jtown1010
1 points
Nice post Sam. We all get those feelings Marko, and for me it's how I started understanding how to guess a range for my opponent intuitively before I really started to understand the math behind poker.
Your gut instinct is probably something you should listen to, but not at the expense of mathematically sound decisions.
It's important to trust your reads but it's also important to understand that we rarely have a complete grasp on what our opponents are capable of, you might think someone never bluffs a certain spot, but they may be competent enough to know that you know that, or just make a really bad bluff in a certain spot for whatever reason.
Your gut instinct is probably something you should listen to, but not at the expense of mathematically sound decisions.
It's important to trust your reads but it's also important to understand that we rarely have a complete grasp on what our opponents are capable of, you might think someone never bluffs a certain spot, but they may be competent enough to know that you know that, or just make a really bad bluff in a certain spot for whatever reason.
Dec. 11, 2012 | 8:19 p.m.
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jtown1010
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Is this where we talk about non-poker related stuff? (Such as sports gambling!)
My entire knowledge of croquet comes from the 80's movie "Heathers" starring Christian Slater. Assuming the writers of that movie did their research the best strategy is to get one of your balls right next to your opponents while it's your turn, then step on your own ball and hit it to smash your opponents ball into an undesirable location. Plus this puts them on tilt, but they might dare you to drink a bunch of household cleaning supplies after so make sure you don't do that.
Dec. 11, 2012 | 5:55 p.m.
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jtown1010
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Is this where we talk about non-poker related stuff? (Such as sports gambling!)
The Falcons have had plenty of positive variance so far this season. I would say their W/L record is a result of a weak schedule as much as positive variance though. They could have easily lost a few of the close games they've played recently, and against tougher competition they probably wouldn't have been in a position to play these games so close.
What makes this such a tough decision for me is the past playoff failures of the Falcons resulting in favorable gambling odds for me, but I'm lacking confidence in even really good odds because Atlanta has been so mediocre against fairly soft competition.
My only concern is burning too much money getting favorable odds when the Falcons could easily be a dog at home coming off a bye week in the playoffs. They might have to win 2 home games as a dog to make the super bowl, the NFC is just loaded this year.
What makes this such a tough decision for me is the past playoff failures of the Falcons resulting in favorable gambling odds for me, but I'm lacking confidence in even really good odds because Atlanta has been so mediocre against fairly soft competition.
My only concern is burning too much money getting favorable odds when the Falcons could easily be a dog at home coming off a bye week in the playoffs. They might have to win 2 home games as a dog to make the super bowl, the NFC is just loaded this year.
Dec. 8, 2012 | 3:59 a.m.
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jtown1010
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Is this where we talk about non-poker related stuff? (Such as sports gambling!)
I agree Falcons are probably a true 3-4 loss team with a balanced schedule in a perfect vacuum.
They have been extremely impressive at home for ~4 years, and that easy schedule gives them a great shot at home field advantage throughout the playoffs plus a first round bye.
I'm not looking for Vegas odds so much as profitable odds. I have plenty of Falcons hating friends that will give me action with no regard for the true value of the bet.
I'm just a poor judge here because I'm a total Falcons homer, and always wear the rose-colored glasses when it comes to them.
They have been extremely impressive at home for ~4 years, and that easy schedule gives them a great shot at home field advantage throughout the playoffs plus a first round bye.
I'm not looking for Vegas odds so much as profitable odds. I have plenty of Falcons hating friends that will give me action with no regard for the true value of the bet.
I'm just a poor judge here because I'm a total Falcons homer, and always wear the rose-colored glasses when it comes to them.
Dec. 8, 2012 | 1:51 a.m.
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jtown1010
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Is this where we talk about non-poker related stuff? (Such as sports gambling!)
Thanks Dan, I wasn't sure posting here was the right place, but I'm a huge Phil Galfond fan and want to support this website however I can, so I figured button clicking would be my best option (drive up the traffic!).
Dec. 8, 2012 | 12:56 a.m.
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jtown1010
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Is this where we talk about non-poker related stuff? (Such as sports gambling!)
Now that I think about it Damian, that Americans comment was pretty dumb because I've have some of the best NFL discussions recently with Europeans.
Please disregard the American part, any degens will do.
Please disregard the American part, any degens will do.
Dec. 7, 2012 | 5:39 p.m.
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jtown1010
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Chatter:
Is this where we talk about non-poker related stuff? (Such as sports gambling!)
Any American degens that want to talk sports, fantasy sports, or gambling on sports?
I can't play enough poker to satisfy my gambling interests, so I've turned into a full degen sports gambler. But I still love poker and have the most respect for the opinions and thoughts of poker players when it comes to these issues, so here I am.
My first question, Atlanta Falcons super bowl equity? What kind of price should I get if I want to burn money on a 3 time 1 and done playoff team?
I can't play enough poker to satisfy my gambling interests, so I've turned into a full degen sports gambler. But I still love poker and have the most respect for the opinions and thoughts of poker players when it comes to these issues, so here I am.
My first question, Atlanta Falcons super bowl equity? What kind of price should I get if I want to burn money on a 3 time 1 and done playoff team?
Dec. 7, 2012 | 4:52 p.m.
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Thousands of people living on their own for the first time in their lives, and all of them are ready to make bad decisions, it was one of the best times of my life for sure. I made a ton of good friends, there is more women in college than at any other point in your life, you can basically be a drunken idiot most of the time socially and it's normal.
I think you should at least give it some more time, maybe take a bit of a break from poker and just socialize a little more.
You can get some badass experiences traveling the world too so there may not be a huge difference here, but being normal college age and experiencing the college lifestyle is the only thing that's going away here.
You will always be able to travel the world and play poker in the future.
Dec. 11, 2012 | 10:25 p.m.