jakethedog

Villain (170 hands)
SB PFR is 27%
Fold to 3bet (all positions) 62.5%
WTSD 26%
Won at showdown 22%
Total AFq 52%
Turn AFq 62.5%
River AFq 60%
Fold to cbet 75%
I can't provide more specific stats in 3bet pots because of the sample size.

I have only seen him show down one hand where he called BB vs MP 3x with KJs, checked through Jxx two tone board, he bet turn and check through river when flush missed.

I have played one other significant hand with him where he opened on the button, I 3bet AQo from the SB. He called and the flop came QJx rainbow. I bet the flop hpsb and he called. The turn came a K and it was checked through. The river was a Q, I bet ~1/3PSB and he called.

His PF range of (1-0.625)* 0.27 = 10% less AA, KK, AK, QQ, A5s {JJ-88, AQs-ATs, KTs+, QTs+, AQo-AJo, KQo}

I defined my range by checking back the turn, because I never would check back the turn with Qx. If I bet, I think he could still call with KT, KJ. I think he raises KQ on this flop a lot unless it is the KQcc (even then I think he would raise a decent amount of the time). I don't think he has a set here almost ever. I think there are just a ton of Qx in his range. AQ, QT, QJ primarily suited which are in his 3bet calling range. He could give me the correct odds to make a full house (though he seems competent and I doubt he is going crazy on a paired AKJT board). His turn range once he just calls the flop = {AQs, KTs, KJs, QTs, QJs, AQo}. Maybe I should add some set combos?

Optimal play: Bet small, 15bb to disguise my hand. Betting small keeps his range wide. If he check raises I can maintain stack depth (I can fold to a jam).

On the river we have a decent argument for bluff catching because I'm at the top of my non-nut range, but I chose to make an exploitable play and fold (I think I need to call with 66% of my range here to make his bluff with any two unprofitable, raising not withstanding). If he is thinking then it's correct to bluff here and I have to fold quite often. There aren't many flush draws in his 3bet calling range without Qx IMO, and his 2 pairs have show down value so it doesn't make sense to bet them. If I was in opponents shoes an overbet would be a great play here if he ever has a bluff (though it would have to be turning 2pr into a bluff i.e KTs)

Optimal play: Given I checked turn, I still like a fold exploitatively.