CO 30% vs weak passive players behind and openraise 50% on the BTN. We never want to go overboard with these kind of adjustments and I would never openraise more than 50% on the BTN. We also have to take into account the colliding ranges on the Flop if we explo openraise wider. Which means we will be playing with a wider range on the Flop against a tighter range than average, we already exploited our opponent preflop, so we have to cbet less in this spot to keep our preflop exploit profitable.”

Q1. If you trying to beat tough games, no matter if live or online, you need a strong theoretical approach to the game. You need to know how GTO is played and use it as your baseline.

Even if you are deviating from GTO a lot in your actual games by exploiting, you need to understand GTO in order to make good exploits.

Q2. Become obsessed with poker, create a studygroup and surround yourself with other people that share the same goal as you. Get a lot of different inputs of how worldclass players approach the game etc.

Grind/Learn/Eat/Sleep repeat for quite some time, and build up a stronger wall of wisdom about the game brick by brick. Be prepared of setbacks and don't become lazy.

yeah, sizings are weird. But it's hard to get into a RECs head without any info. Could be a KTs being scared of better Kx, could also be a AJdd trying to realize Rivers cheap, you never know. By feeling I would say the 2nd option, but feeling can be costly if you relate too much on it.

You can calculate even by 1-alpha, should be enough!
what I mean is:

your range is so strong on this board, that you don't have to make hero calls. Even defending 1-alpha is K+ which is defending very wide.

Turn you must bet bigger, you have more than 30 combos nutequity advantage, every Turn card that is lower than a Q is very good for you and is increasing your range/nut equity advantage, since you can basically Cbet the Flop merged (full range) for a half pot sizing.

Quit playing on PS if your winrate is less than 3-4bb/100. The rake is too much for this nitty environment.

Or play normal tables and invest some energy into table selection

If you have a good grasp on the field your playing in you can make the decision on the river if they show up often enough with weaker or bluff enough.

Raising the Flop would be a pretty big mistake, given the amount of straight combos possible and our holding even unblocking them.

"About limping haven't put so much studies. Probably raising is still better vs weak guy?"

raise/fold strat is better against overfolding/passive players or very high rake, as soon as they become aggressive and reasonable wide, limp/raise/fold strat is superior

1) 60% fold is fine, especially if you play nl400 or less cause of the rake. Use pokersnowie 3bet defends if you play nl100 or nl200, if you can't get GTO ranges which consider your rake environment.

2) Looks good, maybe just bluff 75% of AQo, you have a bit too much 4betbluffs.

3) Minimal more folds, most important will always be which range you are facing as long as the size your facing stays between 7bb-10bb

4) In general if we face a linear 3bet range we want to 4bet more and call less, if we face a polarized 3bet range we want to 4bet less and call more. If you think about it, it will be logic.

It would help, if you share your limit/rake and your "unopened PFR stats" for UTG and MP.

Even if mixed frequ. I'm sure it's too wide.

In rare cases it's ok to explo steal wide against villains which are overfolding hard and are incapable of adapting. But in this case opp aggro weak player 34/24 3bet 10% over 50 hands. it's a very clear fold. And I would stick to a GTO preflop strategy. Limp/Raise strat there is best, weak villains/regs make more mistakes against it.

I don't like the sizing you chose on the Flop. You can bet merged with range for small sizing or polarized (having a checking range)

You picked a polarized approach, so you want to use a bigger sizing. Cause your range is very strong on this board so in order to let your opponent realize turns for free with your checking range you have to go bigger with your actual betting range otherwise you don't achieve much and it would've been better to stick to a merged sizing in the first place.

"Turn I don't want make huge overbets because likely he has more nutted hands than normal"

I don't know what you mean... If you think hes not 3betting pre enough + not raising enough on the Flop vs your cbet and is kind of uncapped on the Turn then just tighten up your valuebetting range. So if this is your argument, then it has nothing to do with the sizing, just with the fact that you have to change your range construction, which means valuebet tighter.

This Turn is very good for overbetting 130%-150% Pot. Your sizing is ok, I think the bigger sizing has more EV though (you can check with Pio).

"Way too exploitable to fold. Very easy call and assess river."

This statement is wrong.

Villain is a recreational 21/11 3b-4% over 150 hands sample. Which means hes never gonna exploit. Villain is deviating hard from GTO. He is way to passive (villain has 11% pfr and is struggling to 3bet TT and AQ preflop), which means villain will most likely call draws on the Turn and won't have a equilibrated Turn raising range, which means his raising range is most likely capped towards value, so no shame in overfolding.

Villain will never show up with enough bluffs in order for us to think about defending correct ranges, cause hes the type of player which just wants to have top of his range in order to build a pot and show aggression.

"The result from the node-locking I did was that villain has to have zero bluffs (even no straight flush draws) to make it a fold."

Calling this hand on the Turn and folding it on the river vs a REC is a pretty bad choice. We need around 20% equity to make the Turn call. I don't think we have 20% equity against such a weak opponent.

Cause OP wrote that the guy is a recreational player and recs normally don't take such blocker effects into consideration.

T7o is never a openraise in SB. It's more than 60% range which is even too much if you do it exploitatively.

It's like pointing fingers at somebodies mistakes and opens doors for huge counter exploits. He can basically start 3betting 30% range against you.

Like you said Flop and Turn it's a fold. If you want to exploit so hard then you have to call the river also, since it's the best runout you could get. I would only make such explo deviations if I have a clear picture of my opponents gameplan. He must overbluff hard in order to justify the Flop and Turn call.

You already mentioned your blocker effects are pretty bad for hero calling. And weak players don't bluff enough. You get 2.5 to 1 , need to be good 28% of times which you probably are not, he has 25 combos valuebets so he needs to bluff more than 10 combos here to make it a call.