kingofnaps
5 points
Bump!!! This is a fundamental theory question!
I really hope someone can help me on this matter. You know, like once solvers came out everyone started mixing the actions of OOP river check and probing river for 1/4 pot with like 90% of their 3rd pairs and like 50% of their 4th pairs you know? And when you look in a solver there's always like twice as many hands that call you that beat you than hands that you get value from. So like we probe $10 and lose vs 70% of the calling range but win vs 30% so we're losing 40% of our bet so our probe is literally losing, and huge at that, in isolation. It's literally losing $4 vs the calling range. And that's not even factoring in the high frequency at which villain raises our small probe and we have a -ev or 0ev call so we fold so we lose our probe bet vs that.
So what's the actual theoretical logic behind what's happening?
In what way are we gaining enough by probing small OOP with these terrible hands enough to gain back what we're losing vs the raising and calling ranges of IP?
Thanks so much in advance everyone!
Oct. 17, 2024 | 4:33 p.m.
Thank you Brokenstars!
Oct. 17, 2024 | 4:26 p.m.
Thanks so much for the detailed explanations!!!
Oct. 17, 2024 | 4:26 p.m.
Hello, I really hope you can help me because this is fundamental. The question I have is regarding what is in this GTO Wizard blog post https://blog.gtowizard.com/does-your-range-affect-your-strategy/
They say that if you're playing against a GTO bot that doesn't adjust, it literally doesn't matter if you take all mixed actions with 100% frequency. The EV is the same for both players. Well how can that be? What if i'm defending MDF on river to not be exploited by the GTO bot's balanced strategy, but then I just decide to call 100% of all mixed frequency bluffcatchers. Like if the GTO bot bet pot, now I have to defend 50% of my range.... but if I just start clicking call because "I'm indifferent and he won't adjust", now my calling frequency will go up from 50% to like let's say 65%, and now all of the sudden the GTO bot that didn't adjust his strategy is printing money vs me, no? GTO Wizard's blog says this is not the case at all, that the GTO fixed strategy wouldn't gain a single thing. How could it possibly not gain when now I'm making way more 0EV calldowns but actually what that means is that the GTO bot is printing and extracting huge EV from me with its range because while now the bot's bluffs aren't working often enough, it's value hands are printing huge and overall the bot will have more EV. ???
Or also the article says if I'm betting perfectly polarized for pot, and I have 6 value combos and 6 potential bluff combos, that if I bet all 6 of my bluff combos instead of the 3 of them to make the GTO bot indifferent, that both of us will have the same EV? I don't understand at all! Yes my bluffs will be breaking even if the bot just keeps clicking fold 50% of the time vs my pot size and doesn't adjust, but the 50% of the time it's calling it is NOT having a 0EV call! it is getting back 50% of the pot when it only needs to get back 33% ! So if the bot is clearly winning EV from me even, profiting huge even without adjusting, then how am I NOT losing EV? I don't get it. In the article it says if the pot is $10 and stack is $10, and I bluff all 6 of my combos for pot, the EV's are the same as if I bluff only 3 of my combos for pot size. I don't understand how no one is losing or gaining money if I always bluff, when the bot is clearly gaining the $10 pot and my $10 shove the 50% of the times it's calling, so it's gaining $20 * 0.5 so it's taking $10 of the pot. But if I play balanced 6 value and 3 bluffs, now the bot is gaining the $20 pot 1/3 of the time, and losing $10 to my shove 2/3 of the time, which equates to the GTO bot gaining $0 from the pot. It just doesn't make any sense to me how GTO Wizard's blog says nobody won or gained EV if I always bluff and the bot doesn't adjust, when clearly if I play balanced the bot gains $0 by defending 50% of the time vs my pot bet, but if I always bluff the bot gains $10 by doing the same thing and not adjusting.
Thank you!
Oct. 11, 2024 | 4:55 p.m.
Thanks so much for the responses Brokenstars!!! I really appreciate you guys helping me!
Oct. 5, 2024 | 12:54 a.m.
Yeah I could get solid samples on SOME of my opponents. I can't get tens or hundreds of thousands of hands or even a single 10k hands on everyone though. Or what if I'm playing HU and the guy is 4betting let's say 30% over like 500 hands. I literally would have no idea what that means because I have no idea what the optimal total 4bet % is either for 6max or for HU. It's even more important in HU I guess because I'm playing the same guy alone every hand and any poor adjustment I make will be greatly exacerbated in terms of my winrate relative to in 6max, so if the guy is 4betting 30% and I'm now randomly going to give an example number let's say if his 4bet is supposed to be 20%, well now I know there's a good chance he's overdoing it and I need to be 5bet shoving lighter for value and with more bluffs. Or if he's 4betting 10% then I'm just going to have no idea that that would mean he's way underdoing it and now I'll just be punting stacks every single hand when I keep 5bet bluff shoving.
On the other hand maybe an out of line total 4bet stat over a small sample would be more reliable in a 6max game because there are much fewer opportunities to 4bet so now we have much higher confidence in the accuracy of villain's 4bet stat being too high despite it being a small sample. maybe that's how it works?
If you're willing to share optimal 4bet %'s by position for 6max I'd certainly be grateful for your help, but also if you happen to know it I would really like to know the optimal total 4bet % HU too! I love heads up! Even though it's not really available anywhere anymore ;(
Also do you happen to know the optimal stats for the following : HU 3bet (back in the day people were saying 20% but over the past 10 years I've heard 25% many times)
and 6max total flop x/raise ? and HU total flop x/raise?
Or should I make a new thread about those 3bet and x/raise stats so other people can find it? Or maybe I can change the title of this thread itself to include these other ones, though I'm not sure if it will allow me to change the title of the thread.
Thanks!
Oct. 4, 2024 | 4:27 p.m.
The question is in the title. Why does solver constantly valueprobe 1/4 pot sized bet with less than 50% equity vs the calling range? I remember this being in Matthew Janda's book Applications of No Limit Holdem but I can't remember what it said. It was something about probing 1/4 and the EV we take away from his would-be bluffs had we checked, in combination with our equity when called though it's less than 50%, makes the small probe better than check/calling, check/calling being 0EV because we call our bluffcatcher vs the opponent's balanced range. Janda showed some math for this and it made sense to me at the time but that was a decade ago and I can't remember the math for it nor can I figure it out conceptually for myself. I don't understand his bluffs having EV when part of a balanced stabbing range if we check our marginal hands instead of probing them for 1/4 pot. I don't understand how a bluff in a GTO range can have EV when we're responding with GTO.
I really hope someone can answer this for me. I think it's really interesting and I'm certainly misplaying those spots because I refuse to just blindly stab 1/4 with all kinds of 3rd and 4th pairs and stuff when we are clearly getting wrecked by the calling range, even though the solver says that's what I should do. I would like to know the theory behind it so I understand how it works and then I can actually have a reason to start making those kinds of weird value block bets with trash.
Thank you!
Oct. 3, 2024 | 8:30 p.m.
Thank you so much for the optimal 4bet % !!!! Is this 13-15% total 4bet for 6max games? And do you know what it would be for a HU game?
As far as the 4b+ stat in pt4 I'm honestly not really sure how to change it so that in the popup stats window it gives me the regular total 4bet % stat, so I was also wondering if anyone had an optimal % range for that stat too.
Oct. 3, 2024 | 3:50 p.m.
But then I'd only be able to look at my stats right? Because I couldn't get large enough samples unless i have like 100k hands on each opponent to know what their 4b is by position?
Can you please tell me the 4b% numbers ? by position and also total % ? Like how a 6max 3bet is supposed to be 10-12% and HU it's supposed to be I think it was 20%? And knowing the total % number, if somebody's way out of line I can pick up on that immediately.
Thanks
Oct. 2, 2024 | 11:47 p.m.
Hello, it has been a long time, can anyone please answer this question for me? What's a gto-ish reg stat for 4bet percentage in pokertracker4 for 6max games, and how much for HU games?
Thank you!
Oct. 2, 2024 | 5:26 p.m.
What's pokertracker4's 4b+ after raising stat supposed to be in gto? What's a good number for it in theory? I have so many people whose stat is 20+ percent after 1 or 2k hands and mine is only 12% over 25k hands and I feel like I'm 4betting quite a bit, not all the time but quite a bit.
Thanks
Hello, thanks for responding to my thread! I have not had any free time these days and that is why my response is very delayed.
I only have the 1 free spot per day from GTO wizard and will try to find one. It may take me a while though, but as soon as I find one I will post a reply in here! Thanks for your time!
Oct. 24, 2024 | 3:25 p.m.