jonzocker

Agree with both of you, def. a mistake to jam here!

I think I'd probably shrug and call river given that we don't have a ton of hands that can bluffcatch after betting flop and checking the next two streets.

I doubt you have many bluffs that take a bet-check-bet line on this board so I think it's best to protect our river checking range which is tough to have a high frequency of as it is.

I agree with those arguments, thx a lot for helping me!

If we have just the one read: He 3bets wide frome the BU (I guess something around 9%+) I would not go for some crazy adjustments. Just play a solid/tight preflop range (around 20%-24%) and 4bet/push w JJ+/AK. If you want to bluff some hands use stuff like ATo/KJo but I would not bluff here a lot unless I get to know him.

Pre is a fold imo.

As played its def. taff. I think the J looks better than it really is. You do not have good equity vs his valuerange at all, given that he can have JJ-TT,AQs+,KQs,AQo+ and the Jack is def. a card where Villain is not bluffing too frequently because it hits your range pretty good.

Given those 2 points I like a fold unless we do not know more about him.

I call.

If Villain is somewhat solid he is not raising w QTs, he should not Cc this hand anyways. Than he cant have a lot of 9x that are worse than your hand since T9s has the boat and 98s are the only hands he could possibly Cc preflop, even if its more a 3bet or fold for me.

K2s is an easy fold preflop if you do not have some good arguments. But given that the BU 3bets a lot you should def. fold! If you get a 3bet you shouldnt 4bet the bottom of your oR-range and your adjustment is (imo) wrong, just oR tighter and exploit his wide 3bet range with a strong calling/4betting range.

As played I like your check on the flop. I am not shure about your bet on the turn, but I guess its ok. The problem is that Villain rarely calls a worse hand over 2 streets. Given that the question is how we get more money from his worse hands and loose less vs his better ones.

I guess his range could look like this:

JJ-99,AQs-AJs,KJs+,QJs,AQo,KQo

I think I like a bet on the turn and a check/decide on the river. I do not like the jam at all and I think if we check its more a fold than a call...

Vs a reg its a taff river, but vs a 31/19 coldcall 26% after 2k hands I would valuebet/fold around 6$-7$.

I guess its a fair range, and I gave him all Ax flushes and a lot of suited connectors. Sometimes he folds more on the river/ sometimes less. But imo more important is, that a bet/fold is (imo) way better than a check/call. As played I fold...

Vs most guys I call in this spot, but 10% (out of 100 opportunites) is quite a bit. I think calling is still fine, but if I decide to 4bet, I wouldnt jam. I guess Villain makes more mistakes if we do not jam, even if he should know that you are comitted...

I do agree, that Villains range is capped and he shouldnt have anything better than AQ too often.

Given that, I would choose a betsize where Villain would call his AJ/AT combos. Without knowing Villain I would bet around 1/2 Ps but vs some guys a Ps bet makes quite sense, because you cant rep much either and they can put you on a FD and bluffcatch to light...

With the information we have I think its an easy call on the flop and on most turns a calldown. If you have a big samplesize on him other stats can help you with the desicion.

How much is he x/r vs cbets?

How much is he raising vs cbets?

What hands is he raising?

And obv. have you hands of him, where he raised in a 3bet pot and got to SD? 

If you know for example, that he raised in a similar spot w 87s or Tc9c it gets pretty easy...

When I play vs a bad player very frequently notes/reades > stats

You have 1.4k hands on him and he plays 41/21 !!!

Even if you did not know what kind of hands Villain is donking with (in game) you should def. check out your database, before you post this type of hands. If you have those guys at your table, who are pretty bad and always come back, you want to know how to exploit them!

Beside that I think you missed some important stats:

Cc in SB: Some people are super tight when it comes to Cc from the SB and some play with a >30% range. It is a huge different if Villain has a 10% or 20% Cc-Range in this spot!

3bet: Is he able to Cc QQ+ preflop? Bad players like to slowplay those hands pre and just donk out or x/r their OPs on the flop.

F2 cbet: If he has a F2 cbet of 70% it is pretty reasonable that his donking range is strong. If he has a F2 cbet of 30% it is pretty reasonable that his donking range contains a lot of shit.

Donk/f-c-r: If he is donk/folding 60%+ calling is way more attractive than raising. If he is not folding to raises it would be horrible to call vs 30% donkingrange! Obv this stat will not be too meaningful becasue of samplesize, but its still super important

With the information we have I do not fold the river and I like the raise vs him, but again:

- what is he donking?

- how does he react to raises?

- how does he react to raises in generell (oR vs 3bets, cbets vs raises/ x-raises)

- did you saw him donk (f+t+r) with air?

My arguments for raising are:

- he is probable Cc a wide range pre (J9o stuff)

- donking a lot of shit/weak SD value/Jx which he will not fold

- we do not know if he really donks his bluffs over 3 streets, but we can assume, that he will not fold any Jack

- we get max value from his bad MH but loose value vs his bluffs

=> We need to kown what his donking range looks like ;)

In general, I don't like raising these kind of board textures.

Imo, we should not play our range/the board here at all! Figure out how to exploit him and do it.

Ok, I do think, that a x/r vs the fish is good, when you have some evidence that he is more like a maniac and likes to bluff/valuebet light. As you said freecards are not a problem, and if you want to x/r a hand here I think Ac9c is the best.

I would never x/r any sets/straights/twoP here without being very confident, that the CO/BU is betting if checked to. 

But as played you do not x/r the fish! The fish is very likely folding if you x/r the BU here. 

I am not shure if I like the call more than the raise, but it gets very taff, if the BU is pushing to your x/r. Vs a range of sets+ you just have 32.5% equity and Villain is probably not stacking of lighter then that.

I like a cbet much more than a x/r. You loose a lot of value vs the fish and the BU is probably not bluffing enough to justify a check. I do not like a x/r range at all on this flop, since you want to bet all your straights/sets/twoPair/OPs, would be interested in your thoughts about the flopplay.

Given that I would not get in this turnspot ever. I think we can discount some straights/sets, when he is not reraising/pushing on the flop. He can have

FDs: KcQc,KcJc,QcJc,KcTc,QcTc,JcTc

TPs: A9s,J9s,T9s,98s

TwoPair: 65s

Therefore the Td is pretty good for his range given that 50% of his FD made a TP and T9/98 improved:

Having said that I do check this turn. On the river he should bet all his busted draws and Tx (which did not bet the turn) and probably A9s. Without more informations about Villain you can probably go with both plays. Some guys do bet always w KcTc/QcTc/JcTc on the turn and some never, some are always checking KcQc,KcJc,QcJc on the turn, some are betting them...

Imo the key factor for the river decision is, what you think he is doing with XcTc and his FD on the turn.

Super Villain dependend

Did you saw any important hands at SD?

Given the information we have I call the river. Villain seems to be active and can have 76s/87s/86s in his range. I do not mind a fold either, without more information its imo taff to say one option is much better than the other one. Calling has obv. a higher variance and you should realize that you can run into KK+.

Hey

Given that he calls the push w QJo without a flushblocker the bluff can not be to great ;)

Vs a guy like this you should play very exploitively. 3bet him linear and just valuebet big with your nuts and smaller with thin value and do not bluff him.

Another thing:

You have > 9k hands from him right? Go through your hands in HM/PTR and check out some lines he played. bet (f) bet/call (t) check/call (t) for example, if he is not folding TP in those spots, then there is absolutly no reason to bluff...

like the preflop isolation 3bet. The flop could be a little bit bigger, but giben his stacksize and the board its not a big deal. The turn is an easy bet for me and a push on any rivercard. You are going to loose a lot of value by checking back here.

Thx for the work you put in this hand!

1. My range above is his flop check/calling range and NOT his turn check/raising range. I did not made an estimation about his check/rasingrange at all. Hope we misunderstood us there?


You give him AK combos,when you said he is aggressive! All of these are likely getting 4bet pre, along with QQ.

Next
you say villain has a low fold to 3bet: yet you dont give him any
suited connector combos, 89cc, and 78s are still in his range.

Agree with this points a lot!

My estimation of his range is 44-88, 98s, 78s, AcQc, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc, jcTc, AcQd, AcQs, AcJd, AcJs.

Giving your your hand Vs villains range 21.42% equity.

Ok you talking here about his check/rasing range right?

- Why do you just give him 2 combos of AQ/AJ and not 3 (because some x/r the flop?) ?

- Why do you not give him QcJc/Tc9c ?

- I am not shure about all 77/55/44 in his range, I do think that most guys check/raise them in generall on the flop. I think it is more realistic to give him around 1/3 of them. 

- I am not shure about all 98s combos. I would assume that he is check/rasing or check/folding them sometimes on the flop. 

- Not shure how you get 21.42% vs this range I have 13% (on the turn)

Conclusion:

When he check/call the flop his range should like this:

- 2 combos of AcQx and AcJx 

- AcQc, AcJc, KcJc, AcTc I do think that QcJc, JcTc, Tc9c, 9c8c should often check/raise the flop

-JJ-88

- 1/3 of his sets => 77

- 66

- 87s

- 1 combo of 98s => 9h8h

This is his flop check/calling range. Given that it should be even more clear that we have a checkback on the turn. As played I absolutely agree with the fold!

Ok thx

The program is called Equilap:

http://www.pokerstrategy.com/poker-tools/equilab-holdem/

What is the samplesize and what is his barrel frequency on the flop/turn/river?

Did you saw any hands from him at SD? Was he check/calling - rasing a bit as the preflop aggressor?

What do you think his preflop / flop / turn and riverange look like?

Given the information we have:

Preflop

A 16% 3bet Range looks probably like this:

66+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,ATo+,KJo+

Flop

Your hand missed this flop quite a bit and given that Villain is not betting everything and you are on the bottom of your range I do like fold.

Turn

The turn is obv. great. Villains broadway hands did not imrpove and given that you have the Ac makes it a lot less likely that he has a flush now (just 5 combos).

But still, vs a solid range of TP+ /A4s/A5s and Khigh FDs you have around 33% equity. On the river you are going to have a hard time to realize your equity:

- on every club you do not get a lot money from worse

- on any blank or even a T Villain is able to bluff you with worse

- on any Ace you still get in trouble as we see now

- Is Villain goining to check/fold his KQ on a blank, is he going to give up with A3s on a 9h?

River

Very interesting, if you ever want to make money by calling at this river, Villain has to bluffpush some Qx hands or "valuepush" A5s/A4s. His AK bluffs beat you now and the ONLY pure bluff Villain can have is KcJx ( 3 combos).

Ofc. I assumed that he is not going to barrel the turn with JTs/99 etc but I do think this is realistic.

Summary:

I do think that it goes on all postflopstreets  fold > call. I think you could rasie this flop sometimes but as we see, even a pretty good runout do not help you much and justify a call. On the turn it gets really taff. If he barrels a lot I like a push, you should have have a good amount of FE and obv. some clean outs. If he is not barreling a lot, I am not shure. A call really sucks if we do not hit our flush, or Villain is not checking the river. As played you have to fold the river without reads about his ranges!

He bets all streets pretty small, given that I do not see myself folding the river. I see bad players often 3barreling their weak SD value very small, so JTs etc. woulnt surprise me...

KTs (1combo) / AQ (12 combos :/ ) and some flushes got there, but he cann still have KQ/QQ/AJ given his betsize. And yes, I agree that raising the turn should better, given his 40% 2barrel.

I would like a smaller riverbet. After Villain chb the turn I do not assume that he is having a lot trips + in his range. I guess his most likey hand is a middPair w BDFD on the flop.

As played the shove really sucks, TT makes the most sense given his line, but AA/ATs could be possible too. I dont hate a fold, and given that I do not assume that he is valueshoving worse I think its good to let it go. A call cant be too terrible either, so I guess vs an unknown reg its not a big deal.