ploomg

My range is so strong, that Im not sure I should have a bet/folding range at all. Well, maybe we could bet very small with TT, AA25 and bluff some AKQ9-type hands. But this exact hand looks a bit too strong to bet/fold. As a matter of fact, I did put it on PJ and we are 39% against stackoff range of T+, pair+gutshot, wraps A25+. Unfortunately PJ doesnt calculate 3-way hands, but both opponents have stackoff hand about 58% of time, so we will win the pot outright 17,5% of time and having 39% other times (yes, sometimes we get it in 3-ways, but i think it doesnt change things too much) should be enough to GII?

Have to admit, I was quite surprised we had that much equity in the hand.

Not sure, if you were thinking about folding or raising pre. You absolutely cannot fold hand this strong and it doesnt really matter, if SB calls or not. You are equity favorite and get discounted odds, its a must defend.
Don`t like raising either, it would suck so much to get 4-bet (probably have to fold) and hand plays very well in srp 3-way.

BU range is very flush-heavy for sure on turn. You block middle set and top 2, so its very hard for him to have any kind of made hand on the flop. You still beat A34-type str8-draws, but most of those probably have fd to go with aswell to raise flop. I dont think he is folding any flush to your bet, so I dont see any reason to shove. Prefer checking and folding to a push, youll sometimes get a free card too, if he is timid enough to check a small flush.

Well, you are not pushing equity edge for sure, cause vs 30% range you are about 40/60. Also low rundowns playability is not that good actually, especially OOP. Fe.,if you hit 2 pair, it`s very vulnerable hand (compared to high 2 pairs). And with low str8/flush draw you are often dominated.

The main reason to play those hands is to protect your range and against opponents, who like to attack small boards, you can get into very profitable spots. But as said before, the raw equity and playability of those hands is not as good, as many ppl think.

I would still probably open 9875, but definitely fold 8743 and 5432.

I like just calling pre. There are a few flops you could possibly get away and fold. Of course not many, but in case it is Ah2h5h-type, you may do better by choosing to take a chance in the next 2 hands. Doesnt make much difference, but its still something.
In case you had only options to GII or fold, then I guess you unfortunately have to go with it.

Exactly the same thoughts, as xaxa. UTG can`t be floating on the rainbow-paired flop 2 players behind. I think he has 4x, KK, QQ at least 90% (the last 10% being some double-paired hands he decided to peel the flop).

Mostly for not letting him outdraw us so cheaply (flush-draw, worse 4x) and because I`m not sure he is going to bluff the river very often with only half pot bet left.

"Really there is only one hand which is AAxx that beats us that we would be bluffing out."

Mhmh, but OP hinted, that villains range consists 95% of AA, so we are trying to bluff him off of 95% hands :)
Maybe 95% is too high estimate, but his range is very AA-heavy, so we are not actually attacking one specific hand, but vast majority of his range.

Im not happy at all to call the river, but its so hard to lay down aswell. It would help to have some info about villain. He`s repping KK and he should have plenty of those in his range. Although with kings I think he may be raising a bit smaller on the flop to get some curiosity calls from AA.

I would probably ship the turn. If he was pure bluffing, he could have picked up a flushdraw and I don`t want him to get such a cheap price to beat us in a big pot. His sizing is pretty logical for this scenario.

I like your point, that its a weird spot for villain to be valuebetting the river, so I changed my mind from the first post - its not so hard at all to c/c. But yeah, it may still be more profitable to bluff.

I donthink you can valuebet it, cause its very hard to get called by worse hand, but it may be a good protection bet against quite many straight-draws villain may have.

Against flush you have anyway only 10% equity, so it`s not a big concern to get blown off the hand and majority of time you will still get a chance to realize your equity (villain is not going to c-r all his flushes).
Also tight opener, who folds often to 3b, should not have much lonely Ks in his OOP calling range, so we are not worried at all to get bluffed.

Flop hits villains tight range very well. You have a few very good turn cards (hearts, A, 6) and anything betweem 2-8 will probably let you to call turn bet. So it would be pretty bad thing to get c/r and I would suggest checking back.

On turn its tough to get value, but you need some protection against cc, gutshots. I dont think villain will bluffraise QQ&JJ very often, cause you have so many AA-combos and usually ppl don`t try to bluff you off top-set. On the other hand, villain probably should go for a c/r with QJ, so there definitely is a risk to get checkraised. Still QJ and decent semibl-ra hands like QQ:cc, JJ:cc only make about 22% of villains range (and he donks some QJ hands for sure aswell), so I probably prefer betting turn.

KK actually might be good, if villain has AKQ and AKdd type of hands. IP I would check back, but OOP it will be very hard to call, if villain decides to bet, so turning it into a bluff may be a reasonable idea.
Unfortunately you dont have any pair-blockers, but on the other hand, villain shouldnt have many two-pair combinations anyway. You dont block diamonds, which is a good thing, cause it makes it more probable villain has missed diamond draw. You can pretty credibly rep 89, JT, sets, so its pretty hard to call with AA. But many main draws missed aswell, so if villain is suspicious type, he may still call you.

Intresting spot. At first glance I wanted to check, but whrn thinking it through, I`m leaning towards a $15 bet.

Sure you can call, youve got excellent odds of 1:4,4 so you only need to win about 18,5% of the time. You may have reverse implied odds though, its hard to get action on hearts and it`s not clear, what should you do, when board pairs. But anyway, with those odds you just have to call.

I`m probably just check-folding. Feels very weak, but the flop hits their ranges (especially button) very well and we missed completly (got a bdoor fd though).
At 100bb it could be close between jamming and folding, but now I just give up.

I dont think we have to fold that many turns. Heres equity distribution on turn (if he cbets aa,hh,QJT+,AA:(T,Q),T79+,J8+)

If we take closer look to hearts (large portion of hands we don`t have enough equity to continue), then he holds hh or naked Ah 50% of the time, so about 50% of time, when heart hits, we will get a free card or opportunity to bluff (turn or river), so we can block some of his equity aswell.

Also sometimes he bets small on blank turns, sometimes even checks and we have no problem to realize our equity.

I totally agree with you, that none of our options is thrilling, but I think peeling and playing the turn is the best choice here IP. The same hand OOP I`m probably jamming.

What about peeling? We are IP and getting nice odds.

We can fold on turn, when heart hits (or maybe bluff small, if he checks?). Probably should fold on J and 8 too.
We can probably call all other cards, jam A, 9, K,2 and possibly clubs? It actually gets weird only on Ts, Td, Qs and if he bets big on those, then we can just fold (although we`re sometimes wrong, when he bluffs with AA-blockers)?

Also, what kind of bluffs/semibluffs will you small bet here ?

Smth like QJTx, JsJT9, T987ss

I like betting smallish (40-45%). We have huge range advantage (much more AA, KK, AK, than wide opening BU) and we have some bluffs/semibluffs we would like to bet small aswell.
And it works quite well for our actual hand too. We shouldnt get raised much at all (villain doesnt have many AA-combos and even with KK he will very often just call). If it happens, it obv sucks and we probably have to fold, but we shouldn`t be worried too much about a thing, that happens very seldomly.
Also betting smallish will keep in dominated flushdraws.

On the other hand, checking looks reasonable play aswell, cause we don`t have to protect against anything (we have 2nd nut fd and we block str8-draws with QQ), it strengthens our checking range and may induce a bet from opponent hand, that has very little equity.

Its actually 67+:4+, meaning nut-openender (67 or better, including all wraps) AND a pair. I think jamming Kcc is pretty reasonable, its hard to play as a c-c and most of the time you got something to go with it. It also doesn`t affect results too much, cause we are probably about coinflip against Kcc.

If opponents PF range is $FI20 minus AA and flop stacking off range kcc+,cc:4+,cc:23+,67+:4+,45+, then shoving EV is +$1.85.

I would rather peel and fold the river, if diamond hits. Not sure about K,J,9 rivers though, possibly should fold those too, or at least K.
Also sometimes, when scare card hits, you will get a free showdown against QT and sets or may even turn your hand into bluff. At least Kd and Jd would be pretty nice bluffing cards, cause you block high diamond and nut-straight.

Don`t think jamming will be profitable. Did a simulation in PJ, and against following ranges

P: $FI30
F: t+,j9+,5+:98+,ddcc,ddss,qqss
T: q5+,q+:dd,j9+:dd,t+:add

is shoving EV -$3.31

It was K-6-5-3 on a A-9-5-3-K rainbow board. I think the river valuebet is way too thin. There is only 1 reasonable draw, that didn`t get there (6-7-8 wrap), so it looks pretty suicidal for him to call with a naked ace. The bet may serve as a bluff though, as he may fold K-9 :)

That sounds absolutely amazing! Thanks for making this suggestion, hopefully PLO guys will get inspired!

4:45 table 2, QT95 on T-4-2 board.
I think this raise is too spewy. It would be fine HU and maybe 3-way, but villain bets into 4(!) opponents, he`s range is smth like t2+, a35+, t+:35+ (and possibly t+:a3+, 2+:35+), he probably is never folding and we have 32% against this range. Half pot bet indicates his range is probably leaned toward draws, so maybe we should call and play the turn IP? We can continue any diamond, T,Q,9,8,J (and sometimes K,5).
Are you calling, if he shoves flop?

31.30 A-3-3-3 on 2-3-6 board. I really think we need to fold flop. Its so hard for us to scoop the pot or even to realize our equity. With A4,A5 and 45 our opponent has pretty much locked one half and can easily barrell us. Ok, when 4 or 5 comes, we sometimes 3/4 him, but we cant valuebet those cards anyway. There is $6 in the pot and if he bets pot all streets, we will need to risk ~$75 to win $3 (half of the pot on the flop), i dont think its worth it.

Ok, thx. Maybe it`s my leak to give up too early with this kind of hands.

The very last hand AJ77 on A3963 board when you fired 3 barrels against pre-flop raiser, who checked the flop oop. You said the turn bet is bad, because you can`t make any better hands to fold. I was wondering, if it`s standard for him (or most of players) to call with naked AK**, AQ** there? I am folding AKQ*, so for me turn bet looks ok. Any thoughts about that? 

Agree, that the river bet is horrible.

Thanks!

Hi Tom, could you add the impact of the rake into your RFE formula? I think it will change the numbers quite a bit at smaller stakes? Thanks!