jjandellis

How I perceive Hero’s range FWIW:

https://gyazo.com/090296d171890a86a2d5900c09b2bb83

As you can see we have a very decent % of Tx

EDIT: Just realised ATo really shouldn’t be in here and the JTs should only be the 2 combos of dd/ss meaning we have 14 Tx combos in our own 106 combo range

A selection of thoughts and issues affecting our analysis (disjointed from seperate threads within the conversation):

Player 1: Imo it comes down to how often he gets to the river with QQ/KK/AA. If he 4bets pre or bets turn I think bluffing river becomes bad quickly.

Player 2: Think AA is always 4b with fish in there and KK at a dece freq. We actually have quite a lot of thin value on a river where he can still have TT. We would want to bet small with all our sets and 2p, then our J9s and Axs non straights to try and put overpairs in a tough spot. Also, he is very likely to check 88 on flop and bet 99 on turn so that is less of a concern.

Therefore by river we are actually betting like 85-90% of our range before even considering JJ, so I thought it made sense to avoid the range split by just betting range for like 1/3 and putting his overall range in a rough spot.

Player 3: Definitely a bluff spot. Id bet like 9k to 12k. You are at a large river advantage and need to get him to fold 88/99/JJ+.

Player 4: check fold river I think. probably just blocking with all non straight value hands, and would block qq aswell probably c.f jj seems best though.

He later adds:

no way we can bluff JJ IMO checking is no way 0 ev when we win sometimes and have plenty other bluffs.we are not folding out any better hands his sets very likely to bet the turn, we are not at huge range advantage, we prob only have j10ss and have prob equal amount of 10x except a few 109s combos Actually the more I think we def have more 10x but that doesent mean we can just bluff every single hand we have and expect him to fold 100% id expect KK to bet very often on turn, maybe even half the combos of QQ.. the problem is our hand we don’t want to block JJ! I think once Spanish fish checks 3 way in 3 bet pot he is giving up like >95% of the time though prob just try get it in vs btn on flop w sets yeah its why I don’t really have a cold calling range pre flop in these spots obvioulsly vs Spanish fish its fine though also turn advantage not that huge, we only have 108s prob no 6x 2 pair combos and we basically cap ourselves on flop when we check call we prob have slight nut advantage but not a range advantage IMo given how condensed and strong buttons range is but I need to look at this properly and overbluffing might be fine

Me: Yeah I think the hand mainly hinges on: a) is he REALLY all that likely to have KK? (the consensus appears to be no and is even more unlikely considering card removal if ranging utg1 ak a high%. It would make things a little more straightforward to work out if we removed from his range, as they make up 6/28 combos) b) whats the smallest we can go to make him fold out 88?

Hero replied to my comment as: I thought he might flat KK because the fish is never bluffing pre and he’s in a horrible spot if the fish 5b’s. Possible he just goes for a tiny 4b to isolate him most of the time though. If he has it pre he gets to river with it like this though, imo.

I posted up some intial numbers based on a liberal range, but amended these for simplicity to the range the hero assigns. In discussion I agreed my range was a little too wide (and more appropriate as an overcalling range) 88, TT-KK, AKs, AQss, KQss (suits only ss/dd)

We check, he checks back JJ (1), QQ (6), KK (6), AKs (2) – 15 combos. We win v2, chop v 1 and lose the rest. EV Win=2473, Chop = 618, Lose = 0. TOTAL EV = 3091

We check call when he bets 11k (60%) for value TT (6), 88 (3) – 9 combos. EV Lose = -7615
We check call when he bets 11k (60%) as bluff KQs,AQs – 4 combos. EV Win = 9092
Check fold = 0.
Total EV = 1477

TOTAL EV OF CHECKING = 4568

BETTING 12K
He calls: TT,88 – 9 combos = -3857
He folds 19 combos = +12587
Total EV = 8730

BOMBING 27.8k
• 28 of our 120 combos are Tx! So we can bluff this sizing with 11 more combos!
• Suggest he only calls TT (6 )
We jam and win 22/28 to win = 14575
We jam and cry 6/28 to lose = 5957
Total EV = 8618

HERO then queried numbers on betting 7k:

Seems very dependent on how you see it effecting his calling range. So if it doesn’t change then its +10347, however if he now calls with KK (or QQ, more likely) those 6 extra combos are pretty devastating and its now just +4862.

Alternatively betting POT:

I ran figures for a POT size bet and (assuming only calls TT) that would be 10600.

Really enjoyable video and great format.

Only minor issue I have with RIO vids is selection of white background/black writing on slides. In other environments we recognise that this is very tiring on the eyes and detracts from learning - we tend to choose blue background/yellow writing as its been shown to be kinder to the eyes. I might be wrong but I think green background might be similar too. Any chance of RIO addressing this?

Again, love the work and really need to book in for another session with you soon.

Lee

I've played these DTD things - you say it is hyper turbo? Are you referring to one of the last chance turbo day 1's?

FWIW I just fold pre, if I am playing it then I'm just 3B ripping it in his face. I think calling is absolutely the worst option pre here no matter who the villain. So to me: Fold > rip > call

Flop:
Now we're here, yeah XC is gonna be standard. Just bear in mind the pot size and consider how we are going to react on future streets.

Turn:
Donking is awful. You'r right, the turn doesn't change too much...so when you check he should bet again. However when you bet, you re-affirm the strength of your hand on this board ie. when he CB flop, you called - effectively telling you have some strength. When you lead into him, you are REALLY telling him you are strong. So you let him fold out all the hands you beat. You also now have considerably more SD value now. The only hands that should be calling/jamming versus u now have u beat.
IMO, we've made our bed with that awful preflop call..we now accept that we have to lie in it. The pot is ~20k, we have ~29k back. To me this is a simple check OTT, with a view to check jamming over his barrel. If not, then we can re-assess the river.

River:
Nah mate...again, just check...and if you really must then XC.
But my point is that the root of all the badness in this hand is pre flop. You get yourself deeper in the mire by donking turn.