John Nelson

I like a turn bet here.  The A is a card that you are going to use to fire at when you have air, you keep control while your OOP and you get value from his draws.  There is a good chance he isnt folding a J either at this point.  Given the check through I like betting the river for the reasons given above.

I dont remember if you mentioned this either, but this was the main thought that I had.  This analysis is in depth and helps us remember that not every river decision is as clear cut as it may seem.  This analysis though assumes that he is betting this size with his entire range and I am not sure this is the case. I know you showed us 2 hands at the beginning of the video to help us get a better feel for this player, but both of those hands only dealt with pf play and does not necessarily tell us how he is going to play hands post flop.  How aggressive was he being post flop in this tournament? 

I think a river c/r on the A3o wheel hand is a good idea, bc he pretty much never has a full house given that he checked back the flop.  I would imagine that he bets any 2p, set or 77 on this flop.  I dont think it is the best option against this opponent though.  Even though he has Laggy stats he appears to be more of the aggressive pf and not as much post flop given the AQs hand at the begining of the video.  I think betting small is the 2nd best option though, for the reasons already stated.  You get value from a wide range and could induce the bluff.  I think I like betting 3800ish though best.  It looks like a bluff, given the line that you took on the flop and turn and he has enough chips in his stack that he could prolly talk himself into it, bc that size does not kill his stack if he is wrong.  I think there is a good chance that he will hero call with a 7 or maybe worse on this river.

What about over jamming the river on the T8 hand since we didnt raise the turn?  Like you said we dont have many bluffs and not that many hands that we would be doing this with for value.  One pair type hands are going to check back most of the time so we dont have them in our range if we overjam.

The Ah5h hand in the begining of the video I also like a lead on the turn for like 1400ish, bc I think that sonic is prolly checking back a decent amount.  As played though I think a c/jam is better than a c/r small. The pot is around 6200 when it comes back to you and you have just under 8900 left.  

I like the 175/call best.  I think he has a decently wide range on the river. I think this gets the most value from his bluff catchers and draws that he is going to turn into a bluff.  I dont think he has much better here often, bc I think he would have played flop or turn faster.  Only hands I see him shoving river for value that we lose to is KT and TT

I think for MTT's HUD's do have a role but only as the first line of defense. I think their role is only to help one gain a general idea of the type of oppoent you are playing against. Like others have already stated above, there are too many different stages in mtts to ever rely on stats completely. That is where notes come in for me. Ill make notes on a players tendencies and then make sure to say what stage of the mtt we are currently in.