kilphil1975
2 points
These are the tricky spots, with the two shorter stacks you set yourself up to be icm raped by biggest fish. You need really strong reads in this spot to ship AT imo, since with his stack and perceived image you dont have a lot of FE. He can call and lose and still be chipleader so I doubt youll make him fold a lot of better hands than AT.
I like a flat more with AT here, given ICM factors I guess the hands we could get it in with profitable is QQ+. So the ship with AT could only be somewhat ok if we expect a large pct of folds from him.
Flatting pre and playing a pot in position would have my preference , since AT prob has a lot of value, but by 3b in this spot, weget 4b soooo many times by a competent reg like this, we almost turn it into a bluff, since we cant really call of or GIT imo.
So fold is $EV wise best, it sucks though when someone is hammering the table like this and there isnt much we can do about it.
Dec. 20, 2013 | 9:13 a.m.
Full Tilt, 8,000/16,000 blinds, 2,000 ante No Limit Hold'em Tournamen
MP1: 366,481 (22.9 bb)MP2: 415,024 (25.9 bb)[b]Hero (MP3): 360,954 (22.6 bb)[/b]CO: 164,835 (10.3 bb)BTN: 278,023 (17.4 bb)SB: 640,173 (40 bb)BB: 210,850 (13.2 bb)UTG+1: 881,675 (55.1 bb)[b]UTG+2: 989,985 (61.9 bb)
Preflop[/b]: Hero is MP3 with T:spade: T:diamond
UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to 32,000, 2 folds, [color="red"]Hero ????
Massive ICM implecations here.
Opener has been running over at final table and has opened on FT at nearly every oppurtunity.
So I decide to ship to protect my equity and he wont do anything crazy with QJ,KJ,AJ as I really dont want a race and would just like to pick up the money preflop
However if I get called it will be a minimal % of the time, but I am going to be in bad shape.
Fold seems too weak, flat is bad given stacksizes since he is going to barrel ATc and I wont know where I am at unless the unlikely event I flop a T. And I have no room to manouvre.
Would aprreciate any thoughts; whats the minimum range to 3b shove here? And is someone folding TT here?
If he is bluffing that is a bluff with big cohones into two people one of which raised from UTG and the other flatted the cbet. My feeling is that this is not often a bluff line, but more often a line for value in which case you have to wonder when he donkbets pretty big into 2 people on the turn what is he betting for value and is AQ ever still good ? My feeling is no so I lean towards a fold there especially with the other guy still to act.
However if you feel that your AQ is still good on the turn I think you must call river as well. Ak will 3b squeeze pre a lot, sure he might flat some pct of the time, but I think AK might raise flop in stead of c/c and then lead. So in my opinion is that the K doesnt hit his range much at all and doesnt change enough to warrant a fold now.
What it comes down to is the feeling how likely he is to be bluffing with air or a FD maybe in this situation if you think that is a good pct of the time I would call both turn and river. If not I think a fold on turn is best.
Jan. 25, 2014 | 12:38 a.m.