keepswimmin

Yea I would definitely lean towards just calling. By raising on the flop you allow him to fold out all his air and continue with his value. Also if hypothetically you had AA with the Ah it isn't that great. You want him to have a hand like Ax of hearts that he is barreling flop with.

If you want a raising range on the flop. I'd lean towards flush draws and sets while calling with my overpairs/ two pair, although two pair in your spot seems a little less likely. Seems more balanced strategy imo.

Thoughts anyone?

How does your range include 33's and 55's when you check both flop and turn? That's a very passive way to play sets on a very wet board. If he is a thinking player I doubt he'd include those in your range.

The likelihood of him having flush draw combos decreases, because you hold the A of clubs, but he could hold any Kx, Qx type hands with a club, because he is a LAG player. Any straight draw, and even 35, J5, etc.

It sounds like they were attacking based on the fact that you weren't playing your A game bud. Your best bet would've been to leave. If the game is no longer good for don't give the vils anymore $.

@Wiz I think the issue you're having is your thinking in absolutes, so much so, that your limiting your opponents range to a single hand. I think that's not going to help you in the long run.

Q could bet the turn doesn't mean they have to. Maybe vil is checking back to see how the river changes things. i.e. flush completing

"he would raise our limp pre with all the hands that make fh combos"- Based on what exactly? You limped pre man more often than not people complete with the majority of their range including FDs

Again I just feel like the raise is a high variance play that won't pay off for you in the long run.

What would you do if he shoved? You'd fold...

Anyway best of luck.

Maybe 109, K9, assuming vil 3bets a lot out of SB, but that's it really. The rest of his value range, sets, QJs, some combos of AK, AT, A9 have you beat.

I have a tough time coming up with a random hand that vil just decided to lose it with.

I think it's a fold.

Not sure if it's a clear fold for the vil. Your hand is pretty disguised imo given your check on the flop. Plus, your hand from his perspective looked more like busted straights (68), flushes given you lead the turn, and inferior two pair (75, K7 maybe).

Great run out for you for sure lol

You should definitely bet turn, obv missing value. Plus the board is way too wet to allow a free card. You bet the turn you're bound to get one vil to chase with any straight or flush draws.

@Pokerlogical that's assuming this player likes to 5 bet. In terms of 5 betting in certain positions some players may not see the need to 5 bet every time they have JJ+ that's an exploitable play. Just because he's a random player doesn't mean that he/she may not want to flat AA-QQ with the idea of dodging a risky flop and getting it in with decent equity, which seems to the be case in my opinion.

As for the extended range I can see those hands being in his range, but I don't see KQ type hands raising all in. If by chance they're doing it with TT-88 your only improving 23%~ of the time.

Granted there are times when calling of AK is fine, but in this particular hand you don't have any added benefit of flush or straight draws

Given that he cold called you 4B probably not. You gotta give him a very conservative range of 10+, maybe even JJ+
Given that range he's actually favored to win 62%~ of the time when the flop hits he is favored 78%~ of the time.

After you CB and he raises it's a fold.

Blind v Blind can be tricky.
On the flop your bet is fine, his call indicates he could be continuing with any FD, Qx and Kx.
The turn is bad obv his possible straight got there. The check is good opt for pot control and you have show down value.
The river play is where I think you unravel. When you check raise the river, what's your reasoning? Based on your line you aren't repping much. You literally only have a pair type hand here and plan on getting him to fold FD when you have that beat with call?
You say the only hand you get called with is JT, I disagree any Jx hand calls, any Qx, Ax, maybe even Kx might call. Solely because the raise doesn't mean anything.
Look at it from the vils perspective, what hands are you raising for value here? Jx, JT and what would you hope to get called by in that scenario an Ace?
He jams over your raise, you'd have to cringe fold and if you called it'd be -EV
I'd much prefer you call in this situation, but even then it's not optimal. I think this is a clear check on the river.

This is awesome thanks for sharing!

Where do you get the 5.88% (Honest question)? Also I don't 4bet much myself, but if I did what could the range look like?

1. I think you can make it a little bigger 165/170ish
2. I'd opt for a check, based on what the guy likes to play it hits his range more than yours right? If he checks again on the turn I'd feel better about the hand and would bet. I don't see a cbet accomplishing much, because he seems like the type to call flop anyway.

@Tomasz K I disagree those hands can be in his range especially because he's in the CO coupled with the fact that he's aggressive I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility.

@JonsWongs is this a random opponent or do you always play with him? Usually 5bets do mean the goods .i.e KK, AA, but Vil could be sophisticated enough to 5bet with AK knowing that the likelyhood of you having AA or KK decreases. It'd be an interesting spot pre for sure and I'd probably fold. Anyway to send the hand privately? Would love to know lol

His Cbet was relatively small. Ever think of raising him on the flop to charge him in case he has draws? On the turn when he shoves I think it's a call although based on your description it sounds like roughly even money, he has a lot more combos of K9, 98, AK, any flush draw. If he has AA, KK, and 10s so be it

JonsWongs I think there's merit for 4betting maybe to about 1.95. By flatting you allow for the UTG1 and 2 to see the flop, which doesn't bode well for JJ. The flop is great for you. I think the check is too passive though, because depending on the run out you can get three streets. Your raise looks like your trying to buy the pot effectively turning your hand into a bluff. Chances are villains ranges are weighted towards middling pairs and overs. Very unlikely either has QQ+ or there would have been more action pre. Your only losing to 66's, 22's, 62, which are all unlikely. 4 of hearts does not change much really. BD FD are a possibility, but something I wouldn't be too alarmed about.