johnny118

q1 - he could bet JJ+, that d be a poor valuebet but i would expect that play from nl10'player, nothing else i can think of.
q2 - i would expect vilain to bluff all his Ax type hands here given the fact that you like never have. a 7 , problem is you have AA soyou are blocking too many combos. still, could kqs take a stab here? yeah, probably.
q3 - not surr what you are asking. do i call here with aa? yes. do i expect to

when villain checks the K, he represents 99-1010 and AJ. If he s got air, he will like always double barrel on that runout.

for that reason, bluffing the river make sense on your side.

the problem i have is the overbet here. it is so bluffy because you cant represent anything that it encourages hero calling.

it is a spot where i feel a smaller sizing would be better equity wise.

I'm curious as to why you think hero wants a check-raising range here. Not trying to be smart, just curious really.

I would have played the hand the exact same way.

A fold is out of the question OTR. You will see 1010-JJ here quite often, sometimes you will see AJ, AK, etc.

yes, you will often see AA and KK.

the board is relatively wet and villain seems on the loose side.

I see no reason to bet the flop with a straight draw here, especially considering the spade draw out there.

that said, if you do decide to bet the flop, it doesnt make sense to shut down on the turn because we expect to be called quite a lot on the flop cbet.

what vayne said is exactly how i would play this flop and turn with 100% or my range without any specific read on villain. (if villain is very aggro in 3bet pots and call a lot of 3bet oop, i might check some of my range OTF to induce)

I dont like to check back here because you tell villain that you have a SDV hand that want to get to the river cheap but will fold if pushed... think about it this way, what hand wouldnt want to cbet that flop IP in a 3bet pot? AQ comes to mind...

Even if villain knows what you are doing, there really is nothing he can do about it because of the range advantage and position.

Lastly, i think that a third barrel would be EV- by a large margin in that situation vs unknown.

When villain has like 1010-JJ on that texture, its gonna be hard to convince him to fold, especially if he thinks you r some kind of reg or have an high 3bet frequency.

villain's stats makes me think he's got a strong hand preflop, QQ+, when he checks the river, his range becomes almost exclusively KK.

Betting anywhere between 1\4 and 1\2 pot on the river to get a call is fine.

Without info, I would fold to a river jam, because as played it would look so weird and unusual, I would expect to split with AK or see a weird bluff most of the time.

I agree with above poster regarding the fact that checking the river is superior to betting it vs an agressive population that will certainly turn a part of their range into a bluff by the river and might want to value bet some weak Ax that decided to pot control.

Preflop, flop and turn all seems pretty standard to me

Something to think about though, i think it could be good to bet turn as well versus some villain that likes to float and hero call more then most, the reason being the A is such an obvious second barrel card here, an aware villain will certainly catch up on that - im still debating that though - like , sometimes you intentionnally polarize your range, even though u have a SDV hand, because you feel like villain will hero call with weaker bluffcatcher.

Anyway, just an idea I ve been toying with

I think you should either bet bet bet or check call all day here.

Check-raising is by far the worse play here because you force him to play better. Of course he ll sometime continue with a weaker jack or a draw, but his weaker holdings are gonna fold often resulting and less EV for you.

Either way, your never gonna be thrilled going allin by the river here with a bluff catcher.

I would not bet the turn here because you can't justify betting it for value vs most competent villain and you will be moved off your hand and wont make it to showdown often.

I would always bet flop for value here.

from my experience (NL25-NL50), when a player cbet 33% OTF, he has nothing and, when IP, i just always call it off and then bet the turn with my air if checked to, exactly as if the flop went check check and i was probing the turn.

When oop, I will obviously be forced to play more straightfowardly as i am not fond of floating oop, even against a weak range.

When you think about it, the incentive to be balanced in a huge player pool is weak and it wouldnt make sense to bet stronger holding like that appart from balancing, i.e when you have a hand, you loose so much EV when betting so small.

I find that check raising those bets on the flop dont yield a lot of fold equity as the cbettor will usually be happy to float at least one street IP and the population in general likes to fight more OTF then on any other streets.

I would size my 4bet bigger preflop, probably like 1.75$, because there is already quite a lot of money in the pot and I feel its gonna be easier to get a call. Plus, giving 3-1 pot odds to an opponend with KK preflop makes me uneasy.

I want to avoid playing KK 3 way or more too.

Am I mistaken ?

i agree that the fish is not representing a better hand than yours so i call here as well.

i dont think the size of his bet changes that. of course when your the bettor, making it like 5 time the pot is horrible odds wise, but when your the caller, your basically looking at a required equity of 50%, which you clearly have against his range.

as played, foldind is heartbreaking given the odds your getting, but it's probably a goof spot to hero fold because villain s got he nut like always when he shoves here.

you could have saved yourself from that awful spot by not raising the turn.

like you said, there arent that many T, one left actually, and villain cant have AA and QQ, so he is either A) bluffing or B) overplaying a smaller T, Qx or an Ax type hand or C) crushing you wih QT or AT.

by raising, you make him fold his bluffs and most hands that he can have, except the ones that are crushing you and JTs, T9s and maybe T8s.

way more money to be made by not raising the turn.

preflop, defending the 3 bet CO vs SB wih AQs w/o info is standard for me.

i dont like to raise the flop. i understand you want to charge draws but he already bet out and there aint many draws in his range and you have position.

the sizing of your raise now i really hate. you say you wanna chagr draws but you give villain golden odds to continue with draws. no sure what that raise really accomplish.

now, my goal in this situation would be to extract value from Ax, 99-TT-JJ-QQ and allow my opponent to bluff and semi bluff, while at the same time keeping the pot small and making my life easy by the river.

Calling flop and ch/call turn, bet if checked to or call river would be my preferred line here.

As played, the river is a tough one. is he bluffing a missed draw? value betting Ax or better? if it wasnt for the raise OTF, i would call here no questions asked.

my problem is that if we put ourselves in villain's shoes, you called his 3 bet and raised him OTF, then checked back turn, so if we are villain we think you have a SDV hand with which you plan to call down.

in that context, again in villain s shoes, when we choose to bet half pot by the river, our range will be more heavily weighted toward value then bluff imo.

pot is 1.60+1.53$+2.01$ = 5.14$ and you need to call 2.01$ more.

you need 28% equity to break even on a call, not 50%.

in this specific spot though, i dont think you can call. you beat no value hand of his, except maybe 54h but very unlikely given villain opened from utg.

finally, it is a huge stretch to expect villain to be bluffing anywhere near 25% of the time in this exact spot.

these kind of disgusting spot where you need to fold will pay off big time on your win rate if you can make the disciplined fold most of the time.

you have a clear fold here.

first of, there are no missed draw that would choose to bluff the river. the only reasonable draw was JT, and it got there on the turn. Maybe he could have something like KhTh but it is so unlikely that he float this hand OOP.

if villain has a made hand that you are ahead of, sayQT for instance, he would not bet the river. in fact, i cant see him turning any SDV hand into a bluff on this particular situation.

so to recap, no likely bluff range, no SDV hand that we beat... what you are left with here is hands that are value betting.

is there some chance you have th best hand here? yes maybe 5% or 10% of the time. problem is villain is potting the river.

so like a said, clear fold here.

kaptajnkold brings an interesting point, if you fold trips in that spot, what are you calling with?

if BTN is a whale, folding here would be criminal, the reason being that bad players make huge mistakes in multiway pot thinking hand value is the same as in heads up pot, well in my experience anyway.

he could have any hand with the A of diamond, any J, 10-8 of club, etc.

I shove all day here and thank the poker gods for whales when he calls with J10o, then breaks keyboard on the rivered T ;)

you need to 3bet preflop here.

regarding postflop, consider that UTG leads out into two player on a very dry board. what could he possibly have? well, unless you have some read on him that he is very loose pre UTG and aggro postflop, i dont see any merit to calling. i mean, you whiffed the flop bad, if he keeps betting a worse hand than yours, your never realizing your equity unless an A or K hits.

i cant think of how putting more money into the pot can be EV+.

opening smaller OTBTN is (was) meant to deal with agressive 3 betting from the blinds.

i dont think the 3 betting is that aggressive at nl10. sure, some players will do it, but they are easily spotted and most of them are easily outplayed postflop if you know how to defend properly.

plus, i feel like a lot of rega at the micros have adjust their game and will defend their SB and BB very wide to a 2x-2.5x open.

Regarding postflop play, villain doesn't have a very strong range here given his TAG style (of course small sample but we can assume he is some kind of reg with a decent 3 betting frequency).

yes, villain looks tighter than most, but i think it is still an easy call here. its not a big pot and he can definitely bet something else than Ax. a lot of the time he nas Ax, you will chop with him too.

weird spot, not many bluff hands make sense, but same can be said of the value ones.. thing is, if you only beat bluff and he doesnt have them oftrn in his range, i think the fold is correct

this aint the board to be fancy. if last to act you can float, if not, fold.

unless villain is pretty bad, he is leading a made hand into two people. sometimes, weaker player will do that with middle pair or a range thatt cant sustain a lot of pressure and can be taken away from it later in the hand, but on this kinda texture i doubt this play would work.

i have pt4 too. u need to copy the raw hand text, there is a small box for it in the replayer.

otr,i would try to get value from a smaller A on the river with a small bet, i am greedy like that...

assuming villain is a weaker player, wich i guess we can infer from his stack size, you expect him to call with a wide range your 3 bet preflop oop (or else, you would have flatted AQo right?)

if he gets to the flop with a wider range, one that AQo can get value from preflop in a 3 bet situation, then i think you should continue betting and expect a lot of fold.

why are we 3 betting preflop a perfectly good calling hand?
why are we floating the flop with awful equity?
why are we probing the turn when we just turned a FD and have a free river?

now the river is interesting, the problem with the bluff is the sizing. you have to be able to represent a 3 or a flush, the problem is none of these hands would use that sizing because of the paired board, well in my experience of NL10. That bet means the nuts or a bluff, or at least it is perceived that way, so you can't represent the hand that you want.

by betting half pot here, i would expect more fold on average and a big bump in EV.

not to discourage you from running these bluffs but, nl10 player tend to call incorrectly way way way more often then fold incorrectly.

you are selling to villain the fact that you have a set of A or K( tough sell frankly)

the problem here is that villain has AK and AQs as much as you do in his range, thus, when he has these cards, he figures there is a good chance you dont have the goods and therefore, your very polarized line is heavily weigted towards bluff - and so he calls down.

the other thing here is a balance problem. KQ has showdown value, so on the turn, you should be aiming to reach showdown.

for exemple, when i see a villain that understands SDV and the value of checking hands that can continue, i will take a note and will be very wary of value betting thin vs him or bluffing him OTT or river in smaller pots because i know he is just waiting to call down a lot of the time. with TP weak kicker.

the situation would be very different if villain was in th button and defended 3bets very often. then you range advantage would be bigger and going for the 3 barrel would make sense, well not with KQ obviously,

appart from grinder, the baluga whale book is pretty nice
cant go wrong with ed slansky theory of poker too.

small and medium pocket pairs play so bad oop that 3 betting them as bluff preflop cant be that bad vs CO and BTN because their ranges are wide, if they like to fold to 3bet that is. if not, it gets even worse playing these hands oop in a bloated pot so dont 3 bet.

Once called though, i almost never turn these hands into a bluff because they almost never have draws and blockers and they will have SDV quite often. And that is exactly what i think about your hand: bad spot to bluff all around.

on a side note, when villain is opening from UTG or MP, i prefer to flat and try to flop a set because the initial raiser has a tighter range, thus we have less chance to be squeezed light by the BB and have proper implied odds.